Investment in online self-evaluation tests: A theoretical approach

BACKGROUND: Large-scale traumatic events may burden any affected public health system with consequential charges. One major post-disaster, expense factor emerges form early psychological interventions and subsequent, posttraumatic mental health care. Due to the constant increase in mental health care costs, also post-disaster public mental health requires best possible, cost-effective care systems. Screening and monitoring the affected population might be one such area to optimize the charges. METHODS: This paper analyzes the potential cost-effectiveness of monitoring a psychologically traumatized population and to motivate individuals at risk to seek early treatment. As basis for our model served Grossman's health production function, which was modified according to fundamental concepts of cost-benefit analyzes, to match the basic conditions of online monitoring strategies. We then introduce some fundamental concepts of cost-benefit analysis. RESULTS: When performing cost-benefit analyses, policy makers have to consider both direct costs (caused by treatment) and indirect costs (due to non-productivity). Considering both costs sources we find that the use of Internet-based psychometric screening instruments may reduce the duration of future treatment, psychological burden and treatment costs. CONCLUSION: The identification of individuals at risk for PTSD following a disaster may help organizations prevent both the human and the economic costs of this disease. Consequently future research on mental health issues should put more emphasis on the importance of monitoring to detect early PTSD and focus the most effective resources within early treatment and morbidity prevention

From dwindling ice to headwater lakes: could dams replace glaciers in the European Alps?

The potential exploitation of areas becoming ice-free in response to ongoing climate change has rarely been addressed, although it could be of interest from the water management perspective. Here we present an estimate for the potential of mitigating projected changes in seasonal water availability from melting glaciers by managing runoff through reservoirs. For the European Alps we estimate that by the end of the century, such a strategy could offset up to 65% of the expected summer-runoff changes from presently glacierized surfaces. A first-order approach suggests that the retention volume potentially available in the areas becoming deglacierized is in excess of the volume required for achieving the maximal possible mitigation by more than one order of magnitude. Obviously, however, such a strategy cannot compensate for the reduction in annual runoff caused by glacier ice depletion. Our estimates indicate that by 2070–2099, 0.73 ± 0.67 km3 a−1 of this non-renewable component of the water cycle could be missing in Alpine water supplies

Does inequality harm the middle class?

The paper provides estimates of the effect of economic inequality on middle class well being in Switzerland. Economic well being is proxied by a person's satisfaction with his/her income. Two inequality indicators are used, one standard (the Gini coefficient of the pre-tax income distribution) and one novel (the number of luxury car registrations per 1000 population). Identification is through cross-sectional variation of these indicators at various levels of spatial aggregation. Results using data from the Swiss Household Panel confirm the existence of a robust inverse relationship between inequality and satisfaction among the middle class

Predictive models of distribution and abundance of a threatened mountain species show that impacts of climate change overrule those of land use change

Aim: Climate is often the sole focus of global change research in mountain ecosystems although concomitant changes in land use might represent an equally important threat. As mountain species typically depend on fine‐scale environmental characteristics, integrating land use change in predictive models is crucial to properly assess their vulnerability. Here, we present a modelling framework that aims at providing more comprehensive projections of both species’ distribution and abundance under realistic scenarios of land use and climate change, and at disentangling their relative effects. Location: Switzerland. Methods: We used the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus), a red‐listed and declining mountain bird species, as a study model. Based on standardized monitoring data collected across the whole country, we fitted high‐resolution ensemble species distribution models to predict current occurrence probability, while spatially explicit density estimates were obtained from N‐mixture models. We then tested for the effects of realistic scenarios of land use (land abandonment versus farming intensification) and climate change on future species distribution and abundance. Results: Occurrence probability was mostly explained by climatic conditions, so that climate change was predicted to have larger impacts on distribution and abundance than any scenarios of land use change. In the mid‐term (2030–2050), predicted effects of environmental change show a high spatial heterogeneity due to regional differences in climate and dominant land use, with farming intensification identified as an important threat locally. In the long term (2080–2100), climate models forecast a marked upward range shift (up to +560 m) and further population decline (up to −35%). Main conclusions: Our innovative approach highlights the spatio‐temporal heterogeneity in the relative effects of different environmental drivers on species distribution and abundance. The proposed framework thus provides a useful tool not only for better assessing species’ vulnerability in the face of global change, but also for identifying key areas for conservation interventions at a meaningful scale