Efficient Bayesian inference for COM-Poisson regression models

COM-Poisson regression is an increasingly popular model for count data. Its main advantage is that it permits to model separately the mean and the variance of the counts, thus allowing the same covariate to affect in different ways the average level and the variability of the response variable. A key limiting factor to the use of the COM-Poisson distribution is the calculation of the normalisation constant: its accurate evaluation can be time-consuming and is not always feasible. We circumvent this problem, in the context of estimating a Bayesian COM-Poisson regression, by resorting to the exchange algorithm, an MCMC method applicable to situations where the sampling model (likelihood) can only be computed up to a normalisation constant. The algorithm requires to draw from the sampling model, which in the case of the COM-Poisson distribution can be done efficiently using rejection sampling. We illustrate the method and the benefits of using a Bayesian COM-Poisson regression model, through a simulation and two real-world data sets with different levels of dispersion

Revised estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, United States, 1995 through 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is thought to be substantial. However, influenza may often not be recognized as cause of death. Imputation methods are therefore required to assess the public health impact of influenza. The purpose of this study was to obtain estimates of monthly excess mortality due to influenza that are based on an epidemiologically meaningful model.</p> <p>Methods and Results</p> <p>U.S. monthly all-cause mortality, 1995 through 2005, was hierarchically modeled as Poisson variable with a mean that linearly depends both on seasonal covariates and on influenza-certified mortality. It also allowed for overdispersion to account for extra variation that is not captured by the Poisson error. The coefficient associated with influenza-certified mortality was interpreted as ratio of total influenza mortality to influenza-certified mortality. Separate models were fitted for four age categories (<18, 18–49, 50–64, 65+). Bayesian parameter estimation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For the eleven year study period, a total of 260,814 (95% CI: 201,011–290,556) deaths was attributed to influenza, corresponding to an annual average of 23,710, or 0.91% of all deaths.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Annual estimates for influenza mortality were highly variable from year to year, but they were systematically lower than previously published estimates. The excellent fit of our model with the data suggest validity of our estimates.</p

Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches in modelling risk of preterm birth near the Sydney Tar Ponds, Nova Scotia, Canada

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study compares the Bayesian and frequentist (non-Bayesian) approaches in the modelling of the association between the risk of preterm birth and maternal proximity to hazardous waste and pollution from the Sydney Tar Pond site in Nova Scotia, Canada.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data includes 1604 observed cases of preterm birth out of a total population of 17559 at risk of preterm birth from 144 enumeration districts in the Cape Breton Regional Municipality. Other covariates include the distance from the Tar Pond; the rate of unemployment to population; the proportion of persons who are separated, divorced or widowed; the proportion of persons who have no high school diploma; the proportion of persons living alone; the proportion of single parent families and average income. Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression, quasi-likelihood Poisson regression and weighted linear regression models were fitted to the data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results of the analyses were compared together with their limitations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of the weighted linear regression and the quasi-likelihood Poisson regression agrees with the result from the Bayesian hierarchical modelling which incorporates the spatial effects.</p

Religious affiliation modulates weekly cycles of cropland burning in Sub-Saharan Africa

Research ArticleVegetation burning is a common land management practice in Africa, where fire is used for hunting, livestock husbandry, pest control, food gathering, cropland fertilization, and wildfire prevention. Given such strong anthropogenic control of fire, we tested the hypotheses that fire activity displays weekly cycles, and that the week day with the fewest fires depends on regionally predominant religious affiliation.We also analyzed the effect of land use (anthrome) on weekly fire cycle significance. Fire density (fire counts.km-2) observed per week day in each region was modeled using a negative binomial regression model, with fire counts as response variable, region area as offset and a structured random effect to account for spatial dependence. Anthrome (settled, cropland, natural, rangeland), religion (Christian, Muslim, mixed) week day, and their 2-way and 3-way interactions were used as independent variables. Models were also built separately for each anthrome, relating regional fire density with week day and religious affiliation. Analysis revealed a significant interaction between religion and week day, i.e. regions with different religious affiliation (Christian, Muslim) display distinct weekly cycles of burning. However, the religion vs. week day interaction only is significant for croplands, i.e. fire activity in African croplands is significantly lower on Sunday in Christian regions and on Friday in Muslim regions. Magnitude of fire activity does not differ significantly among week days in rangelands and in natural areas, where fire use is under less strict control than in croplands. These findings can contribute towards improved specification of ignition patterns in regional/global vegetation fire models, and may lead to more accurate meteorological and chemical weather forecastinginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Global quantitative indices reflecting provider process-of-care: data-base derivation

