Scaling Up the 2010 World Health Organization HIV Treatment Guidelines in Resource-Limited Settings: A Model-Based Analysis

Rochelle Walensky and colleagues use a model-based analysis to examine which of the 2010 WHO antiretroviral therapy guidelines should be implemented first in resource-limited settings by ranking them according to survival, cost-effectiveness, and equity

Overeating, caloric restriction and breast cancer risk by pathologic subtype: the EPIGEICAM study

This study analyzes the association of excessive energy intake and caloric restriction with breast cancer (BC) risk taking into account the individual energy needs of Spanish women. We conducted a multicenter matched case-control study where 973 pairs completed lifestyle and food frequency questionnaires. Expected caloric intake was predicted from a linear regression model in controls, including calories consumed as dependent variable, basal metabolic rate as an offset and physical activity as explanatory. Overeating and caloric restriction were defined taking into account the 99% confidence interval of the predicted value. The association with BC risk, overall and by pathologic subtype, was evaluated using conditional and multinomial logistic regression models. While premenopausal women that consumed few calories (>20% below predicted) had lower BC risk (OR = 0.36; 95% CI = 0.21–0.63), postmenopausal women with an excessive intake (≥40% above predicted) showed an increased risk (OR = 2.81; 95% CI = 1.65–4.79). For every 20% increase in relative (observed/predicted) caloric intake the risk of hormone receptor positive (p-trend < 0.001) and HER2+ (p-trend = 0.015) tumours increased 13%, being this figure 7% for triple negative tumours. While high energy intake increases BC risk, caloric restriction could be protective. Moderate caloric restriction, in combination with regular physical activity, could be a good strategy for BC prevention

Data Descriptor: Ash leaf metabolomes reveal differences between trees tolerant and susceptible to ash dieback disease

CMS was funded by the ‘Nornex’ project jointly by UK BBSRC (BBS/E/J/000CA5323) and DEFRA and a BBSRC Tools and Resources grant (BB/N021452/1) awarded to M.G. and D.J.S

Utility of CD4 cell counts for early prediction of virological failure during antiretroviral therapy in a resource-limited setting

BACKGROUND: Viral load monitoring is not available for the vast majority of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings. However, the practical utility of CD4 cell count measurements as an alternative monitoring strategy has not been rigorously assessed. METHODS: In this study, we used a novel modelling approach that accounted for all CD4 cell count and VL values measured during follow-up from the first date that VL suppression was achieved. We determined the associations between CD4 counts (absolute values and changes during ART), VL measurements and risk of virological failure (VL > 1,000 copies/ml) following initial VL suppression in 330 patients in South Africa. CD4 count changes were modelled both as the difference from baseline (DeltaCD4 count) and the difference between consecutive values (CD4 count slope) using all 3-monthly CD4 count measurements during follow-up. RESULTS: During 7093.2 patient-months of observation 3756 paired CD4 count and VL measurements were made. In patients who developed virological failure (n = 179), VL correlated significantly with absolute CD4 counts (r = - 0.08, P = 0.003), DeltaCD4 counts (r = - 0.11, P < 0.01), and most strongly with CD4 count slopes (r = - 0.30, P < 0.001). However, the distributions of the absolute CD4 counts, DeltaCD4 counts and CD4 count slopes at the time of virological failure did not differ significantly from the corresponding distributions in those without virological failure (P = 0.99, P = 0.92 and P = 0.75, respectively). Moreover, in a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the association between a negative CD4 count slope and virological failure was poor (area under the curve = 0.59; sensitivity = 53.0%; specificity = 63.6%; positive predictive value = 10.9%). CONCLUSION: CD4 count changes correlated significantly with VL at group level but had very limited utility in identifying virological failure in individual patients. CD4 count is an inadequate alternative to VL measurement for early detection of virological failure

Can Disease Management Target Patients Most Likely to Generate High Costs? The Impact of Comorbidity

