A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Mechanics and dynamics of X-chromosome pairing at X inactivation

At the onset of X-chromosome inactivation, the vital process whereby female mammalian cells equalize X products with respect to males, the X chromosomes are colocalized along their Xic (X-inactivation center) regions. The mechanism inducing recognition and pairing of the X’s remains, though, elusive. Starting from recent discoveries on the molecular factors and on the DNA sequences (the so-called "pairing sites") involved, we dissect the mechanical basis of Xic colocalization by using a statistical physics model. We show that soluble DNA-specific binding molecules, such as those experimentally identified, can be indeed sufficient to induce the spontaneous colocalization of the homologous chromosomes but only when their concentration, or chemical affinity, rises above a threshold value as a consequence of a thermodynamic phase transition. We derive the likelihood of pairing and its probability distribution. Chromosome dynamics has two stages: an initial independent Brownian diffusion followed, after a characteristic time scale, by recognition and pairing. Finally, we investigate the effects of DNA deletion/insertions in the region of pairing sites and compare model predictions to available experimental data

The modern pollen-vegetation relationship of a tropical forest-savannah mosaic landscape, Ghana, West Africa

Transitions between forest and savannah vegetation types in fossil pollen records are often poorly understood due to over-production by taxa such as Poaceae and a lack of modern pollen-vegetation studies. Here, modern pollen assemblages from within a forest-savannah transition in West Africa are presented and compared, their characteristic taxa discussed, and implications for the fossil record considered. Fifteen artificial pollen traps were deployed for 1 year, to collect pollen rain from three vegetation plots within the forest-savannah transition in Ghana. High percentages of Poaceae and Melastomataceae/Combretaceae were recorded in all three plots. Erythrophleum suaveolens characterised the forest plot, Manilkara obovata the transition plot and Terminalia the savannah plot. The results indicate that Poaceae pollen influx rates provide the best representation of the forest-savannah gradient, and that a Poaceae abundance of >40% should be considered as indicative of savannah-type vegetation in the fossil record

Effectiveness of student response systems in terms of learning environment, attitudes and achievement

In order to investigate the effectiveness of using Student Response Systems (SRS) among grade 7 and 8 science students in New York, the How Do You Feel About This Class? (HDYFATC) questionnaire was administered to 1097 students (532 students did use SRS and 565 students who did not use SRS). Data analyses attested to the sound factorial validity and internal consistency reliability of the HDYFATC, as well as its ability to differentiate between the perceptions of students in different classrooms. Very large differences between users and non-users of SRS, ranging from 1.17 to 2.45 standard deviations for various learning environment scales, attitudes and achievement, supported the efficacy of using SRS

Measurable residual disease analysis in paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia patients with ABL-class fusions

Background: ABL-class fusions including NUP214-ABL1 and EBF1-PDGFRB occur in high risk acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) with gene expression patterns similar to BCR-ABL-positive ALL. Our aim was to evaluate new DNA-based measurable residual disease (MRD) tests detecting these fusions and IKZF1-deletions in comparison with conventional immunoglobulin/T-cell receptor (Ig/TCR) markers. Methods: Precise genomic breakpoints were defined from targeted or whole genome next generation sequencing for ABL-fusions and BCR-ABL1. Quantitative PCR assays were designed and used to re-measure MRD in remission bone marrow samples previously tested using Ig/TCR markers. All MRD testing complied with EuroMRD guidelines. Results: ABL-class patients had 46% 5year event-free survival and 79% 5year overall survival. All had sensitive fusion tests giving high concordance between Ig/TCR and ABL-class fusion results (21 patients, n = 257 samples, r2 = 0.9786, P < 0.0001) and Ig/TCR and IKZF1-deletion results (9 patients, n = 143 samples, r2 = 0.9661, P < 0.0001). In contrast, in BCR-ABL1 patients, Ig/TCR and BCR-ABL1 tests were discordant in 32% (40 patients, n = 346 samples, r2 = 0.4703, P < 0.0001) and IKZF1-deletion results were closer to Ig/TCR (25 patients, n = 176, r2 = 0.8631, P < 0.0001). Conclusions: MRD monitoring based on patient-specific assays detecting gene fusions or recurrent assays for IKZF1-deletions is feasible and provides good alternatives to Ig/TCR tests to monitor MRD in ABL-class ALL

Robotic milking technologies and renegotiating situated ethical relationships on UK dairy farms

Robotic or automatic milking systems (AMS) are novel technologies that take over the labor of dairy farming and reduce the need for human-animal interactions. Because robotic milking involves the replacement of 'conventional' twice-a-day milking managed by people with a system that supposedly allows cows the freedom to be milked automatically whenever they choose, some claim robotic milking has health and welfare benefits for cows, increases productivity, and has lifestyle advantages for dairy farmers. This paper examines how established ethical relations on dairy farms are unsettled by the intervention of a radically different technology such as AMS. The renegotiation of ethical relationships is thus an important dimension of how the actors involved are re-assembled around a new technology. The paper draws on in-depth research on UK dairy farms comparing those using conventional milking technologies with those using AMS. We explore the situated ethical relations that are negotiated in practice, focusing on the contingent and complex nature of human-animal-technology interactions. We show that ethical relations are situated and emergent, and that as the identities, roles, and subjectivities of humans and animals are unsettled through the intervention of a new technology, the ethical relations also shift. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

