Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models

Cloud condensation nuclei as a modulator of ice processes in Arctic mixed-phase clouds

We propose that cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations are important for modulating ice formation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds, through modification of the droplet size distribution. Aircraft observations from the Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) study in northern Alaska in April 2008 allow for identification and characterization of both aerosol and trace gas pollutants, which are then compared with cloud microphysical properties. Consistent with previous studies, we find that the concentration of precipitating ice particles (>400 μm) is correlated with the concentration of large droplets (>30 μm). We are further able to link the observed microphysical conditions to aerosol pollution, originating mainly from long range transport of biomass burning emissions. The case studies demonstrate that polluted mixed-phase clouds have narrower droplet size distributions and contain 1–2 orders of magnitude fewer precipitating ice particles than clean clouds at the same temperature. This suggests an aerosol indirect effect leading to greater cloud lifetime, greater cloud emissivity, and reduced precipitation. This result is opposite to the glaciation indirect effect, whereby polluted clouds are expected to precipitate more readily due to an increase in the concentration of particles acting as ice nuclei

Source contributions to Northern Hemisphere CO and black carbon during spring and summer 2008 from POLARCAT and START08/preHIPPO observations and MOZART-4

International audienceAnthropogenic pollution and wildfires are main producers of carbon monoxide (CO) and black carbon (BC) in the Northern Hemisphere. High concentrations of these compounds are transported into the Arctic troposphere, influencing the ecosystem in high northern latitudes and the global climate. The global chemical transport model MOZART-4 is used to quantify the seasonal evolution of the contribution of CO and BC from different source regions in spring and summer 2008 by tagging their emissions. Aircraft observations from the POLARCAT experiments, in particular NASA ARCTAS, NOAA ARCPAC, POLARCAT-France, DLR GRACE and YAK-AEROSIB, as well as the NSF START08/preHIPPO experiments during Spring-Summer 2008 are combined to quantify the representation of simulated tracer characteristics in anthropogenic and fire plumes. In general, the model reproduces CO and BC well. Based on aircraft measurements and FLEXPART back-trajectories, the altitude contribution of emissions coming from different source regions is well captured in the model. Uncertainties of the MOZART-4 model are identified by comparing the data with model results on the flight tracks and using MOPITT satellite observations. Anthropogenic emissions are underestimated by about 10% in high northern latitudes in spring, and shortcomings exist in simulating fire plumes. The remote impact of East-Siberian fire emissions is underestimated for spring, whereas the impact of Southeast Asian fire emissions to mid-latitude CO values is overestimated by the model. In summer, mid-latitude CO values agree well between model and observations, whereas summer high latitude East-Siberian fire emissions in the model are overestimated by 20% in comparison to observations in the region. On the other hand, CO concentrations are underestimated by about 30% over Alaska and Canada at altitudes above 4 km. BC values are overestimated by the model at altitudes above 4 km in summer. Based on MOZART-4, with tagged CO and BC tracers, anthropogenic emissions of Asia, Europe and the US have the largest contribution to the CO and BC in mid- and high latitudes in spring and summer. Southeast Asian, Chinese and Indian fires have a large impact on CO pollution in spring in low latitudes with a maximum between 20° and 30°, whereas Siberian fires contribute largely to the pollution in high latitudes, up to 10% in spring and up to 30% in summer. The largest contributions to BC values in high latitudes are from anthropogenic emissions (about 70%). CO and BC have larger mass loadings in April than in July, as a result of photochemistry and dynamics

Characteristics, sources, and transport of aerosols measured in spring 2008 during the aerosol, radiation, and cloud processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) Project