CONTEXT: Disease management programs are increasingly used to manage costs of patients with chronic disease. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the clinical characteristics and measure the health care expenditures of patients most likely to be targeted by disease management programs. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively obtained data. SETTING: A general medicine practice with both faculty and residents at an urban academic medical center. PARTICIPANTS: Five thousand eight hundred sixty-one patients enrolled in the practice for at least 1 year. MAIN OUTCOMES: Annual cost of diseases targeted by disease management. MEASUREMENTS: Patients’ clinical and demographic information were collected from a computer system used to manage patients. Data included diagnostic information, medications, and resource usage over 1 year. We looked at 10 common diseases targeted by disease management programs. RESULTS: Unadjusted annual median costs for chronic diseases ranged between $1,100 and$1,500. Congestive heart failure ($1,500), stroke ($1,500), diabetes ($1,500), and cancer ($1,400) were the most expensive. As comorbidity increased, annual adjusted costs increased exponentially. Those with comorbidity scores of 2 or more accounted for 26% of the population but 50% of the overall costs. CONCLUSIONS: Costs for individual chronic conditions vary within a relatively narrow range. However, the costs for patients with multiple coexisting medical conditions increase rapidly. Reducing health care costs will require focusing on patients with multiple comorbid diseases, not just single diseases. The overwhelming impact of comorbidity on costs raises significant concerns about the potential ability of disease management programs to limit the costs of care

Finite Size Effects in Simulations of Protein Aggregation

It is becoming increasingly clear that the soluble protofibrillar species that proceed amyloid fibril formation are associated with a range of neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson diseases. Computer simulations of the processes that lead to the formation of these oligomeric species are starting to make significant contributions to our understanding of the determinants of protein aggregation. We simulate different systems at constant concentration but with a different number of peptides and we study the how the finite number of proteins affects the underlying free energy of the system and therefore the relative stability of the species involved in the process. If not taken into account, this finite size effect can undermine the validity of theoretical predictions regarding the relative stability of the species involved and the rates of conversion from one to the other. We discuss the reasons that give rise to this finite size effect form both a probabilistic and energy fluctuations point of view and also how this problem can be dealt by a finite size scaling analysis

Global quantitative indices reflecting provider process-of-care: data-base derivation

Background: Controversy has attended the relationship between risk-adjusted mortality and process-of-care. There would be advantage in the establishment, at the data-base level, of global quantitative indices subsuming the diversity of process-of-care. Methods: A retrospective, cohort study of patients identified in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 1993-2003, at the level of geographic and ICU-level descriptors (n = 35), for both hospital survivors and non-survivors. Process-of-care indices were established by analysis of: (i) the smoothed time-hazard curve of individual patient discharge and determined by pharmaco-kinetic methods as area under the hazard-curve (AUC), reflecting the integrated experience of the discharge process, and time-to-peak-hazard (TMAX, in days), reflecting the time to maximum rate of hospital discharge; and (ii) individual patient ability to optimize output (as length-of-stay) for recorded data-base physiological inputs; estimated as a technical production-efficiency (TE, scaled [0,(maximum)1]), via the econometric technique of stochastic frontier analysis. For each descriptor, multivariate correlation-relationships between indices and summed mortality probability were determined. Results: The data-set consisted of 223129 patients from 99 ICUs with mean (SD) age and APACHE III score of 59.2(18.9) years and 52.7(30.6) respectively; 41.7% were female and 45.7% were mechanically ventilated within the first 24 hours post-admission. For survivors, AUC was maximal in rural and for-profit ICUs, whereas TMAX (≥ 7.8 days) and TE (≥ 0.74) were maximal in tertiary-ICUs. For non-survivors, AUC was maximal in tertiary-ICUs, but TMAX (≥ 4.2 days) and TE (≥ 0.69) were maximal in for-profit ICUs. Across descriptors, significant differences in indices were demonstrated (analysisof- variance, P ≤ 0.0001). Total explained variance, for survivors (0.89) and non-survivors (0.89), was maximized by combinations of indices demonstrating a low correlation with mortality probability. Conclusions: Global indices reflecting process of care may be formally established at the level of national patient databases. These indices appear orthogonal to mortality outcome.John L Moran, Patricia J Solomon and the Adult Database Management Committee (ADMC) of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS

