Forecasting investment: A fishing contest using survey data

This paper assesses the usefulness of business surveys as a source of information for investment developments in Portugal. This will be achieved by what will be named a “fishing contest”, where the “participants” are bridge models, models based on principal components (derived from standard and non-standard methods), and models built with the outcome of partial least squares regressions. All models, based on quarterly data, are estimated using a general-to-specific approach and are designed to produce 1 to 4 out-of-sample direct forecasts. The accuracy of these forecasts is then compared with the one of autoregressive processes. The empirical evidence indicates that, in general, there is always a participant in the fishing context that produces a lower out-of-sample Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) than the one associated with the autoregressive benchmark. In most cases, the combination of autoregressive processes with each participant reduces the RMSE further. A striking outcome is the relative accuracy of bridge models.

Understanding demand and pricing behaviour in the car rental business

This project intends to understand how the demand and price for a Portuguese car rental company vary. As a result, we expect to obtain a system that collects the relevant price and occupancy values stored in different files by the company, load them into a database, so that later it is possible to establish a link to data analysis tools. These data analysis tools involve different data mining techniques, with emphasis on visualization and association. This system will allow future analyzes of other data by other researchers and company employees. Moreover, the analyses obtained will allow the company to adapt behaviors and to obtain a better understanding of its positioning in the car rental business

Variations of biofouling communities in an off-shore fish cage farm from North-Western Sardinia = Variazioni del biofouling in un allevamento ittico in gabbie off-shore della Sardegna nord-occidentale

Biofouling variations were studied in a fish farming facility near Alghero (Italy) between November 2007 and November 2008. Net panels suitable for the settlement of encrusting organisms were immersed in cages in which large and small gilthead seabream specimens were reared. Significant differences in biofouling biomass and coverage were observed between cages containing fish and controls. The results obtained revealed that gilthead seabream can exert a crucial role in controlling biofouling growth, independently from its size

Phytotoxic metabolites produced by Botryosphaeriaceae involved in grapevine trunk diseases

Fungi belonging to the Botryosphaeriaceae family are well known as cosmopolitan pathogens, saprophytes and endophytes and occur on a wide range of hosts including grapevine. More recently, a new species of Lasiodiplodia was isolated from declining grapevines in Sardinia (Italy). This still undescribed species showed to produce in liquid culture several phytotoxic secondary metabolites. In this communication the chemical and biological characterization of these bioactive secondary metabolites is discussed together with their role in the pathogenesis process

Satisfação profissional e saúde mental: estudo empírico com uma amostra de docentes do Ensino Superior

Analizamos la relación entre la satisfacción laboral y la percepción de la justicia, la existencia de diferencias entre la satisfacción en el trabajo y las variables socio-profesionales; está presente una asociación inversa entre las dimensiones de la satisfacción en el trabajo y las dimensiones relacionadas con la salud mental. El estudio incluye profesores de ISMT y ESTES, los instrumentos utilizados fueron un "Cuestionario sociodemográfico", el TJSQ, QPJ y la BSI. De los 81 maestros que participaron en el estudio, el 59,3% eran mujeres y el 40,7% fueron varones. El TJSQ mostró puntuaciones positivas significativas entre sí, sensiblemente, relativas a los factores 1, 2 y 4. La relación entre los factores QPJ y TJSQ demostró que los factores 1 y 2 del TJSQ y los diferentes factores que componen la escala QPJ alcanzar significación estadística y los factores 3, 4 y 5 de la TJSQ alcanzan altas correlaciones significativas con todas los factores QPJ. Las correlaciones entre los TJSQ con las variables socio-demográficas, no descubren las relaciones significativas, salvo en el género y en los factores 3 y 4 y el tipo de institución educativa. La TJSQ muestra correlación negativa con casi la totalidad de las dimensiones de la BSI. El Factor 4 de la TJSQ y dimensiones de la BSI es la excepción, ya que tiene un valor muy significativo a la Sensibilidad interpersonal, Depresión, hostilidad, ansiedad, fobia y la ideación paranoide.We analyse the relation between job satisfaction and perceptions of justice, the existence of differences between job satisfaction and socio-professional variables; an inverse association between the dimensions of job satisfaction and the dimensions related to mental health is present. The study includes teachers of ISMT and ESTES, the instruments used were a “Socio-Demographic Questionnaire”, the TJSQ, the QPJ and the BSI. The 81 teachers who participated in the study 59.3% were female and 40.7% were male. The TJSQ showed significant positive scores amongst themselves, noticeably, relating to factors 1, 2 and 4. The relationship between TJSQ and the QPJ factors showed that TJSQ factor 1, 2 and the different factors that make up the QPJ scale reach statistical significance and factors 3, 4 and 5 of the TJSQ reach highly significant correlations with all QPJ factors. The correlations between the TJSQ with socio-demographic variables, no significant relations are discovered, except in gender and in factors 3 and 4 and the type of educational institution. The TJSQ shows very low and negative correlations with almost the entire dimensions of the BSI. Factor 4 of the TJSQ and dimensions of the BSI is the exception since it has significant value to the Interpersonal Sensitivity, Depression, Hostility, Anxiety, Phobic and Paranoid Ideation.Analisamos a relação entre a satisfação profissional e as perceções de justiça, se existem diferenças entre a satisfação profissional e as variáveis socioprofissionais, se há associação inversa entre as dimensões da satisfação profissional e as dimensões ligadas à saúde mental. O estudo inclui docentes do ISMT e da ESTES e foram administrados o QS, a TJSQ, o QPJ e a BSI. Dos 81 docentes que participaram 59,3% são do sexo feminino e 40,7% do sexo masculino. A TJSQ apresenta pontuações positivas e significativas entre si com o fator 1, 2 e 4. Encontramos correlações altamente significantes entre a TJSQ e o QPJ, verifica-se que o fator 1, 2 da TJSQ e os fatores do QPJ atingem significância estatística e os fatores 3, 4 e fator 5 da TJSQ correlações altamente significantes com o QPJ. Na correlação da TJSQ com variáveis sociodemográficas não se revelam relações significativas exceto, no género e no fator 3 e 4 com o tipo de estabelecimento de ensino. No TJSQ existem correlações baixas e negativas com a quase totalidade das dimensões do BSI. O fator 4 do TJSQ e dimensões do BSI é exceção dado que há valores significativos, com a Sensibilidade Interpessoal, Depressão e Ideação ParanoidepeerReviewe

