Policy design for the Anthropocene

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordToday, more than ever, ‘Spaceship Earth’ is an apt metaphor as we chart the boundaries for a safe planet1. Social scientists both analyse why society courts disaster by approaching or even overstepping these boundaries and try to design suitable policies to avoid these perils. Because the threats of transgressing planetary boundaries are global, long-run, uncertain and interconnected, they must be analysed together to avoid conflicts and take advantage of synergies. To obtain policies that are effective at both international and local levels requires careful analysis of the underlying mechanisms across scientific disciplines and approaches, and must take politics into account. In this Perspective, we examine the complexities of designing policies that can keep Earth within the biophysical limits favourable to human life.Stockholm Resilience CentreBECC - Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing ClimateMistra Carbon Exi

The predictive role of serum and bronchoalveolar lavage cytokines and adhesion molecules for acute respiratory distress syndrome development and outcome

BACKGROUND: The predictive role of many cytokines and adhesion molecules has not been studied systematically in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). METHODS: We measured prospectively tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin (IL)-1, soluble vascular adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) in serum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) within 2 hours following admission, in 65 patients. The patients were divided into: those fulfilling the criteria for ARDS (n = 23, group A), those who were pre-ARDS and who developed ARDS within 24 hours (n = 14, group B), and those on pre-ARDS but who never developed ARDS (n = 28, group C). RESULTS: All the measured molecules were only found at higher levels in the serum of patients that died either with or without ARDS (P < 0.05 – P < 0.0001). Patients at risk exhibited a good negative predictive value (NPV) of the measured molecules for ARDS development both in their serum (89 to 95%) and BALF (86 to 92%) levels. In contrast to BALF, serum levels of IL-1 and adhesion molecules exhibited a good NPV (68 to 96%), sensitivity (60 to 88%) and survival specificity (74 to 96%) in all groups. All molecules in serum and BALF IL-1 were correlated with the APACHE II (P < 0.05 – P < 0.0001). Serum and BALF IL-1 as well as BALF TNF-α were negatively correlated to PaO(2)/FiO(2) (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The studied molecules have good NPV for ARDS development both in serum and BALF. Serum rather than BALF levels seem to be related to outcome

Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice

Uncertainty plays a significant role in evaluating climate policy, and fat-tailed uncertainty may dominate policy advice. Should we make our utmost effort to prevent the arbitrarily large impacts of climate change under deep uncertainty? In order to answer to this question, we propose a new way of investigating the impact of (fat-tailed) uncertainty on optimal climate policy: the curvature of the optimal carbon tax against the uncertainty. We find that the optimal carbon tax increases as the uncertainty about climate sensitivity increases, but it does not accelerate as implied by Weitzman's Dismal Theorem. We find the same result in a wide variety of sensitivity analyses. These results emphasize the importance of balancing the costs of climate change against its benefits, also under deep uncertainty. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

Biochemical mutagens affect the preservation of fungi and biodiversity estimations

Many fungi have significant industrial applications or biosafety concerns and maintaining the original characteristics is essential. The preserved fungi have to represent the situation in nature for posterity, biodiversity estimations, and taxonomic research. However, spontaneous fungal mutations and secondary metabolites affecting producing fungi are well known. There is increasing interest in the preservation of microbes in Biological Resource Centers (BRC) to ensure that the organisms remain viable and stable genetically. It would be anathema if they contacted mutagens routinely. However, for the purpose of this discussion, there are three potential sources of biochemical mutagens when obtaining individual fungi from the environment: (a) mixtures of microorganisms are plated routinely onto growth media containing mutagenic antibiotics to control overgrowth by contaminants, (b) the microbial mixtures may contain microorganisms capable of producing mutagenic secondary metabolites, and (c) target fungi for isolation may produce “self” mutagens in pure culture. The probability that these compounds could interact with fungi undermines confidence in the preservation process and the potential effects of these biochemical mutagens are considered for the first time on strains held in BRC in this review

Ocean Acidification-Induced Food Quality Deterioration Constrains Trophic Transfer

Our present understanding of ocean acidification (OA) impacts on marine organisms caused by rapidly rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is almost entirely limited to single species responses. OA consequences for food web interactions are, however, still unknown. Indirect OA effects can be expected for consumers by changing the nutritional quality of their prey. We used a laboratory experiment to test potential OA effects on algal fatty acid (FA) composition and resulting copepod growth. We show that elevated CO2 significantly changed the FA concentration and composition of the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, which constrained growth and reproduction of the copepod Acartia tonsa. A significant decline in both total FAs (28.1 to 17.4 fg cell−1) and the ratio of long-chain polyunsaturated to saturated fatty acids (PUFA:SFA) of food algae cultured under elevated (750 µatm) compared to present day (380 µatm) pCO2 was directly translated to copepods. The proportion of total essential FAs declined almost tenfold in copepods and the contribution of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) tripled at high CO2. This rapid and reversible CO2-dependent shift in FA concentration and composition caused a decrease in both copepod somatic growth and egg production from 34 to 5 eggs female−1 day−1. Because the diatom-copepod link supports some of the most productive ecosystems in the world, our study demonstrates that OA can have far-reaching consequences for ocean food webs by changing the nutritional quality of essential macromolecules in primary producers that cascade up the food web

Factors affecting glomerular filtration rate, as measured by iohexol disappearance, in men with or at risk for HIV infection

