Do State Pension Investments Generate Positive Alphas?

In our initial analysis of the state pension investment return data set we found that investments outperformed many market indices on both an absolute and risk adjusted basis. Our goal in this paper was to confirm our prior findings using several models including the Capital Asset Pricing Model, Fama French three-factor, and five-factor models and the Carhart four-factor model. We regressed our equal-weighted and weighted-average pension investment return data on each of the models. All our regressions produced positive and significant alphas. We then performed panel regressions using the individual returns from all 85 pension plans in our data set against the same set of models. Again, we found positive and significant alphas using both models. Finally, we employed a bootstrapping procedure to confirm that alphas in our time series regressions were positive and significant. We find that state pension plans do generate positive alphas

Melissa W. Nash Correspondence

Entries include a typed letter on personal stationery with advice on how to locate the biographical information of Newton and his fellow authors within the pages of his book

Toxoplasma effectors targeting host signaling and transcription

Early electron microscopy studies revealed the elaborate cellular features that define the unique adaptations of apicomplexan parasites. Among these were bulbous rhoptry (ROP) organelles and small, dense granules (GRAs), both of which are secreted during invasion of host cells. These early morphological studies were followed by the exploration of the cellular contents of these secretory organelles, revealing them to be comprised of highly divergent protein families with few conserved domains or predicted functions. In parallel, studies on host-pathogen interactions identified many host signaling pathways that were mysteriously altered by infection. It was only with the advent of forward and reverse genetic strategies that the connections between individual parasite effectors and the specific host pathways that they targeted finally became clear. The current repertoire of parasite effectors includes ROP kinases and pseudokinases that are secreted during invasion and that block host immune pathways. Similarly, many secretory GRA proteins alter host gene expression by activating host transcription factors, through modification of chromatin, or by inducing small noncoding RNAs. These effectors highlight novel mechanisms by whichhas learned to harness host signaling to favor intracellular survival and will guide future studies designed to uncover the additional complexity of this intricate host-pathogen interaction

Toward Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using Seismic Noise

During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to measure relative seismic velocity variations of less than 0.1 % with a temporal resolution of one day. Our results show that five studied volcanic eruptions were preceded by clearly detectable seismic velocity decreases within the zone of magma injection. These precursors reflect the edifice dilatation induced by magma pressurization and can be useful indicators to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions.Comment: Supplementary information: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguier_SI.pdf Supplementary video: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguierMovieVolcano.av

Evaluating treatments in health care: The instability of a one-legged stool

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Both scientists and the public routinely refer to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) as being the 'gold standard' of scientific evidence. Although there is no question that placebo-controlled RCTs play a significant role in the evaluation of new pharmaceutical treatments, especially when it is important to rule out placebo effects, they have many inherent limitations which constrain their ability to inform medical decision making. The purpose of this paper is to raise questions about <it>over-reliance </it>on RCTs and to point out an additional perspective for evaluating healthcare evidence, as embodied in the Hill criteria. The arguments presented here are generally relevant to all areas of health care, though mental health applications provide the primary context for this essay.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This article first traces the history of RCTs, and then evaluates five of their major limitations: they often lack external validity, they have the potential for increasing health risk in the general population, they are no less likely to overestimate treatment effects than many other methods, they make a relatively weak contribution to clinical practice, and they are excessively expensive (leading to several additional vulnerabilities in the quality of evidence produced). Next, the nine Hill criteria are presented and discussed as a richer approach to the evaluation of health care treatments. Reliance on these multi-faceted criteria requires more analytical thinking than simply examining RCT data, but will also enhance confidence in the evaluation of novel treatments.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Excessive reliance on RCTs tends to stifle funding of other types of research, and publication of other forms of evidence. We call upon our research and clinical colleagues to consider additional methods of evaluating data, such as the Hill criteria. Over-reliance on RCTs is similar to resting all of health care evidence on a one-legged stool.</p