A general election is coming, what can we expect?

With a UK General Election set for July 4, our experts give their analysis and reflections on the campaign ahead

La Influencia Del Consejo De Administración Y Del Auditor En La Divulgación De Instrumentos Financieros Derivados: Evidencia Sobre El Mercado De Capitales Portugués

Purpose: This article aims to analyze the influence of certain characteristics of the board of directors and the auditor on the disclosure of derivative financial instruments. Theoretical framework: Operations with derivative instruments are associated with high risks, so the disclosure of these operations and their results helps to reduce information asymmetries. On the other hand, acccording to agency theory, the characteristics of the board of directors and of the auditor can affect the quality and the level of financial information disclosed. Design/methodology/approach: The data were obtained through content analysis, considering the 2017 reports and accounts of 37 companies listed on Euronext Lisbon, through a disclosure index. Subsequently, a multiple linear regression model was developed to identify the determinants of the level of disclosure about derivative instruments. Findings: The results revealed that only the number of independent members on the board of directors, the auditor's gender, and the size of the entity influence the level of disclosure about derivative instruments. Research, Practical & Social implications: This study may be useful for regulators in setting disclosure requirements for derivative instruments and useful in companies' decision making in defining the members of the board and the auditor. Originality/value: It contributes to the literature on compliance with IFRS and contributes to the perception of the influence of certain characteristics associated with the board of directors and the auditor in the disclosure of derivative instruments.Objetivo: Este artículo tiene como objetivo analizar la influencia de determinadas características del consejo de administración y del auditor en la divulgación de los instrumentos financieros derivados.   Método: Los datos se obtuvieron mediante análisis de contenido, considerando los informes y cuentas de 2017 de 37 empresas cotizadas en Euronext Lisboa, a través de un índice de divulgación. Posteriormente, se desarrolló un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple para identificar los determinantes del nivel de divulgación sobre instrumentos derivados.   Originalidad / Relevancia Las operaciones con instrumentos derivados están asociadas a altos riesgos, por lo que la divulgación de estas operaciones y sus resultados ayuda a reducir las asimetrías de información. Por otro lado, según la teoría de la agencia, las características del consejo de administración y del auditor pueden afectar la calidad y el nivel de la información financiera divulgada.   Resultados (obligatorio): Los resultados revelaron que solo el número de miembros independientes en el consejo de administración, el género del auditor y el tamaño de la entidad influyen en el nivel de divulgación sobre los instrumentos derivados.   Contribuciones teóricas / metodológicas: Este estudio puede ser útil para que los reguladores establezcan requisitos de divulgación para instrumentos derivados y útil en la toma de decisiones de las empresas para definir los miembros del consejo y el auditor.   Contribuciones sociales / gerenciales: Contribuye a la literatura sobre el cumplimiento de las NIIF y contribuye a la percepción de la influencia de determinadas características asociadas al consejo de administración y al auditor en la divulgación de instrumentos derivados.

Human-Machine Collaboration Approaches to Build a Dialogue Dataset for Hate Speech Countering

Fighting online hate speech is a challenge that is usually addressed using Natural Language Processing via automatic detection and removal of hate content. Besides this approach, counter narratives have emerged as an effective tool employed by NGOs to respond to online hate on social media platforms. For this reason, Natural Language Generation is currently being studied as a way to automatize counter narrative writing. However, the existing resources necessary to train NLG models are limited to 2-turn interactions (a hate speech and a counter narrative as response), while in real life, interactions can consist of multiple turns. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach for dialogical data collection, which combines the intervention of human expert annotators over machine generated dialogues obtained using 19 different configurations. The result of this work is DIALOCONAN, the first dataset comprising over 3000 fictitious multi-turn dialogues between a hater and an NGO operator, covering 6 targets of hate.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of the 2022 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (long paper