Quitting patient care and career break intentions among general practitioners in South West England: findings of a census survey of general practitioners

Objective: Given recent concerns regarding general practitioner (GP) workforce capacity, we aimed to describe GPs’ career intentions, especially those which might impact on GP workforce availability over the next 5 years. Design: Census survey, conducted between April and June 2016 using postal and online responses , of all GPs on the National Health Service performers list and eligible to practise in primary care. Two reminders were used as necessary. Setting: South West England (population 3.5  million), a region with low overall socioeconomic deprivation. Participants: Eligible GPs were 2248 out of 3370 (67 % response rate). Main outcome measures: Reported likelihood of permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care or of taking a career break within the next 5 years and present morale weighted for non-response. Results: Responders included 217 7 GPs engaged in patient care. Of these, 863 (37% weighted, 95%  CI 35 % to 39 %) reported a high likelihood of quitting direct patient care within the next 5 years. Overall, 1535 (70% weighted, 95%  CI 68 % to 72 %) respondents reported a career intention that would negatively impact GP workforce capacity over the next 5 years, through permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care, or through taking a career break. GP age was an important predictor of career intentions; sharp increases in the proportion of GPs intending to quit patient care were evident from 52 years. Only 305 (14% weighted, 95%  CI 13 % to 16 %) reported high morale, while 1195 ( 54 % weighted, 95%  CI 52 % to 56 %) reported low morale. Low morale was particularly common among GP partners. Current morale strongly predicted GPs’ career intentions; those with very low morale were particularly likely to report intentions to quit patient care or to take a career break. Conclusions: A substantial majority of GPs in South West England report low morale. Many are considering career intentions which, if implemented, would adversely impact GP workforce capacity within a short time period. Study registration: NIHR HS&DR - 14/196/02, UKCRN ID 20700

Understanding why primary care doctors leave direct patient care: a systematic review of qualitative research

This is the final version. Available on open access from BMJ Publishing Group via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. No additional data available.Background UK general practitioners (GPs) are leaving direct patient care in significant numbers. We undertook a systematic review of qualitative research to identify factors affecting GPs’ leaving behaviour in the workforce as part of a wider mixed methods study (ReGROUP). Objective To identify factors that affect GPs’ decisions to leave direct patient care. Methods Qualitative interview-based studies were identified and their quality was assessed. A thematic analysis was performed and an explanatory model was constructed providing an overview of factors affecting UK GPs. Non-UK studies were considered separately. Results Six UK interview-based studies and one Australian interview-based study were identified. Three central dynamics that are key to understanding UK GP leaving behaviour were identified: factors associated with low job satisfaction, high job satisfaction and those linked to the doctor–patient relationship. The importance of contextual influence on job satisfaction emerged. GPs with high job satisfaction described feeling supported by good practice relationships, while GPs with poor job satisfaction described feeling overworked and unsupported with negatively impacted doctor–patient relationships. Conclusions Many GPs report that job satisfaction directly relates to the quality of the doctor–patient relationship. Combined with changing relationships with patients and interfaces with secondary care, and the gradual sense of loss of autonomy within the workplace, many GPs report a reduction in job satisfaction. Once job satisfaction has become negatively impacted, the combined pressure of increased patient demand and workload, together with other stress factors, has left many feeling unsupported and vulnerable to burn-out and ill health, and ultimately to the decision to leave general practice

Self-aligned megahertz organic transistors solution-processed on plastic

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Workforce predictive risk modelling: development of a model to identify general practices at risk of a supply−demand imbalance

Objective: This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model identifying general practices at risk of workforce supply–demand imbalance. Design: This is a secondary analysis of routine data on general practice workforce, patient experience and registered populations (2012 to 2016), combined with a census of general practitioners’ (GPs’) career intentions (2016). Setting/Participants: A hybrid approach was used to develop a model to predict workforce supply–demand imbalance based on practice factors using historical data (2012–2016) on all general practices in England (with over 1000 registered patients n=6398). The model was applied to current data (2016) to explore future risk for practices in South West England (n=368). Primary outcome measure: The primary outcome was a practice being in a state of workforce supply–demand imbalance operationally defined as being in the lowest third nationally of access scores according to the General Practice Patient Survey and the highest third nationally according to list size per full-time equivalent GP (weighted to the demographic distribution of registered patients and adjusted for deprivation). Results: Based on historical data, the predictive model had fair to good discriminatory ability to predict which practices faced supply–demand imbalance (area under receiver operating characteristic curve=0.755). Predictions using current data suggested that, on average, practices at highest risk of future supply–demand imbalance are currently characterised by having larger patient lists, employing more nurses, serving more deprived and younger populations, and having considerably worse patient experience ratings when compared with other practices. Incorporating findings from a survey of GP’s career intentions made little difference to predictions of future supply–demand risk status when compared with expected future workforce projections based only on routinely available data on GPs’ gender and age. Conclusions: It is possible to make reasonable predictions of an individual general practice’s future risk of undersupply of GP workforce with respect to its patient population. However, the predictions are inherently limited by the data available

Supersymmetric Higgs Yukawa Couplings to Bottom Quarks at next-to-next-to-leading Order