We present an overview of the background, scientific goals, and execution of the Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) project of April 2008. We then summarize airborne measurements, made in the troposphere of the Alaskan Arctic, of aerosol particle size distributions, composition, and optical properties and discuss the sources and transport of the aerosols. The aerosol data were grouped into four categories based on gas-phase composition. First, the background troposphere contained a relatively diffuse, sulfate-rich aerosol extending from the top of the sea-ice inversion layer to 7.4 km altitude. Second, a region of depleted (relative to the background) aerosol was present within the surface inversion layer over sea-ice. Third, layers of dense, organic-rich smoke from open biomass fires in southern Russia and southeastern Siberia were frequently encountered at all altitudes from the top of the inversion layer to 7.1 km. Finally, some aerosol layers were dominated by components originating from fossil fuel combustion. <br></br> Of these four categories measured during ARCPAC, the diffuse background aerosol was most similar to the average springtime aerosol properties observed at a long-term monitoring site at Barrow, Alaska. The biomass burning (BB) and fossil fuel layers were present above the sea-ice inversion layer and did not reach the sea-ice surface during the course of the ARCPAC measurements. The BB aerosol layers were highly scattering and were moderately hygroscopic. On average, the layers produced a noontime net heating of ~0.1 K day<sup>−1</sup> between 3 and 7 km and a slight cooling at the surface. The ratios of particle mass to carbon monoxide (CO) in the BB plumes, which had been transported over distances >5000 km, were comparable to the high end of literature values derived from previous measurements in wildfire smoke. These ratios suggest minimal precipitation scavenging and removal of the BB particles between the time they were emitted and the time they were observed in dense layers above the sea-ice inversion layer

When does NICE recommend the use of health technologies within a programme of evidence development?

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: There is growing interest internationally in linking reimbursement decisions with recommendations for further research. In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) can issue guidance to approve the routine use of a health intervention, reject routine use or recommend use within a research programme. These latter recommendations have restricted use to ‘only in research’ (OIR) or have recommended further research alongside routine use (‘approval with research’ or AWR). However, it is not currently clear when such recommendations are likely to be made. Objectives: This study aims to identify NICE technology appraisals where OIR or AWR recommendations were made and to examine the key considerations that led to those decisions. Methods: Draft and final guidance including OIR/AWR recommendations were identified. The documents were reviewed to establish the characteristics of the technology appraisal, the cost effectiveness of the technologies, the key considerations that led to the recommendations and the types of research required. Results: In total, 29 final and 31 draft guidance documents included OIR/AWR recommendations up to January 2010. Overall, 86 % of final guidance included OIR recommendations. Of these, the majority were for technologies considered to be cost ineffective (83 %) and the majority of final guidance (66 %) specified the need for further evidence on relative effectiveness. The use of OIR/AWR recommendations is decreasing over time and they have rarely been used in appraisals conducted through the single technology appraisal process. Conclusion: NICE has used its ability to recommend technologies within research programmes, although predominantly within the multiple technology appraisal process. OIR recommendations have been most frequently issued for technologies considered cost ineffective and the most frequently cited consideration is uncertainty related to relative effectiveness. Key considerations cited for most AWR recommendations and some OIR recommendations included a need for further evidence on long-term outcomes and adverse effects of treatment.Medical Research Counci

Influenza A Viruses from Wild Birds in Guatemala Belong to the North American Lineage

The role wild bird species play in the transmission and ecology of avian influenza virus (AIV) is well established; however, there are significant gaps in our understanding of the worldwide distribution of these viruses, specifically about the prevalence and/or significance of AIV in Central and South America. As part of an assessment of the ecology of AIV in Guatemala, we conducted active surveillance in wild birds on the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Cloacal and tracheal swab samples taken from resident and migratory wild birds were collected from February 2007 to January 2010.1913 samples were collected and virus was detected by real time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR) in 28 swab samples from ducks (Anas discors). Virus isolation was attempted for these positive samples, and 15 isolates were obtained from the migratory duck species Blue-winged teal. The subtypes identified included H7N9, H11N2, H3N8, H5N3, H8N4, and H5N4. Phylogenetic analysis of the viral sequences revealed that AIV isolates are highly similar to viruses from the North American lineage suggesting that bird migration dictates the ecology of these viruses in the Guatemalan bird population

"Psychic Degenerate": Why G. Was Interned

Abstract This chapter explains how homosexuality was pathologised: to do this, it traces the origins of the "effeminate male" stereotype, explaining how the socio-cultural concept of degeneration was extended to include "sexual inversion". Through the doctors' words, G.'s biography starts to take shape and it becomes clear how it matched the "degenerate" and "effeminate pederast" stereotypical description