Raising argument strength using negative evidence: A constraint on models of induction

Both intuitively, and according to similarity-based theories of induction, relevant evidence raises argument strength when it is positive and lowers it when it is negative. In three experiments, we tested the hypothesis that argument strength can actually increase when negative evidence is introduced. Two kinds of argument were compared through forced choice or sequential evaluation: single positive arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”) and double mixed arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain, X’s music DOES NOT; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”). Negative evidence in the second premise lowered credence when it applied to an item X from the same subcategory (e.g., Haydn) and raised it when it applied to a different subcategory (e.g., AC/DC). The results constitute a new constraint on models of induction

What do γ\gamma-ray bursts look like?

There have been great and rapid progresses in the field of $\gamma$-ray bursts (denoted as GRBs) since BeppoSAX and other telescopes discovered their afterglows in 1997. Here, we will first give a brief review on the observational facts of GRBs and direct understanding from these facts, which lead to the standard fireball model. The dynamical evolution of the fireball is discussed, especially a generic model is proposed to describe the whole dynamical evolution of GRB remnant from highly radiative to adiabatic, and from ultra-relativistic to non-relativistic phase. Then, Various deviations from the standard model are discussed to give new information about GRBs and their environment. In order to relax the energy crisis, the beaming effects and their possible observational evidences are also discussed in GRB's radiations.Comment: 10 pages, Latex. Invited talk at the Pacific Rim Conference on Stellar Astrophysics, Hong Kong, China, Aug. 199

The sub-energetic GRB 031203 as a cosmic analogue to GRB 980425

Over the six years since the discovery of the gamma-ray burst GRB 980425, associated with the nearby (distance, ~40 Mpc) supernova 1998bw, astronomers have fiercely debated the nature of this event. Relative to bursts located at cosmological distances, (redshift, z~1), GRB 980425 was under-luminous in gamma-rays by three orders of magnitude. Radio calorimetry showed the explosion was sub-energetic by a factor of 10. Here, we report observations of the radio and X-ray afterglow of the recent z=0.105 GRB 031203 and demonstrate that it too is sub-energetic. Our result, when taken together with the low gamma-ray luminosity, suggest that GRB 031203 is the first cosmic analogue to GRB 980425. We find no evidence that this event was a highly collimated explosion viewed off-axis. Like GRB 980425, GRB 031203 appears to be an intrinsically sub-energetic gamma-ray burst. Such sub-energetic events have faint afterglows. Intensive follow-up of faint bursts with smooth gamma-ray light curves (common to both GRBs 031203 and 980425) may enable us to reveal their expected large population.Comment: To Appear in Nature, August 5, 200

Risk stratification by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing improves outcomes following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery : a cohort study

Background: In 2009, the NHS evidence adoption center and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) published a review of the use of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). They recommended the development of a risk-assessment tool to help identify AAA patients with greater or lesser risk of operative mortality and to contribute to mortality prediction. A low anaerobic threshold (AT), which is a reliable, objective measure of pre-operative cardiorespiratory fitness, as determined by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is associated with poor surgical outcomes for major abdominal surgery. We aimed to assess the impact of a CPET-based risk-stratification strategy upon perioperative mortality, length of stay and non-operative costs for elective (open and endovascular) infra-renal AAA patients. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was undertaken. Pre-operative CPET-based selection for elective surgical intervention was introduced in 2007. An anonymized cohort of 230 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2007 to 2011) was studied. A historical control group of 128 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2003 to 2007) was identified for comparison. Comparative analysis of demographic and outcome data for CPET-pass (AT ≥ 11 ml/kg/min), CPET-fail (AT < 11 ml/kg/min) and CPET-submaximal (no AT generated) subgroups with control subjects was performed. Primary outcomes included 30-day mortality, survival and length of stay (LOS); secondary outcomes were non-operative inpatient costs. Results: Of 230 subjects, 188 underwent CPET: CPET-pass n = 131, CPET-fail n = 35 and CPET-submaximal n = 22. When compared to the controls, CPET-pass patients exhibited reduced median total LOS (10 vs 13 days for open surgery, n = 74, P < 0.01 and 4 vs 6 days for EVAR, n = 29, P < 0.05), intensive therapy unit requirement (3 vs 4 days for open repair only, P < 0.001), non-operative costs (£5,387 vs £9,634 for open repair, P < 0.001) and perioperative mortality (2.7% vs 12.6% (odds ratio: 0.19) for open repair only, P < 0.05). CPET-stratified (open/endovascular) patients exhibited a mid-term survival benefit (P < 0.05). Conclusion: In this retrospective cohort study, a pre-operative AT > 11 ml/kg/min was associated with reduced perioperative mortality (open cases only), LOS, survival and inpatient costs (open and endovascular repair) for elective infra-renal AAA surgery

