Burden of disease scenarios by state in the USA, 2022–50: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: The capacity to anticipate future health issues is important for both policy makers and practitioners in the USA, as such insights can facilitate effective planning, investment, and implementation strategies. Forecasting trends in disease and injury burden is not only crucial for policy makers but also garners substantial interest from the general populace and leads to a better-informed public. Through the integration of new data sources, the refinement of methodologies, and the inclusion of additional causes, we have improved our previous forecasting efforts within the scope of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to produce forecasts at the state and national levels for the USA under various possible scenarios. Methods: We developed a comprehensive framework for forecasting life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 359 causes of disease and injury burden from 2022 to 2050 for the USA and all 50 states and Washington, DC. Using the GBD 2021 Future Health Scenarios modelling framework, we forecasted drivers of disease, demographic drivers, risk factors, temperature and particulate matter, mortality and years of life lost (YLL), population, and non-fatal burden. In addition to a reference scenario (representing the most probable future trajectory), we explored various future scenarios and their potential impacts over the next several decades on human health. These alternative scenarios comprised four risk elimination scenarios (including safer environment, improved behavioural and metabolic risks, improved childhood nutrition and vaccination, and a combined scenario) and three USA-specific scenarios based on risk exposure or attributable burden in the best-performing US states (improved high adult BMI and high fasting plasma glucose [FPG], improved smoking, and improved drug use [encompassing opioids, cocaine, amphetamine, and others]). Findings: Life expectancy in the USA is projected to increase from 78·3 years (95% uncertainty interval 78·1–78·5) in 2022 to 79·9 years (79·5–80·2) in 2035, and to 80·4 years (79·8–81·0) in 2050 for all sexes combined. This increase is forecasted to be modest compared with that in other countries around the world, resulting in the USA declining in global rank over the 2022–50 forecasted period among the 204 countries and territories in GBD, from 49th to 66th. There is projected to be a decline in female life expectancy in West Virginia between 1990 and 2050, and little change in Arkansas and Oklahoma. Additionally, after 2023, we projected almost no change in female life expectancy in many states, notably in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Iowa, Maine, and Wisconsin. Female HALE is projected to decline between 1990 and 2050 in 20 states and to remain unchanged in three others. Drug use disorders and low back pain are projected to be the leading Level 3 causes of age-standardised DALYs in 2050. The age-standardised DALY rate due to drug use disorders is projected to increase considerably between 2022 and 2050 (19·5% [6·9–34·1]). Our combined risk elimination scenario shows that the USA could gain 3·8 additional years (3·6–4·0) of life expectancy and 4·1 additional years (3·9–4·3) of HALE in 2050 versus the reference scenario. Using our USA-specific scenarios, we forecasted that the USA could gain 0·4 additional years (0·3–0·6) of life expectancy and 0·6 additional years (0·5–0·8) of HALE in 2050 under the improved drug use scenario relative to the reference scenario. Life expectancy and HALE are likewise projected to be 0·4–0·5 years higher in 2050 under the improved adult BMI and FPG and improved smoking scenarios compared with the reference scenario. However, the increases in these scenarios would not substantially improve the USA's global ranking in 2050 (from 66th of 204 in life expectancy in the reference scenario to 63rd–64th in each of the three USA-specific scenarios), indicating that the USA's best-performing states are still lagging behind other countries in their rank throughout the forecasted period. Regardless, an estimated 12·4 million (11·3–13·5) deaths could be averted between 2022 and 2050 if the USA were to follow the combined scenario trajectory rather than the reference scenario. There would also be 1·4 million (0·7–2·2) fewer deaths over the 28-year forecasted period with improved adult BMI and FPG, 2·1 million (1·3–2·9) fewer deaths with improved exposure to smoking, and 1·2 million (0·9–1·5) fewer deaths with lower rates of drug use deaths. Interpretation: Our findings highlight the alarming trajectory of health challenges in the USA, which, if left unaddressed, could lead to a reversal of the health progress made over the past three decades for some US states and a decline in global health standing for all states. The evidence from our alternative scenarios along with other published studies suggests that through collaborative, evidence-based strategies, there are opportunities to change the trajectory of health outcomes in the USA, such as by investing in scientific innovation, health-care access, preventive health care, risk exposure reduction, and education. Our forecasts clearly show that the time to act is now, as the future of the country's health and wellbeing—as well as its prosperity and leadership position in science and innovation—are at stake. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition in Cancer: Parallels Between Normal Development and Tumor Progression