The effective bottom Yukawa couplings are analyzed for the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model at two-loop accuracy within SUSY-QCD. They include the resummation of the dominant corrections for large values of tg(beta). In particular the two-loop SUSY-QCD corrections to the leading SUSY-QCD and top-induced SUSY-electroweak contributions are addressed. The residual theoretical uncertainties range at the per-cent level.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures, added comments and references, typos corrected, results unchanged, published versio

Randomised controlled trial of an augmented exercise referral scheme using web-based behavioural support for inactive adults with chronic health conditions: the e-coachER trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adding web-based support (e-coachER) to an exercise referral scheme (ERS) increases objectively assessed physical activity (PA). DESIGN: Multicentre trial with participants randomised to usual ERS alone (control) or usual ERS plus e-coachER (intervention). SETTING: Primary care and ERS in three UK sites from 2015 to 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 450 inactive ERS referees with chronic health conditions. INTERVENTIONS: Participants received a pedometer, PA recording sheets and a user guide for the web-based support. e-coachER interactively encouraged the use of the ERS and other PA options. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary and key secondary outcomes were: objective moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) minutes (in ≥10 min bouts and without bouts), respectively, after 12 months. Secondary outcomes were: other accelerometer-derived and self-reported PA measures, ERS attendance, EQ-5D-5L, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and beliefs about PA. All outcomes were collected at baseline, 4 and 12 months. Primary analysis was an intention to treat comparison between intervention and control arms at 12-month follow-up. RESULTS: There was no significant effect of the intervention on weekly MVPA at 12 months between the groups recorded in ≥10 min bouts (mean difference 11.8 min of MVPA, 95% CI: -2.1 to 26.0; p=0.10) or without bouts (mean difference 13.7 min of MVPA, 95% CI: -26.8 to 54.2; p=0.51) for 232 participants with usable data. There was no difference in the primary or secondary PA outcomes at 4 or 12 months. CONCLUSION: Augmenting ERS referrals with web-based behavioural support had only a weak, non-significant effect on MVPA. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15644451

Approximation for Cooperative Interactions of a Spatially-Detailed Cardiac Sarcomere Model

We developed a novel ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, which produced results that correlated well with the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation when applied to a spatially-detailed model of the cardiac sarcomere. Configuration of the novel ODE model was based on the Ising model of myofilaments, with the “co-operative activation” effect introduced to incorporate nearest-neighbor interactions. First, a set of parameters was estimated using arbitrary Ca transient data to reproduce the combinational probability for the states of three consecutive regulatory units, using single unit probabilities for central and neighboring units in the MC simulation. The parameter set thus obtained enabled the calculation of the state transition of each unit using the ODE model with reference to the neighboring states. The present ODE model not only provided good agreement with the MC simulation results but was also capable of reproducing a wide range of experimental results under both steady-state and dynamic conditions including shortening twitch. The simulation results suggested that the nearest-neighbor interaction is a reasonable approximation of the cooperativity based on end-to-end interactions. Utilizing the modified ODE model resulted in a reduction in computational costs but maintained spatial integrity and co-operative effects, making it a powerful tool in cardiac modeling

Genome-wide association study with 1000 genomes imputation identifies signals for nine sex hormone-related phenotypes.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tThis is the final version of the article. Available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.Genetic factors contribute strongly to sex hormone levels, yet knowledge of the regulatory mechanisms remains incomplete. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified only a small number of loci associated with sex hormone levels, with several reproductive hormones yet to be assessed. The aim of the study was to identify novel genetic variants contributing to the regulation of sex hormones. We performed GWAS using genotypes imputed from the 1000 Genomes reference panel. The study used genotype and phenotype data from a UK twin register. We included 2913 individuals (up to 294 males) from the Twins UK study, excluding individuals receiving hormone treatment. Phenotypes were standardised for age, sex, BMI, stage of menstrual cycle and menopausal status. We tested 7,879,351 autosomal SNPs for association with levels of dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), oestradiol, free androgen index (FAI), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), prolactin, progesterone, sex hormone-binding globulin and testosterone. Eight independent genetic variants reached genome-wide significance (P<5 × 10(-8)), with minor allele frequencies of 1.3-23.9%. Novel signals included variants for progesterone (P=7.68 × 10(-12)), oestradiol (P=1.63 × 10(-8)) and FAI (P=1.50 × 10(-8)). A genetic variant near the FSHB gene was identified which influenced both FSH (P=1.74 × 10(-8)) and LH (P=3.94 × 10(-9)) levels. A separate locus on chromosome 7 was associated with both DHEAS (P=1.82 × 10(-14)) and progesterone (P=6.09 × 10(-14)). This study highlights loci that are relevant to reproductive function and suggests overlap in the genetic basis of hormone regulation.We thank Roche Diagnostics Australia Pty Limited, Castle Hill, Australia, who provided support for the analysis of the hormones. We thank the volunteer twins for their participation in the study. Twins UK received funding support from NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (grant to Guys’ and St Thomas’ Hospitals and King’s College London); the Chronic Disease Research Foundation; Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation, the Fonds de la Recherche en Santé Québec, The Lady Davis Institute, the Jewish General Hospital and Ministère du Développement économique, de l'Innovation et de l'Exportation du Quebec. The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC project grants 1010494, 1048216), and Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital Research (grant PP2009/028). This work was supported by funding from the Wellcome Trust (092447/Z/10/Z) and Medical Research Council (MC_U106179472)