Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Pain assessment for people with dementia: a systematic review of systematic reviews of pain assessment tools.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence of under-detection and poor management of pain in patients with dementia, in both long-term and acute care. Accurate assessment of pain in people with dementia is challenging and pain assessment tools have received considerable attention over the years, with an increasing number of tools made available. Systematic reviews on the evidence of their validity and utility mostly compare different sets of tools. This review of systematic reviews analyses and summarises evidence concerning the psychometric properties and clinical utility of pain assessment tools in adults with dementia or cognitive impairment. METHODS: We searched for systematic reviews of pain assessment tools providing evidence of reliability, validity and clinical utility. Two reviewers independently assessed each review and extracted data from them, with a third reviewer mediating when consensus was not reached. Analysis of the data was carried out collaboratively. The reviews were synthesised using a narrative synthesis approach. RESULTS: We retrieved 441 potentially eligible reviews, 23 met the criteria for inclusion and 8 provided data for extraction. Each review evaluated between 8 and 13 tools, in aggregate providing evidence on a total of 28 tools. The quality of the reviews varied and the reporting often lacked sufficient methodological detail for quality assessment. The 28 tools appear to have been studied in a variety of settings and with varied types of patients. The reviews identified several methodological limitations across the original studies. The lack of a 'gold standard' significantly hinders the evaluation of tools' validity. Most importantly, the samples were small providing limited evidence for use of any of the tools across settings or populations. CONCLUSIONS: There are a considerable number of pain assessment tools available for use with the elderly cognitive impaired population. However there is limited evidence about their reliability, validity and clinical utility. On the basis of this review no one tool can be recommended given the existing evidence

Low Mate Encounter Rate Increases Male Risk Taking in a Sexually Cannibalistic Praying Mantis

Male praying mantises are forced into the ultimate trade-off of mating versus complete loss of future reproduction if they fall prey to a female. The balance of this trade-off will depend both on (1) the level of predatory risk imposed by females and (2) the frequency of mating opportunities for males. We report the results of a set of experiments that examine the effects of these two variables on male risk-taking behavior and the frequency of sexual cannibalism in the praying mantis Tenodera sinensis. We experimentally altered the rate at which males encountered females and measured male approach and courtship behavior under conditions of high and low risk of being attacked by females. We show that male risk taking depends on prior access to females. Males with restricted access to females showed greater risk-taking behavior. When males were given daily female encounters, they responded to greater female-imposed risk by slowing their rate of approach and remained a greater distance from a potential mate. In contrast, males without recent access to mates were greater risk-takers; they approached females more rapidly and to closer proximity, regardless of risk. In a second experiment, we altered male encounter rate with females and measured rates of sexual cannibalism when paired with hungry or well-fed females. Greater risk-taking behavior by males with low mate encounter rates resulted in high rates of sexual cannibalism when these males were paired with hungry females

The dynamics and neural correlates of audio-visual integration capacity as determined by temporal unpredictability, proactive interference, and SOA

Over 5 experiments, we challenge the idea that the capacity of audio-visual integration need be fixed at 1 item. We observe that the conditions under which audio-visual integration is most likely to exceed 1 occur when stimulus change operates at a slow rather than fast rate of presentation and when the task is of intermediate difficulty such as when low levels of proactive interference (3 rather than 8 interfering visual presentations) are combined with the temporal unpredictability of the critical frame (Experiment 2), or, high levels of proactive interference are combined with the temporal predictability of the critical frame (Experiment 4). Neural data suggest that capacity might also be determined by the quality of perceptual information entering working memory. Experiment 5 supported the proposition that audio-visual integration was at play during the previous experiments. The data are consistent with the dynamic nature usually associated with cross-modal binding, and while audio-visual integration capacity likely cannot exceed uni-modal capacity estimates, performance may be better than being able to associate only one visual stimulus with one auditory stimulus

Adherence to Antiretroviral Treatment and Correlation with Risk of Hospitalization among Commercially Insured HIV Patients in the United States

