Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes

Comet-FISH for the evaluation of plant DNA damage after mutagenic treatments

The aim of this study was to perform a comparative investigation of the actions of three mutagens that are widely used in plant mutagenesis using the comet-FISH technique. The comet-FISH technique was used for the analysis of DNA damage and the kinetics of repair within specific DNA sequences. FISH with rDNA and telomeric/centromeric DNA probes was applied to comets that were obtained from an alkaline/neutral comet assay. Migration within specific DNA sequences was analysed after treatment with two chemical mutagens-maleic hydrazide (MH) and N-nitroso-N-methylurea (MNU), and γ-rays. Barley was used as a model plant in this study. The possible utility of specific DNA sequences in a comparative assessment of the distribution of DNA damage within a plant genome was evaluated. This study proved that the comet-FISH technique is suitable for a detailed quantification of DNA damage and repair within specific DNA sequences in plant mutagenesis. The analysis of FISH signals demonstrated that the involvement of specific DNA sequences in DNA damage was different and was dependent on the mutagen used. We showed that 5S rDNA and telomeric DNA sequences are more sensitive to mutagenic treatment, which was expressed by a stronger fragmentation and migration in comparison to the other probes used in the study. We found that 5S rDNA and telomeric DNA probes are more suitable for testing the genotoxicity of environmental factors. A comparison of the involvement of specific chromosome domains in direct DNA breakage/repair and in chromosome aberration formation after mutagen treatment indicates the compatibility of the results

Exotic fish in exotic plantations: a multi-scale approach to understand amphibian occurrence in the mediterranean region

Globally, amphibian populations are threatened by a diverse range of factors including habitat destruction and alteration. Forestry practices have been linked with low diversity and abundance of amphibians. The effect of exotic Eucalyptus spp. plantations on amphibian communities has been studied in a number of biodiversity hotspots, but little is known of its impact in the Mediterranean region. Here, we identify the environmental factors influencing the presence of six species of amphibians (the Caudata Pleurodeles waltl, Salamandra salamandra, Lissotriton boscai, Triturus marmoratus and the anurans Pelobates cultripes and Hyla arborea/meridionalis) occupying 88 ponds. The study was conducted in a Mediterranean landscape dominated by eucalypt plantations alternated with traditional use (agricultural, montados and native forest) at three different scales: local (pond), intermediate (400 metres radius buffer) and broad (1000 metres radius buffer). Using the Akaike Information Criterion for small samples (AICc), we selected the top-ranked models for estimating the probability of occurrence of each species at each spatial scale separately and across all three spatial scales, using a combination of covariates from the different magnitudes. Models with a combination of covariates at the different spatial scales had a stronger support than those at individual scales. The presence of predatory fish in a pond had a strong effect on Caudata presence. Permanent ponds were selected by Hyla arborea/meridionalis over temporary ponds. Species occurrence was not increased by a higher density of streams, but the density of ponds impacted negatively on Lissotriton boscai. The proximity of ponds occupied by their conspecifics had a positive effect on the occurrence of Lissotriton boscai and Pleurodeles waltl. Eucalypt plantations had a negative effect on the occurrence of the newt Lissotriton boscai and anurans Hyla arborea/meridionalis, but had a positive effect on the presence of Salamandra salamandra, while no effect on any of the other species was detected. In conclusion, eucalypts had limited effects on the amphibian community at the intermediate and broad scales, but predatory fish had a major impact when considering all the scales combined. The over-riding importance of introduced fish as a negative impact suggests that forest managers should prevent new fish introductions and eradicate fish from already-occupied ponds whenever possible

SDSS-IV MaNGA: the different quenching histories of fast and slow rotators

Do the theorised different formation mechanisms of fast and slow rotators produce an observable difference in their star formation histories? To study this we identify quenching slow rotators in the MaNGA sample by selecting those which lie below the star forming sequence and identify a sample of quenching fast rotators which were matched in stellar mass. This results in a total sample of 194 kinematically classified galaxies, which is agnostic to visual morphology. We use u-r and NUV-u colours from SDSS and GALEX and an existing inference package, STARPY, to conduct a first look at the onset time and exponentially declining rate of quenching of these galaxies. An Anderson-Darling test on the distribution of the inferred quenching rates across the two kinematic populations reveals they are statistically distinguishable ($3.2\sigma$). We find that fast rotators quench at a much wider range of rates than slow rotators, consistent with a wide variety of physical processes such as secular evolution, minor mergers, gas accretion and environmentally driven mechanisms. Quenching is more likely to occur at rapid rates ($\tau \lesssim 1~\rm{Gyr}$) for slow rotators, in agreement with theories suggesting slow rotators are formed in dynamically fast processes, such as major mergers. Interestingly, we also find that a subset of the fast rotators quench at these same rapid rates as the bulk of the slow rotator sample. We therefore discuss how the total gas mass of a merger, rather than the merger mass ratio, may decide a galaxy's ultimate kinematic fate