Increased Local Retention of Reef Coral Larvae as a Result of Ocean Warming

Climate change will alter many aspects of the ecology of organisms, including dispersal patterns and population connectivity. Understanding these changes is essential to predict future species distributions, estimate potential for adaptation, and design effective networks of protected areas. In marine environments, dispersal is often accomplished by larvae. At higher temperatures, larvae develop faster, but suffer higher mortality, making the effect of temperature on dispersal difficult to predict. Here, we experimentally calibrate the effect of temperature on larval survival and settlement in a dynamic model of coral dispersal. Our findings imply that most reefs globally will experience several-fold increases in local retention of larvae due to ocean warming. This increase will be particularly pronounced for reefs with mean water residence times comparable to the time required for species to become competent to settle. Higher local retention rates strengthen the link between abundance and recruitment at the reef scale, suggesting that populations will be more responsive to local conservation actions. Higher rates of local retention and mortality will weaken connectivity between populations, and thus potentially retard recovery following severe disturbances that substantially deplete local populations. Conversely, on isolated reefs that are dependent on replenishment from local broodstock, increases in local retention may hasten recovery

Factors contributing to attrition behavior in diabetes self-management programs: A mixed method approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diabetes self-management education is a critical component in diabetes care. Despite worldwide efforts to develop efficacious DSME programs, high attrition rates are often reported in clinical practice. The objective of this study was to examine factors that may contribute to attrition behavior in diabetes self-management programs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted telephone interviews with individuals who had Type 2 diabetes (n = 267) and attended a diabetes education centre. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with attrition behavior. Forty-four percent of participants (n = 118) withdrew prematurely from the program and were asked an open-ended question regarding their discontinuation of services. We used content analysis to code and generate themes, which were then organized under the Behavioral Model of Health Service Utilization.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Working full and part-time, being over 65 years of age, having a regular primary care physician or fewer diabetes symptoms were contributing factors to attrition behaviour in our multivariable logistic regression. The most common reasons given by participants for attrition from the program were conflict between their work schedules and the centre's hours of operation, patients' confidence in their own knowledge and ability when managing their diabetes, apathy towards diabetes education, distance to the centre, forgetfulness, regular physician consultation, low perceived seriousness of diabetes, and lack of familiarity with the centre and its services. There was considerable overlap between our quantitative and qualitative results.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Reducing attrition behaviour requires a range of strategies targeted towards delivering convenient and accessible services, familiarizing individuals with these services, increasing communication between centres and their patients, and creating better partnerships between centres and primary care physicians.</p

Adverse childhood experiences and mental health in young adults: a longitudinal survey

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been consistently linked to psychiatric difficulties in children and adults. However, the long-term effects of ACEs on mental health during the early adult years have been understudied. In addition, many studies are methodologically limited by use of non-representative samples, and few studies have investigated gender and racial differences. The current study relates self-reported lifetime exposure to a range of ACEs in a community sample of high school seniors to three mental health outcomes–depressive symptoms, drug abuse, and antisocial behavior–two years later during the transition to adulthood. METHODS: The study has a two-wave, prospective design. A systematic probability sample of high school seniors (N = 1093) was taken from communities of diverse socioeconomic status. They were interviewed in person in 1998 and over the telephone two years later. Gender and racial differences in ACE prevalence were tested with chi-square tests. Each mental health outcome was regressed on one ACE, controlling for gender, race/ethnicity, and SES to obtain partially standardized regression coefficients. RESULTS: Most ACEs were strongly associated with all three outcomes. The cumulative effect of ACEs was significant and of similar magnitude for all three outcomes. Except for sex abuse/assault, significant gender differences in the effects of single ACEs on depression and drug use were not observed. However, boys who experienced ACEs were more likely to engage in antisocial behavior early in young adulthood than girls who experienced similar ACEs. Where racial/ethnic differences existed, the adverse mental health impact of ACEs on Whites was consistently greater than on Blacks and Hispanics. CONCLUSION: Our sample of young adults from urban, socio-economically disadvantaged communities reported high rates of adverse childhood experiences. The public health impact of childhood adversity is evident in the very strong association between childhood adversity and depressive symptoms, antisocial behavior, and drug use during the early transition to adulthood. These findings, coupled with evidence that the impact of major childhood adversities persists well into adulthood, indicate the critical need for prevention and intervention strategies targeting early adverse experiences and their mental health consequences