A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU

Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €.Risk assessment, pine wood nematode, economic analysis, EU, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

أثر التغيرات الاقتصادية والسياسية المعاصرة على الأداء الاقتصادي لمحصول الأرز المصري

This study aims to analyze the economics of the Egyptian rice enterprise performance in terms of the evolution of both the production and foreign trade, prices, costs and profitability together with throwing highlights on the environmental risks of burning rice straw and recycled alternatives as an approach to increase the value added of the main crop. The study relied on published and unpublished secondary data and review of literature. The study estimated the time trend models for the most important variables that determine the volume of rice production and estimated the annual rates of variation of these variables and indicators which, due to political and economic changes during the study period (1999 - 2015), were behind the fluctuations in production. The magnitude of such fluctuation was estimated as the instability factor. The main results showed continuous fluctuations in cultivated rice which resulted in instability during the study period (1999 - 2015), where the coefficient of instability within the concerned period was about 81% and 88% for rice acreage and yield per faddan. This was probably due to the intervention of the state in determining cultivated area of rice. These fluctuations demonstrated a lack of significant statistical time trend of rice area and its productivity, which in turn reflected on the volume of produce. The fluctuations in local rice production, acreage and insignificant yield growth associated with fluctuations in annual rice exports. Fluctuations in exports were increased because of the unstable changes in export policies aimed prevention of exports for availability and accessibility of rice in the domestic market to saturate the local demand. Such policies implied in several years to import a quite considered quantities of rice. The study, also, showed that the resultant of fluctuations in the acreage and changes in production development policies such as introducing the high yield new varieties and mechanical harvest using the combine caused apparent deficiency in production of rice straw. The study also showed that with the launch of market mechanisms, remove subsidies for agricultural production supplies, devaluation of the Egyptian pound against the dollar, the increase in the costs of producing one ton of rice was a result of the increase in prices of chemical fertilizers, human labor, agricultural mechanization systems and rent value per faddan. However, such increase in costs per ton associated with a relatively higher farm gate price per ton of rice leading to increase in the profit per ton. The average producer profit per ton as a percent of the farm gate price was estimated as 43%. The study indicated that recycling of the abundant rice straw and other byproducts into several specified alternatives would raise the value added of this crop and then raise the economic feasibility of resources devoted for rice enterprise, despite its relatively high requirements of the limited water resources available, compared to the competitive crop which is maize

Electrocardiographic intervals associated with incident atrial fibrillation: Dissecting the QT interval

Background Prolongation of the QT interval has been associated with an increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF), but the responsible mechanism remains unknown. Objectives The aims of this study were to subdivide the QT interval into its components and identify the resultant electrocardiographic interval(s) responsible for the association with AF. Methods Predefined QT-interval components were assessed for association with incident AF in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study using Cox proportional hazards models. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated per 1-SD increase in each component. Among QT-interval components exhibiting significant associations, additional analyses evaluating long extremes, defined as greater than the 95th percentile, were performed. Results Of the 14,625 individuals, 1505 (10.3%) were diagnosed with incident AF during a mean follow-up period of 17.6 years. After multivariable adjustment, QT-interval components involved in repolarization, but not depolarization, exhibited significant associations with incident AF, including a longer ST segment (HR 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–1.41; P <.001) and a prolonged T-wave onset to T-wave peak (T-onset to T-peak) (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.07–1.20; P <.001). Marked prolongation of the ST segment (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.04–1.64; P =.022) and T-onset to T-peak (HR 1.36; 95% CI 1.09–1.69; P =.006) was also associated with an increased risk of incident AF. Conclusion The association between a prolonged QT interval and incident AF is primarily explained by components involved in ventricular repolarization: prolongation of the ST segment and T-onset to T-peak. These observations suggest that prolongation of phases 2 and 3 of the cardiac action potential drives the association between the QT interval and AF risk

Framework for modelling economic impacts of invasive species, applied to pine wood nematode in Europe

Background Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. Methodology/Principal Findings Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008–2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014–2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300–800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. Conclusions/Significance Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusion

Dendrimers as anti-inflammatory agents

Dendrimers constitute an intriguing class of macromolecules which find applications in a variety of areas including biology. These hyperbranched macromolecules with tailored backbone and surface groups have been extensively investigated as nanocarriers for gene and drug delivery, by molecular encapsulation or covalent conjugation. Dendrimers have provided an excellent platform to develop multivalent and multifunctional nanoconjugates incorporating a variety of functional groups including drugs which are known to be anti-inflammatory agents. Recently, dendrimers have been shown to possess anti-inflammatory properties themselves. This unexpected and intriguing discovery has provided an additional impetus in designing novel active pharmaceutical agents. In this review, we highlight some of the recent developments in the field of dendrimers as nanoscale anti-inflammatory agents

Pharmacogenomics study of thiazide diuretics and QT interval in multi-ethnic populations: The cohorts for heart and aging research in genomic epidemiology

Thiazide diuretics, commonly used antihypertensives, may cause QT interval (QT) prolongation, a risk factor for highly fatal and difficult to predict ventricular arrhythmias. We examined whether common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) modified the association between thiazide use and QT or its component parts (QRS interval, JT interval) by performing ancestry-specific, trans-ethnic and cross-phenotype genome-wide analyses of European (66%), African American (15%) and Hispanic (19%) populations (N=78 199), leveraging longitudinal data, incorporating corrected standard errors to account for underestimation of interaction estimate variances and evaluating evidence for pathway enrichment. Although no loci achieved genome-wide significance (P&lt;5 × 10 -8 m), we found suggestive evidence (P&lt;5 × 10 -6 ) for SNPs modifying the thiazide-QT association at 22 loci, including ion transport loci (for example, NELL1, KCNQ3). The biologic plausibility of our suggestive results and simulations demonstrating modest power to detect interaction effects at genome-wide significant levels indicate that larger studies and innovative statistical methods are warranted in future efforts evaluating thiazide-SNP interactions

Data management related to the application of two crop-water-environment- models in Argentina and Egypt

In Ragab, R.; El-Quosy, D. E. D.; van den Broek, B.; Pereira, L. S. (Eds.), Crop-water-environment models: Selected papers to the workshop organized by the ICID Working Group on "Sustainable Crops and Water Use" at the occasion of the 16th Congress of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage at Cairo, Egypt. Cairo, Egypt: ICID. Egypt National Committe

A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU

Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €

Detecting patients with PMI post-CABG based on cardiac troponin-T profiles: A latent class mixed modeling approach

Background Diagnosis of perioperative myocardial infarction (PMI) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is fraught with complexity since it is primarily based on a single cut-off value for cardiac troponin (cTn) that is exceeded in over 90% of CABG patients, including non-PMI patients. In this study we applied an unsupervised statistical modeling approach to uncover clinically relevant cTn release profiles post-CABG, including PMI, and used this to improve diagnostic accuracy of PMI. Methods In 624 patients that underwent CABG, cTnT concentration was serially measured up to 24 h post aortic cross clamping. 2857 cTnT measurements were available to fit latent class linear mixed models (LCMMs). Results Four classes were found, described by: normal, high, low and rising cTnT release profiles. With the clinical diagnosis of PMI as golden standard, the rising profile had a diagnostic accuracy of 97%, compared to 83% for an optimally chosen cut-off and 21% for the guideline recommended cut-off value. Conclusion Clinically relevant subgroups, including patients with PMI, can be uncovered using serially measured cTnT and a LCMM. The LCMM showed superior diagnostic accuracy of PMI. A rising cTnT profile is potentially a better criterion than a single cut-off value in diagnosing PMI post-CABG