Objective: Formulae used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) underestimate higher GFRs and have not been well-studied in HIV-infected (HIV(+)) people; we evaluated the relationships of HIV infection and known or potential risk factors for kidney disease with directly measured GFR and the presence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Design: Cross-sectional measurement of iohexol-based GFR (iGFR) in HIV(+) men (n = 455) receiving antiretroviral therapy, and HIV-uninfected (HIV(-)) men (n = 258) in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Methods: iGFR was calculated from disappearance of infused iohexol from plasma. Determinants of GFR and the presence of CKD were compared using iGFR and GFR estimated by the CKD-Epi equation (eGFR). Results: Median iGFR was higher among HIV(+) than HIV(-) men (109 vs. 106 ml/min/1.73 m2, respectively, p = .046), and was 7 ml/min higher than median eGFR. Mean iGFR was lower in men who were older, had chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, or had a history of AIDS. Low iGFR (≤90 ml/min/1.73 m2) was associated with these factors and with black race. Other than age, factors associated with low iGFR were not observed with low eGFR. CKD was more common in HIV(+) than HIV(-) men; predictors of CKD were similar using iGFR and eGFR. Conclusions: iGFR was higher than eGFR in this population of HIV-infected and -uninfected men who have sex with men. Presence of CKD was predicted equally well by iGFR and eGFR, but associations of chronic HCV infection and history of clinically-defined AIDS with mildly decreased GFR were seen only with iGFR. © 2014 Margolick et al

Structural Insights into the Evolution of a Non-Biological Protein: Importance of Surface Residues in Protein Fold Optimization

Phylogenetic profiling of amino acid substitution patterns in proteins has led many to conclude that most structural information is carried by interior core residues that are solvent inaccessible. This conclusion is based on the observation that buried residues generally tolerate only conserved sequence changes, while surface residues allow more diverse chemical substitutions. This notion is now changing as it has become apparent that both core and surface residues play important roles in protein folding and stability. Unfortunately, the ability to identify specific mutations that will lead to enhanced stability remains a challenging problem. Here we discuss two mutations that emerged from an in vitro selection experiment designed to improve the folding stability of a non-biological ATP binding protein. These mutations alter two solvent accessible residues, and dramatically enhance the expression, solubility, thermal stability, and ligand binding affinity of the protein. The significance of both mutations was investigated individually and together, and the X-ray crystal structures of the parent sequence and double mutant protein were solved to a resolution limit of 2.8 and 1.65 Å, respectively. Comparative structural analysis of the evolved protein to proteins found in nature reveals that our non-biological protein evolved certain structural features shared by many thermophilic proteins. This experimental result suggests that protein fold optimization by in vitro selection offers a viable approach to generating stable variants of many naturally occurring proteins whose structures and functions are otherwise difficult to study

Active learning and optimal climate policy

This paper develops a climate-economy model with uncertainty, irreversibility, and active learning. Whereas previous papers assume learning from one observation per period, or experiment with control variables to gain additional information, this paper considers active learning from investment in monitoring, specifically in improved observations of the global mean temperature. We find that the decision maker invests a significant amount of money in climate research, far more than the current level, in order to increase the rate of learning about climate change. This helps the decision maker make improved decisions. The level of uncertainty decreases more rapidly in the active learning model than in the passive learning model with only temperature observations. As the uncertainty about climate change is smaller, active learning reduces the optimal carbon tax. The greater the risk, the larger is the effect of learning. The method proposed here is applicable to any dynamic control problem where the quality of monitoring is a choice variable, for instance, the precision at which we observe GDP, unemployment, or the quality of education

Nutrient Enrichment and Food Web Composition Affect Ecosystem Metabolism in an Experimental Seagrass Habitat

Food web composition and resource levels can influence ecosystem properties such as productivity and elemental cycles. In particular, herbivores occupy a central place in food webs as the species richness and composition of this trophic level may simultaneously influence the transmission of resource and predator effects to higher and lower trophic levels, respectively. Yet, these interactions are poorly understood.Using an experimental seagrass mesocosm system, we factorially manipulated water column nutrient concentrations, food chain length, and diversity of crustacean grazers to address two questions: (1) Does food web composition modulate the effects of nutrient enrichment on plant and grazer biomasses and stoichiometry? (2) Do ecosystem fluxes of dissolved oxygen and nutrients more closely reflect above-ground biomass and community structure or sediment processes? Nutrient enrichment and grazer presence generally had strong effects on biomass accumulation, stoichiometry, and ecosystem fluxes, whereas predator effects were weaker or absent. Nutrient enrichment had little effect on producer biomass or net ecosystem production but strongly increased seagrass nutrient content, ecosystem flux rates, and grazer secondary production, suggesting that enhanced production was efficiently transferred from producers to herbivores. Gross ecosystem production (oxygen evolution) correlated positively with above-ground plant biomass, whereas inorganic nutrient fluxes were unrelated to plant or grazer biomasses, suggesting dominance by sediment microbial processes. Finally, grazer richness significantly stabilized ecosystem processes, as predators decreased ecosystem production and respiration only in the zero- and one- species grazer treatments.Overall, our results indicate that consumer presence and species composition strongly influence ecosystem responses to nutrient enrichment, and that increasing herbivore diversity can stabilize ecosystem flux rates in the face of perturbations