From the earliest stages of embryonic development, cells of epithelial and mesenchymal origin contribute to the structure and function of developing organs. However, these phenotypes are not always permanent, and instead, under the appropriate conditions, epithelial and mesenchymal cells convert between these two phenotypes. These processes, termed Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition (EMT), or the reverse Mesenchymal-Epithelial Transition (MET), are required for complex body patterning and morphogenesis. In addition, epithelial plasticity and the acquisition of invasive properties without the full commitment to a mesenchymal phenotype are critical in development, particularly during branching morphogenesis in the mammary gland. Recent work in cancer has identified an analogous plasticity of cellular phenotypes whereby epithelial cancer cells acquire mesenchymal features that permit escape from the primary tumor. Because local invasion is thought to be a necessary first step in metastatic dissemination, EMT and epithelial plasticity are hypothesized to contribute to tumor progression. Similarities between developmental and oncogenic EMT have led to the identification of common contributing pathways, suggesting that the reactivation of developmental pathways in breast and other cancers contributes to tumor progression. For example, developmental EMT regulators including Snail/Slug, Twist, Six1, and Cripto, along with developmental signaling pathways including TGF-β and Wnt/β-catenin, are misexpressed in breast cancer and correlate with poor clinical outcomes. This review focuses on the parallels between epithelial plasticity/EMT in the mammary gland and other organs during development, and on a selection of developmental EMT regulators that are misexpressed specifically during breast cancer

Prevalence of the rs1801282 single nucleotide polymorphism of the PPARG gene in patients with metabolic syndrome

Objective: this study aimed to get the genotypic and allelic frequencies of rs1801282 in 179 volunteer donors and 154 patients with Metabolic syndrome (MetS) in Brasilia, Brazil and also examine the association with anthropometric, biochemical and hemodynamic variables in the latter group. MetS comprises a group of diseases resulting from insulin resistance, in-creased risk of type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. MetS is defined by the presence of increased visceral fat, atherogenic dyslipidemia (elevated triglycerides (TGL)), with decreased high density lipoprotein (HDL) and increased low density lipoprotein (LDL) levels, hypertension (BPH) and disturbances in glucose homeostasis representing a significant burden across the world due to the alarming increase in the incidence over the last decades besides their significant morbidity and mortality. Peroxisome proliferator activated receptor-gamma (PPARg) has been mentioned as a candidate gene for determining the risk of MetS. It is a member of the nuclear receptors superfamily and a ligand-activated transcription factor, which regulates the expression of genes involved in the network lipogenesis and adipogenesis, insulin sensitivity, energy balance, inflammation, angiogenesis and atherosclerosis. Among the PPARG genetic variants, single nucleotide polymorphism rs1801282 has been the most extensively studied one since it was first described by Yen and cols. in 1997. This polymorphism is characterized by the replacement of a proline (CCC) to an alanine (GCA) at codon 12 of exon B, due to the exchange of a cytosine with a guanine. The Ala allele frequency varies in different ethnic groups. Materials and methods: DNA was extracted using Chelex-100 method and determinations of genotypes were performed by allele-specific chain reaction. Results: the distribution of genotype frequency of the MetS group was not statistically different from the frequency in the donor population at large. In the first group, genotype frequency was CC to 0.869 and 0.103 for CG, while allelic frequencies were 0.948 for C and 0.052 for G allele. In the group of donors, the genotype and allele frequencies were 0.882 for CC, 0.117 to CG; and 0.941 to 0.059 for G and C, respectively. GG genotype was not found in any of the two groups. The genotype distribution and allele frequencies were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. No marker could be detected from the analysis of anthropometric, biochemical and hemodynamic variables in the MetS group. Conclusion: our data suggest that this polymorphism is not correlated with predisposition to MetS. The results obtained on a small sample of the population of Brasilia, corroborate the data reported in the literature on the prevalence of this polymorphism in PPAR in populations of different ethnic origins

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

The environmental impacts of palm oil in context

Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires balancing demands on land between agriculture (SDG 2) and biodiversity (SDG 15). The production of vegetable oils, and in particular palm oil, illustrates these competing demands and trade-offs. Palm oil accounts for 40% of the current global annual demand for vegetable oil as food, animal feed, and fuel (210 million tons (Mt)), but planted oil palm covers less than 5-5.5% of total global oil crop area (ca. 425 Mha), due to oil palm’s relatively high yields5. Recent oil palm expansion in forested regions of Borneo, Sumatra, and the Malay Peninsula, where >90% of global palm oil is produced, has led to substantial concern around oil palm’s role in deforestation. Oil palm expansion’s direct contribution to regional tropical deforestation varies widely, ranging from 3% in West Africa to 47% in Malaysia. Oil palm is also implicated in peatland draining and burning in Southeast Asia. Documented negative environmental impacts from such expansion include biodiversity declines, greenhouse gas emissions, and air pollution. However, oil palm generally produces more oil per area than other oil crops, is often economically viable in sites unsuitable for most other crops, and generates considerable wealth for at least some actors. Global demand for vegetable oils is projected to increase by 46% by 20509. Meeting this demand through additional expansion of oil palm versus other vegetable oil crops will lead to substantial differential effects on biodiversity, food security, climate change, land degradation, and livelihoods. Our review highlights that, although substantial gaps remain in our understanding of the relationship between the environmental, socio-cultural and economic impacts of oil palm, and the scope, stringency and effectiveness of initiatives to address these, there has been little research into the impacts and trade-offs of other vegetable oil crops. 65 Greater research attention needs to be given to investigating the impacts of palm oil production 66 compared to alternatives for the trade-offs to be assessed at a global scale