Purpose: A lower daily pill burden may improve adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and clinical outcomes in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This study assessed differences in adherence using the number of pills taken per day, and evaluated how adherence correlated with hospitalization. Methodology: Commercially insured patients in the LifeLink database with an HIV diagnosis (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification code 042.xx) between 6/1/2006 and 12/31/2008 and receipt of a complete ART regimen were selected for inclusion. Patients were grouped according to their daily pill count and remained on ART for at least 60 days. Outcomes included adherence and rates of hospitalization. Adherence was measured as the proportion of days between the start and end of the regimen in which the patient maintained supply of all initiated ART components. Logistic regressions assessed the relationship between pills per day, adherence, and hospitalization, controlling for demographics, comorbidities, and ART-naïve (vs. experienced) status. Results: 7,073 patients met the study inclusion criteria, and 33.4%, 5.8%, and 60.8 % received an ART regimen comprising one, two, or three or more pills per day, respectively. Regression analysis showed patients receiving a single pill per day were significantly more likely to reach a 95 % adherence threshold versus patients receiving three or more pills per day (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59; P,0.001). Regardless of the number of pills received per day, patients were over 40 % less likely to have

Software comparison for evaluating genomic copy number variation for Affymetrix 6.0 SNP array platform

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Copy number data are routinely being extracted from genome-wide association study chips using a variety of software. We empirically evaluated and compared four freely-available software packages designed for Affymetrix SNP chips to estimate copy number: Affymetrix Power Tools (APT), Aroma.Affymetrix, PennCNV and CRLMM. Our evaluation used 1,418 GENOA samples that were genotyped on the Affymetrix Genome-Wide Human SNP Array 6.0. We compared bias and variance in the locus-level copy number data, the concordance amongst regions of copy number gains/deletions and the false-positive rate amongst deleted segments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>APT had median locus-level copy numbers closest to a value of two, whereas PennCNV and Aroma.Affymetrix had the smallest variability associated with the median copy number. Of those evaluated, only PennCNV provides copy number specific quality-control metrics and identified 136 poor CNV samples. Regions of copy number variation (CNV) were detected using the hidden Markov models provided within PennCNV and CRLMM/VanillaIce. PennCNV detected more CNVs than CRLMM/VanillaIce; the median number of CNVs detected per sample was 39 and 30, respectively. PennCNV detected most of the regions that CRLMM/VanillaIce did as well as additional CNV regions. The median concordance between PennCNV and CRLMM/VanillaIce was 47.9% for duplications and 51.5% for deletions. The estimated false-positive rate associated with deletions was similar for PennCNV and CRLMM/VanillaIce.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>If the objective is to perform statistical tests on the locus-level copy number data, our empirical results suggest that PennCNV or Aroma.Affymetrix is optimal. If the objective is to perform statistical tests on the summarized segmented data then PennCNV would be preferred over CRLMM/VanillaIce. Specifically, PennCNV allows the analyst to estimate locus-level copy number, perform segmentation and evaluate CNV-specific quality-control metrics within a single software package. PennCNV has relatively small bias, small variability and detects more regions while maintaining a similar estimated false-positive rate as CRLMM/VanillaIce. More generally, we advocate that software developers need to provide guidance with respect to evaluating and choosing optimal settings in order to obtain optimal results for an individual dataset. Until such guidance exists, we recommend trying multiple algorithms, evaluating concordance/discordance and subsequently consider the union of regions for downstream association tests.</p

Impact Factor: outdated artefact or stepping-stone to journal certification?

A review of Garfield's journal impact factor and its specific implementation as the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor reveals several weaknesses in this commonly-used indicator of journal standing. Key limitations include the mismatch between citing and cited documents, the deceptive display of three decimals that belies the real precision, and the absence of confidence intervals. These are minor issues that are easily amended and should be corrected, but more substantive improvements are needed. There are indications that the scientific community seeks and needs better certification of journal procedures to improve the quality of published science. Comprehensive certification of editorial and review procedures could help ensure adequate procedures to detect duplicate and fraudulent submissions.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 6 table

Comparative modeling of DNA and RNA polymerases from Moniliophthora perniciosa mitochondrial plasmid

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The filamentous fungus <it>Moniliophthora perniciosa </it>(Stahel) Aime & Phillips-Mora is a hemibiotrophic Basidiomycota that causes witches' broom disease of cocoa (<it>Theobroma cacao </it>L.). This disease has resulted in a severe decrease in Brazilian cocoa production, which changed the position of Brazil in the market from the second largest cocoa exporter to a cocoa importer. Fungal mitochondrial plasmids are usually invertrons encoding DNA and RNA polymerases. Plasmid insertions into host mitochondrial genomes are probably associated with modifications in host generation time, which can be involved in fungal aging. This association suggests activity of polymerases, and these can be used as new targets for drugs against mitochondrial activity of fungi, more specifically against witches' broom disease. Sequencing and modeling: DNA and RNA polymerases of <it>M. perniciosa </it>mitochondrial plasmid were completely sequenced and their models were carried out by Comparative Homology approach. The sequences of DNA and RNA polymerase showed 25% of identity to 1XHX and 1ARO (pdb code) using BLASTp, which were used as templates. The models were constructed using Swiss PDB-Viewer and refined with a set of Molecular Mechanics (MM) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) in water carried out with AMBER 8.0, both working under the ff99 force fields, respectively. Ramachandran plots were generated by Procheck 3.0 and exhibited models with 97% and 98% for DNA and RNA polymerases, respectively. MD simulations in water showed models with thermodynamic stability after 2000 ps and 300 K of simulation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This work contributes to the development of new alternatives for controlling the fungal agent of witches' broom disease.</p