Relativistic ejecta from XRF 060218 and the rate of cosmic explosions

Over the last decade, long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) including the subclass of X-ray flashes (XRFs) have been revealed to be a rare variety of Type Ibc supernova (SN). While all these events result from the death of massive stars, the electromagnetic luminosities of GRBs and XRFs exceed those of ordinary Type Ibc SNe by many orders of magnitude. The essential physical process that causes a dying star to produce a GRB or XRF, and not just an SN, remains the crucial open question. Here we present radio and X-ray observations of XRF 060218 (associated with SN 2006aj), the second nearest GRB identified to-date, which allow us to measure its total energy and place it in the larger context of cosmic explosions. We show that this event is 100 times less energetic but ten times more common than cosmological GRBs. Moreover, it is distinguished from ordinary Type Ibc SNe by the presence of 10^48 erg coupled to mildly-relativistic ejecta, along with a central engine (an accretion-fed, rapidly rotating compact source) which produces X-rays for weeks after the explosion. This suggests that the production of relativistic ejecta is the key physical distinction between GRBs/XRFs and ordinary SNe, while the nature of the central engine (black hole or magnetar) may distinguish typical bursts from low-luminosity, spherical events like XRF 060218.Comment: To appear in Nature on August 31 2006 (15 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, including Supplementary Information

Efficacy of a multifaceted podiatry intervention to improve balance and prevent falls in older people: study protocol for a randomised trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Falls in older people are a major public health problem, with at least one in three people aged over 65 years falling each year. There is increasing evidence that foot problems and inappropriate footwear increase the risk of falls, however no studies have been undertaken to determine whether modifying these risk factors decreases the risk of falling. This article describes the design of a randomised trial to evaluate the efficacy of a multifaceted podiatry intervention to reduce foot pain, improve balance, and reduce falls in older people.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three hundred community-dwelling men and women aged 65 years and over with current foot pain and an increased risk of falling will be randomly allocated to a control or intervention group. The "usual cae" control group will receive routine podiatry (i.e. nail care and callus debridement). The intervention group will receive usual care plus a multifaceted podiatry intervention consisting of: (i) prefabricated insoles customised to accommodate plantar lesions; (ii) footwear advice and assistance with the purchase of new footwear if current footwear is inappropriate; (iii) a home-based exercise program to strengthen foot and ankle muscles; and (iv) a falls prevention education booklet. Primary outcome measures will be the number of fallers, number of multiple fallers and the falls rate recorded by a falls diary over a 12 month period. Secondary outcome measures assessed six months after baseline will include the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 12 (SF-12), the Manchester Foot Pain and Disability Index, the Falls Efficacy Scale International, and a series of balance and functional tests. Data will be analysed using the intention to treat principle.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study is the first randomised trial to evaluate the efficacy of podiatry in improving balance and preventing falls. The trial has been pragmatically designed to ensure that the findings can be generalised to clinical practice. If found to be effective, the multifaceted podiatry intervention will be a unique addition to common falls prevention strategies already in use.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12608000065392</p

A discrete choice experiment to explore patients’ willingness to risk disease relapse from treatment withdrawal in psoriatic arthritis

