Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution

Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS). D. Romero is a PhD student at the University of Malaga with a grant of the Ministerio de Educacio´n y Ciencia (AP 2007-03633

O perfil da violência contra crianças e adolescentes, segundo registros de Conselhos Tutelares: vítimas, agressores e manifestações de violência The profile of violence against children and adolescents according to Child Protection Council records: victims, aggressors and patterns of violence

OBJETIVO: estimar a prevalência das formas de violência contra crianças e adolescentes, registradas nos Conselhos Tutelares, e a associação dessas violências por faixas etárias das vítimas e vínculo com agressores, em 2003-2004. MÉTODO: foram coletados dados dos prontuários e calculadas as prevalências e associação entre variáveis, através da razão de prevalência (RP), com nível crítico de 5%. RESULTADOS: totalizaram 1.293 registros de violência, sendo 1.011 (78,1%) originados no domicílio. As violências mais freqüentes foram a negligência (727), por omissão de cuidados básicos (304) e abandono (259); a violência física (455), por espancamento (392), nas faixas de 2 a 13 anos; a violência psicológica (374), por amedrontamento (219); a violência sexual (68), por abuso (58), principalmente entre adolescentes. A principal forma de denúncia foi anônima, 398 (30,8%); os agressores para negligência foram os pais; para violência física, a madrasta e "outros agressores"; para violência sexual, o padrasto, "outros familiares/ agressores"; a violência psicológica foi prevalente entre todas categorias de agressores. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados apontam para a necessidade de divulgação do "Disque Denúncia"; a formação de conselheiros, quanto ao registro adequado, assim como a implementação de políticas de prevenção da violência contra crianças e adolescentes.<br>OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of violence against children and adolescents through the records of Child Protection Councils, associating this violence with the age of the victims and their links with the aggressor. METHOD: Data were collected from the records and the prevalence rates were calculated through the Prevalence Ratio (PR), together with the associations among variables, with a critical level of 5%. RESULTS: Out of 1,293 records of violence, 1,011 (78.1%), originated in the home. The most frequent types of violence were: neglect (727), failure to provide basic care (304) and abandonment (259); physical violence (455), beatings (392) between 2 and 13 years old; psychological violence (374) through threats (219); sexual violence (68) through abuse (58), mainly among adolescents. Denunciations were mainly (398) anonymous (30.8%); the aggressors through neglect were the parents; through physical violence, the stepmother and "other aggressors"; through sexual violence, the stepfather and "other relatives / aggressors"; psychological violence was prevalent among all aggressor categories. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate the need to extend the Anti-Violence Hot-line facilities, training Council Members in terms of keeping proper records, and implementing policies designed to prevent violence against children and adolescents

Noninvasive predictors of large varices in patients hospitalized with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage

Aim: To identify noninvasive factors predicting the presence of large varices (LV) in Patients hospitalized with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage (GEVH). Methods: Case records of Patients admitted with GEVH between January 1998 and June 2005 were retrospectively analyzed. Relevant clinical parameters assessed included Child-Pugh class, ascites (clinical and/or on ultrasound), portosystemic encephalopathy (PSE), splenomegaly (clinical and/or on ultrasound), and hemodynamic instability. The laboratory parameters assessed were hemoglobin level, platelet count, prothrombin time, serum bilirubin, and albumin. The ultrasonographic characteristics noted were splenic size, presence of splenic varices, and portal vein diameter. Results: A total of 420 Patients (264 men) presented with GEVH during the study period. The mean age, gender distribution, and presence of cirrhosis were similar in the two groups. Liver cirrhosis with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh class C, presence of clinically detectable ascites, grade 3-4 PSE, detectable splenomegaly, previous history of GEVH, hemodynamic instability and platelet count/=158 mm. Conclusion: Cirrhosis with HCC, clinical splenomegaly, hemodynamic instability, a previous history of GEVH, thrombocytopenia (i.e., platelet count /=158 mm are independent noninvasive predictors of large varices in Patients hospitalized with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage