Dealing with uncertainty: turbulent parameterizations and grid-spacing effects in numerical modelling of deep moist convective processes

Abstract. Computer power has grown to the point that very-fine-mesh mesoscale modelling is now possible. Going down through scales is clumsily supposed to reduce uncertainty and to improve the predictive ability of the models. This work provides a contribution to understand how the uncertainty in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) of severe weather events is affected by increasing the model grid resolution and by choosing a parameterization which is able to represent turbulent processes at such finer scales. A deep moist convective scenario, a supercell, in a simplified atmospheric setting is studied by mean of high resolution numerical simulations with COSMO-Model. Different turbulent closures are used and their impacts on the space-time properties of convective fields are discussed. The convective-resolving solutions adopting Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulent closure converge with respect to the overall flow field structure when grid spacing is properly reduced. By comparing the rainfall fields produced by the model on larger scales with those at the convergence scales it's possible to size up the uncertainty introduced by the modelling itself on the predicted ground effects in such simplified scenario

Assessing uncertainty in radar measurements on simplified meteorological scenarios

A three-dimensional radar simulator model (RSM) developed by Haase (1998) is coupled with the nonhydrostatic mesoscale weather forecast model Lokal-Modell (LM). The radar simulator is able to model reflectivity measurements by using the following meteorological fields, generated by Lokal Modell, as inputs: temperature, pressure, water vapour content, cloud water content, cloud ice content, rain sedimentation flux and snow sedimentation flux. This work focuses on the assessment of some uncertainty sources associated with radar measurements: </p><ol> <li>absorption by the atmospheric gases, e.g., molecular oxygen, water vapour, and nitrogen; </li> <li>attenuation due to the presence of a highly reflecting structure between the radar and a &quot;target structure&quot;. </li> </ol> RSM results for a simplified meteorological scenario, consisting of a humid updraft on a flat surface and four cells placed around it, are presented

NMR interaction studies of Neu5Ac-&#945;-(2,6)-Gal-&#946;-(1-4)-GlcNAc with influenza-virus hemagglutinin expressed in transfected human cells

The emergence of escape-mutants of influenza hemagglutinin (HA) following vaccination compels the yearly re-formulation of flu vaccines. Since binding the sialic acid receptor remains in all cases essential for infection, small-molecule inhibitors of HA binding to sialic acid could be interesting therapeutic complements or alternatives to immuno-prophylaxis in the control of flu epidemics. In this work, we made use of NMR spectroscopy to study the interaction between a derivative of sialic acid (the Neu5Ac-\u3b1-(2,6)-Gal-\u3b2-(1-4)-GlcNAc trisaccharide) and HAs (H1 and H5) from human and avian strains of influenza virus, directly expressed on the surface of stable transfected 293 T human cells. The HAs were shown to retain their native trimeric conformation and binding properties. Exploiting the magnetization transfer between the proteins and the ligand, we obtained evidence of the binding event and mapped the (non-identical) sugar epitopes recognized by the two HA species. The rapid and reliable method for screening sialic acid-related HA ligands we have developed could yield useful information for an efficient drug design

A hydrological analysis of the 4 November 2011 event in Genoa

On the 4 November 2011 a flash flood event hit the area of Genoa with dramatic consequences. Such an event represents, from the meteorological and hydrological perspective, a paradigm of flash floods in the Mediterranean environment. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; The hydro-meteorological probabilistic forecasting system for small and medium size catchments in use at the Civil Protection Centre of Liguria region exhibited excellent performances for the event, by predicting, 24–48 h in advance, the potential level of risk associated with the forecast. It greatly helped the decision makers in issuing a timely and correct alert. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; In this work we present the operational outputs of the system provided during the Liguria events and the post event hydrological modelling analysis that has been carried out accounting also for the crowd sourcing information and data. We discuss the benefit of the implemented probabilistic systems for decision-making under uncertainty, highlighting how, in this case, the multi-catchment approach used for predicting floods in small basins has been crucial

Logical gates in actin monomer

© 2017 The Author(s). We evaluate information processing capacity of a single actin molecule by calculating distributions of logical gates implemented by the molecule via propagating patterns of excitation. We represent a filamentous actin molecule as an excitable automaton network (F-actin automaton). where every atom updates its state depending on states of atoms its connected to with chemical bonds (hard neighbours) and atoms being in physical proximity to the atom (soft neighbours). A resting atom excites if a sum of its excited hard neighbours and a weighted sum of its soft neighbours belong to some specified interval. We demonstrate that F-actin automata implement OR, AND, XOR and AND-NOT gates via interacting patterns of excitation. Gate AND is the most common gate and gate XOR is the rarest. Using the architectures of gates discovered we implement one bit half-adder and controlled-not circuits in the F-actin automata. Speed and space values of the F-actin molecular computers are discussed

Design of a Base-Board for arrays of closely-packed Multi-Anode Photo-Multipliers

We describe the design of a Base-Board to house Multi-Anode Photo-Multipliers for use in large-area arrays of light sensors. The goals, the design, the results of tests on the prototypes and future developments are presented.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Nucl. Instrum. and Meth.

N=1* model superpotential revisited (IR behaviour of N=4 limit)

The one-loop contribution to the superpotential, in particular the Veneziano-Yankielowicz potential in N=1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills model is discussed from an elementary field theory method and the matrix model point of view. Both approaches are based on the Renormalization Group variation of the superconformal N=4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills model.Comment: 31 page

Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: The Genoa 2011 case

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