The objective of this study is to assess patient preferences for treatment-related benefits and risk of disease relapse in the management of low disease states of psoriatic arthritis (PsA). Focus groups with patients and a literature review were undertaken to determine the characteristics of treatment and symptoms of PsA important to patients. Patient preferences were assessed using a discrete choice experiment which compared hypothetical treatment profiles of the risk and benefits of treatment withdrawal. The risk outcome included increased risk of disease relapse, while benefit outcomes included reduced sickness/nausea from medication and changes in health-related quality of life. Each patient completed 12 choice sets comparing treatment profiles. Preference weights were estimated using a logic regression model, and the maximum acceptable risk in disease relapse for a given improvement in benefit outcomes was elicited. Final sample included 136 patients. Respondents attached the greatest importance to eliminating severe side effects of sickness/nausea and the least importance to a change in risk of relapse. Respondents were willing to accept an increase in the risk of relapse of 32.6 % in order to eliminate the side effects of sickness/nausea. For improvements in health status, the maximum acceptable risk in relapse was comparable to a movement from some to no sickness/nausea. The study suggests that patients in low disease states of PsA are willing to accept greater risks of relapse for improvements in side effects of sickness/nausea and overall health status, with the most important benefit attribute being the elimination of severe sickness or nausea

SN 2018fif: The explosion of a large red supergiant discovered in its infancy by the Zwicky transient facility

High-cadence transient surveys are able to capture supernovae closer to their first light than ever before. Applying analytical models to such early emission, we can constrain the progenitor stars’ properties. In this paper, we present observations of SN 2018fif (ZTF 18abokyfk). The supernova was discovered close to first light and monitored by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. Early spectroscopic observations suggest that the progenitor of SN 2018fif was surrounded by relatively small amounts of circumstellar material compared to all previous cases. This particularity, coupled with the high-cadence multiple-band coverage, makes it a good candidate to investigate using shock-cooling models. We employ the SOPRANOS code, an implementation of the model by Sapir &amp; Waxman and its extension to early times by Morag et al. Compared with previous implementations, SOPRANOS has the advantage of including a careful account of the limited temporal validity domain of the shock-cooling model as well as allowing usage of the entirety of the early UV data. We find that the progenitor of SN 2018fif was a large red supergiant with a radius of R = 744.0-+128.0183.0 R☉ and an ejected mass of Mej = 9.3-+5.80.4 M☉. Our model also gives information on the explosion epoch, the progenitor’s inner structure, the shock velocity, and the extinction. The distribution of radii is double-peaked, with smaller radii corresponding to lower values of the extinction, earlier recombination times, and a better match to the early UV data. If these correlations persist in future objects, denser spectroscopic monitoring constraining the time of recombination, as well as accurate UV observations (e.g., with ULTRASAT), will help break the extinction/radius degeneracy and independently determine both

Labelling and Family Resemblance in the discrimination of polymorphous categories by pigeons

publication-status: Acceptedtypes: Article© 2011 Springer Verlag. This is a post print version of the article published in Animal Cognition, 2011, 14 (1), pp 21-34. The final publication is available at link.springer.comTwo experiments examined whether pigeons discriminate polymorphous categories on the basis of a single highly predictive feature or overall similarity. In the first experiment, pigeons were trained to discriminate between categories of photographs of complex real objects. Within these pictures, single features had been manipulated to produce a highly salient texture cue. Either the picture or the texture provided a reliable cue for discrimination during training, but in probe tests, the picture and texture cues were put into conflict. Some pigeons showed a significant tendency to discriminate on the basis of the picture cue (overall similarity or family resemblance), whereas others appeared to rely on the manipulated texture cue. The second experiment used artificial polymorphous categories in which one dimension of the stimulus provided a completely reliable cue to category membership, whereas three other dimensions provided cues that were individually unreliable but collectively provided a completely reliable basis for discrimination. Most pigeons came under the control of the reliable cue rather than the unreliable cues. A minority, however, came under the control of single dimensions from the unreliable set. We conclude that cue salience can be more important than cue reliability in determining what features will control behavior when multiple cues are available