A cross-national mixed-method study of reality pedagogy

This mixed-methods cross-national study investigated the effectiveness of reality pedagogy (an approach in which teachers become part of students’ activities, practices and rituals) in terms of changes in student perceptions of their learning environment and attitudes towards science. A questionnaire was administered to 142 students in grades 8–10 in the Bronx, New York City and Dresden, Germany. The questionnaire combines learning environment scales from the Constructivist Learning Environment Survey and the What Is Happening In this Class? Questionnaire with attitude scales from the Test of Science-Related Attitudes. Student interviews were used to support questionnaire findings. Quantitative data analyses revealed that reality pedagogy had a greater impact on students in the Bronx than in Dresden, with qualitative data clarifying differences in how reality pedagogy was enacted in each geographic area. Overall, our findings add to the body of evidence concerning the effectiveness of reality pedagogy as an approach to teaching and learning science across a variety of contexts. © 2016 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrech

Modeling HIV-1 Drug Resistance as Episodic Directional Selection

The evolution of substitutions conferring drug resistance to HIV-1 is both episodic, occurring when patients are on antiretroviral therapy, and strongly directional, with site-specific resistant residues increasing in frequency over time. While methods exist to detect episodic diversifying selection and continuous directional selection, no evolutionary model combining these two properties has been proposed. We present two models of episodic directional selection (MEDS and EDEPS) which allow the a priori specification of lineages expected to have undergone directional selection. The models infer the sites and target residues that were likely subject to directional selection, using either codon or protein sequences. Compared to its null model of episodic diversifying selection, MEDS provides a superior fit to most sites known to be involved in drug resistance, and neither one test for episodic diversifying selection nor another for constant directional selection are able to detect as many true positives as MEDS and EDEPS while maintaining acceptable levels of false positives. This suggests that episodic directional selection is a better description of the process driving the evolution of drug resistance

Recombination rate and selection strength in HIV intra-patient evolution

The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the parameters governing genetic diversification and the strength of selection need to be known. While mutation rates can be measured in single replication cycles, the relevant effective recombination rate depends on the probability of coinfection of a cell with more than one virus and can only be inferred from population data. However, most population genetic estimators for recombination rates assume absence of selection and are hence of limited applicability to HIV, since positive and purifying selection are important in HIV evolution. Here, we estimate the rate of recombination and the distribution of selection coefficients from time-resolved sequence data tracking the evolution of HIV within single patients. By examining temporal changes in the genetic composition of the population, we estimate the effective recombination to be r=1.4e-5 recombinations per site and generation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that selection coefficients of at least 15% of the observed non-synonymous polymorphisms exceed 0.8% per generation. These results provide a basis for a more detailed understanding of the evolution of HIV. A particularly interesting case is evolution in response to drug treatment, where recombination can facilitate the rapid acquisition of multiple resistance mutations. With the methods developed here, more precise and more detailed studies will be possible, as soon as data with higher time resolution and greater sample sizes is available.Comment: to appear in PLoS Computational Biolog

Factors associated with persistently high muscular power from childhood to adulthood

Purpose: Child and adult muscular power have been shown to associate with contemporary cardiometabolic health. Muscular power typically persists (tracks) between childhood and adulthood. Few studies span childhood to adulthood, so we aimed to identify modifiable and environmental factors associated with the persistence or change in muscular power across the life course.Methods: Prospective study examining 1938 participants who had their muscular power (standing long jump distance) measured in 1985 as children 7-15 yr old and again 20 yr later in adulthood (26-36 yr old). A selection of objectively measured anthropometric characteristics (adiposity and fat-free mass), cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), self-reported physical activity, dietary (quality and fruit, vegetable, and protein intake), and sociodemographic data were available at both time points. Muscular power was separated into thirds, and participants were reported as having persistently low, decreasing, persistently moderate, increasing, or persistently high muscular power.Results: Higher adiposity, lower physical activity, diet quality and socioeconomic status (SES) across the life course, and lower adult CRF were associated with persistently low muscular power. Lower adult protein intake and an increase in adiposity over time were associated with decreasing muscular power. An increase in fat-free mass was associated with a reduced probability of decreasing or persistently high muscular power and an increased probability of increasing muscular power. Higher adult fruit intake was associated with increasing muscular power. Lower adiposity across the life course, higher adult CRF and SES, and higher child protein intake were associated with persistently high muscular power.Conclusion: Healthy weight, good CRF, greater protein intake, and high SES are important correlates of high muscular power maintained from childhood to adulthood