Gender differences in the utilization of health-care services among the older adult population of Spain

BACKGROUND: Compared to men, women report greater morbidity and make greater use of health-care services. This study examines potential determinants of gender differences in the utilization of health-care services among the elderly. METHODS: Cross-sectional study covering 3030 subjects, representative of the non-institutionalized Spanish population aged 60 years and over. Potential determinants of gender differences in the utilization of health services were classified into predisposing factors (age and head-of-family status), need factors (lifestyles, chronic diseases, functional status, cognitive deficit and health-related quality of life (HRQL)) and enabling factors (educational level, marital status, head-of-family employment status and social network). Relative differences in the use of each service between women and men were summarized using odds ratios (OR), obtained from logistic regression. The contribution of the variables of interest to the gender differences in the use of such services was evaluated by comparing the OR before and after adjustment for such variables. RESULTS: As compared to men, a higher percentage of women visited a medical practitioner (OR: 1.24; 95% confidence limits (CL): 1.07–1.44), received home medical visits (OR: 1.67; 95% CL: 1.34–2.10) and took ≥3 medications (OR: 1.54; 95% CL: 1.34–1.79), but there were no gender differences in hospital admission or influenza vaccination. Adjustment for need or enabling factors led to a reduction in the OR of women compared to men for utilization of a number of services studied. On adjusting for the number of chronic diseases, the OR (95% CL) of women versus men for ingestion of ≥3 medications was 1.24 (1.06–1.45). After adjustment for HRQL, the OR was 1.03 (0.89–1.21) for visits to medical practitioners, 1.24 (0.98–1.58) for home medical visits, 0.71 (0.58–0.87) for hospitalization, and 1.14 (0.97–1.33) for intake of ≥3 medications. After adjustment for the number of chronic diseases and HRQL, the OR of hospitalization among women versus men was 0.68 (0.56–0.84). CONCLUSION: The factors that best explain the greater utilization of health-care services by elderly women versus men are the number of chronic diseases and HRQL. For equal need, certain inequality was observed in hospital admission, in that it proved less frequent among women

Protective Effects of Positive Lysosomal Modulation in Alzheimer's Disease Transgenic Mouse Models

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is an age-related neurodegenerative pathology in which defects in proteolytic clearance of amyloid β peptide (Aβ) likely contribute to the progressive nature of the disorder. Lysosomal proteases of the cathepsin family exhibit up-regulation in response to accumulating proteins including Aβ1–42. Here, the lysosomal modulator Z-Phe-Ala-diazomethylketone (PADK) was used to test whether proteolytic activity can be enhanced to reduce the accumulation events in AD mouse models expressing different levels of Aβ pathology. Systemic PADK injections in APPSwInd and APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice caused 3- to 8-fold increases in cathepsin B protein levels and 3- to 10-fold increases in the enzyme's activity in lysosomal fractions, while neprilysin and insulin-degrading enzyme remained unchanged. Biochemical analyses indicated the modulation predominantly targeted the active mature forms of cathepsin B and markedly changed Rab proteins but not LAMP1, suggesting the involvement of enhanced trafficking. The modulated lysosomal system led to reductions in both Aβ immunostaining as well as Aβx-42 sandwich ELISA measures in APPSwInd mice of 10–11 months. More extensive Aβ deposition in 20-22-month APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice was also reduced by PADK. Selective ELISAs found that a corresponding production of the less pathogenic Aβ1–38 occurs as Aβ1–42 levels decrease in the mouse models, indicating that PADK treatment leads to Aβ truncation. Associated with Aβ clearance was the elimination of behavioral and synaptic protein deficits evident in the two transgenic models. These findings indicate that pharmacologically-controlled lysosomal modulation reduces Aβ1–42 accumulation, possibly through intracellular truncation that also influences extracellular deposition, and in turn offsets the defects in synaptic composition and cognitive functions. The selective modulation promotes clearance at different levels of Aβ pathology and provides proof-of-principle for small molecule therapeutic development for AD and possibly other protein accumulation disorders