Background: Controversy has attended the relationship between risk-adjusted mortality and process-of-care. There would be advantage in the establishment, at the data-base level, of global quantitative indices subsuming the diversity of process-of-care. Methods: A retrospective, cohort study of patients identified in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 1993-2003, at the level of geographic and ICU-level descriptors (n = 35), for both hospital survivors and non-survivors. Process-of-care indices were established by analysis of: (i) the smoothed time-hazard curve of individual patient discharge and determined by pharmaco-kinetic methods as area under the hazard-curve (AUC), reflecting the integrated experience of the discharge process, and time-to-peak-hazard (TMAX, in days), reflecting the time to maximum rate of hospital discharge; and (ii) individual patient ability to optimize output (as length-of-stay) for recorded data-base physiological inputs; estimated as a technical production-efficiency (TE, scaled [0,(maximum)1]), via the econometric technique of stochastic frontier analysis. For each descriptor, multivariate correlation-relationships between indices and summed mortality probability were determined. Results: The data-set consisted of 223129 patients from 99 ICUs with mean (SD) age and APACHE III score of 59.2(18.9) years and 52.7(30.6) respectively; 41.7% were female and 45.7% were mechanically ventilated within the first 24 hours post-admission. For survivors, AUC was maximal in rural and for-profit ICUs, whereas TMAX (≥ 7.8 days) and TE (≥ 0.74) were maximal in tertiary-ICUs. For non-survivors, AUC was maximal in tertiary-ICUs, but TMAX (≥ 4.2 days) and TE (≥ 0.69) were maximal in for-profit ICUs. Across descriptors, significant differences in indices were demonstrated (analysisof- variance, P ≤ 0.0001). Total explained variance, for survivors (0.89) and non-survivors (0.89), was maximized by combinations of indices demonstrating a low correlation with mortality probability. Conclusions: Global indices reflecting process of care may be formally established at the level of national patient databases. These indices appear orthogonal to mortality outcome.John L Moran, Patricia J Solomon and the Adult Database Management Committee (ADMC) of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS

Density-Dependent Mortality of the Human Host in Onchocerciasis: Relationships between Microfilarial Load and Excess Mortality

Human onchocerciasis (River Blindness) is a parasitic disease leading to visual impairment including blindness. Blindness may lead to premature death, but infection with the parasite itself (Onchocerca volvulus) may also cause excess mortality in sighted individuals. The excess risk of mortality may not be directly (linearly) proportional to the intensity of infection (a measure of how many parasites an individual harbours). We analyze cohort data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa, collected between 1974 and 2001, by fitting a suite of quantitative models (including a ‘null’ model of no relationship between infection intensity and mortality, a (log-) linear function, and two plateauing curves), and choosing the one that is the most statistically adequate. The risk of human mortality initially increases with parasite density but saturates at high densities (following an S-shape curve), and such risk is greater in younger individuals for a given infection intensity. Our results have important repercussions for programmes aiming to control onchocerciasis (in terms of how the benefits of the programme are calculated), for measuring the burden of disease and mortality caused by the infection, and for a better understanding of the processes that govern the density of parasite populations among human hosts

Association between TCF7L2 gene polymorphisms and susceptibility to Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: a large Human Genome Epidemiology (HuGE) review and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Transcription factor 7-like 2 (<it>TCF7L2</it>) has been shown to be associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2MD) in multiple ethnic groups in the past two years, but, contradictory results were reported for Chinese and Pima Indian populations. The authors then performed a large meta-analysis of 36 studies examining the association of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with polymorphisms in the <it>TCF7L2 </it>gene in various ethnicities, containing rs7903146 C-to-T (IVS3C>T), rs7901695 T-to-C (IVS3T>C), a rs12255372 G-to-T (IVS4G>T), and rs11196205 G-to-C (IVS4G>C) polymorphisms and to evaluate the size of gene effect and the possible genetic mode of action.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Literature-based searching was conducted to collect data and three methods, that is, fixed-effects, random-effects and Bayesian multivariate mete-analysis, were performed to pool the odds ratio (<it>OR</it>). Publication bias and study-between heterogeneity were also examined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The studies included 35,843 cases of T2DM and 39,123 controls, using mainly primary data. For T2DM and IVS3C>T polymorphism, the Bayesian <it>OR </it>for TT homozygotes and TC heterozygotes versus CC homozygote was 1.968 (95% credible interval (<it>CrI</it>): 1.790, 2.157), 1.406 (95% <it>CrI</it>: 1.341, 1.476), respectively, and the population attributable risk (PAR) for the TT/TC genotypes of this variant is 16.9% for overall. For T2DM and IVS4G>T polymorphism, TT homozygotes and TG heterozygotes versus GG homozygote was 1.885 (95%<it>CrI</it>: 1.698, 2.088), 1.360 (95% <it>CrI</it>: 1.291, 1.433), respectively. Four <it>OR</it>s among these two polymorphisms all yielded significant between-study heterogeneity (P < 0.05) and the main source of heterogeneity was ethnic differences. Data also showed significant associations between T2DM and the other two polymorphisms, but with low heterogeneity (<it>P </it>> 0.10). Pooled <it>OR</it>s fit a codominant, multiplicative genetic model for all the four polymorphisms of <it>TCF7L2 </it>gene, and this model was also confirmed in different ethnic populations when stratification of IVS3C>T and IVS4G>T polymorphisms except for Africans, where a dominant, additive genetic mode is suggested for IVS3C>T polymorphism.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This meta-analysis demonstrates that four variants of <it>TCF7L2 </it>gene are all associated with T2DM, and indicates a multiplicative genetic model for all the four polymorphisms, as well as suggests the <it>TCF7L2 </it>gene involved in near 1/5 of all T2MD. Potential gene-gene and gene-environmental interactions by which common variants in the <it>TCF7L2 </it>gene influence the risk of T2MD need further exploration.</p

Systematic review of methods used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event

addresses: Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry, St Luke's Campus, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. [email protected]: PMCID: PMC3528446types: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't© 2012 Warren et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Adverse consequences of medical interventions are a source of concern, but clinical trials may lack power to detect elevated rates of such events, while observational studies have inherent limitations. Meta-analysis allows the combination of individual studies, which can increase power and provide stronger evidence relating to adverse events. However, meta-analysis of adverse events has associated methodological challenges. The aim of this study was to systematically identify and review the methodology used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event, following a therapeutic intervention