Mortalidade infantil e acesso geográfico ao parto nos municípios brasileiros

OBJETIVO: Analisar o acesso geográfico ao parto hospitalar nos municípios brasileiros. MÉTODOS: Foram analisadas informações de óbitos e nascimentos quanto à sua adequação para o cálculo do coeficiente de mortalidade infantil no período de 2005 a 2007 para os 5.564 municípios brasileiros. O acesso geográfico foi expresso por indicadores de deslocamento, oferta e acesso aos serviços de saúde. A associação entre o acesso geográfico ao parto e o coeficiente de mortalidade infantil em municípios com adequação de suas informações vitais foi avaliada por meio de regressão múltipla. RESULTADOS: Dentre os municípios analisados, 56% apresentaram adequação das informações vitais, correspondendo a 72% da população brasileira. O deslocamento geográfico ao parto mostrou-se inversamente associado ao porte populacional, à renda per capita, e à mortalidade infantil, mesmo controlado por fatores demográficos e socioeconômicos. CONCLUSÕES: Embora tenham sido desenvolvidas estratégias importantes para a melhoria da qualidade do atendimento às gestantes no Brasil, as ações para garantir o acesso igualitário à assistência ao parto ainda são insuficientes. O maior deslocamento intermunicipal para o parto se mostrou como um fator de risco para a mortalidade infantil, aliado à desigualdade de oferta de serviços qualificados e à falta de integração com a atenção básica de saúde

Endotoxin tolerance and cross-tolerance in mast cells involves TLR4, TLR2 and FcεR1 interactions and SOCS expression: perspectives on immunomodulation in infectious and allergic diseases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The study of the endotoxin tolerance phenomenon in light of the recently defined roles of mast cells and toll-like receptors as essential components of the innate immune response and as orchestrators of acquired immunity may reveal potentially useful mechanisms of immunomodulation of infectious and allergic inflammatory responses, such as sepsis or asthma. Here we evaluated the phenomenon of direct tolerance of endotoxins, as well as the induction of cross-tolerance and synergism by stimulation with toll-like receptor-2 (TLR2) and FcεR1 agonists, in murine mast cells prestimulated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Additionally, we evaluated some stimulatory and inhibitory signaling molecules potentially involved in these phenomena.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>MC/9 cells and primary bone marrow-derived mast cells obtained from C57BL/6 and TLR4^-/-knock-out mice were sensitized to DNP-HSA (antigen) by incubation with DNP-IgE and were prestimulated with LPS for 18 hr prior to stimulation. Cultures were stimulated with LPS or Pam3Cys-Ser-(Lys)4 3HCl (P3C), a TLR2 agonist, individually or in combination with antigen. The production of IL-6 and TNFα, the phosphorylation of NFκB and p38 MAPK, and the expression of TLR4 and SOCS-1 and -3 were analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that production of TNFα and IL-6 in murine mast cells that have been pretreated with LPS and challenged with TLR4 (LPS) or -2 (P3C) agonists was reduced, phenomena described as endotoxin tolerance (LPS) and cross-tolerance (P3C), respectively. The expression of TLR4 was not affected by LPS pretreatment. Our results show that the FcεR1 agonist DNP-HSA (antigen) interacts synergistically with LPS or P3C to markedly enhance production of cytokines (TNFα and IL-6). This synergistic effect with LPS and P3C was also attenuated by LPS pretreatment and was mediated by TLR4. These results may be attributed to the reduction in phosphorylation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK), p38, and the transcription factor NFκB, as well as to an increase in the expression of the suppressors of cytokine signaling (SOCS)-1 and -3 proteins in LPS-pretreated mast cells.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These findings can be explored with respect to the modulation of inflammatory responses associated with infectious and allergic processes in future studies.</p