Describing the longitudinal course of major depression using Markov models: Data integration across three national surveys

BACKGROUND: Most epidemiological studies of major depression report period prevalence estimates. These are of limited utility in characterizing the longitudinal epidemiology of this condition. Markov models provide a methodological framework for increasing the utility of epidemiological data. Markov models relating incidence and recovery to major depression prevalence have been described in a series of prior papers. In this paper, the models are extended to describe the longitudinal course of the disorder. METHODS: Data from three national surveys conducted by the Canadian national statistical agency (Statistics Canada) were used in this analysis. These data were integrated using a Markov model. Incidence, recurrence and recovery were represented as weekly transition probabilities. Model parameters were calibrated to the survey estimates. RESULTS: The population was divided into three categories: low, moderate and high recurrence groups. The size of each category was approximated using lifetime data from a study using the WHO Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI). Consistent with previous work, transition probabilities reflecting recovery were high in the initial weeks of the episodes, and declined by a fixed proportion with each passing week. CONCLUSION: Markov models provide a framework for integrating psychiatric epidemiological data. Previous studies have illustrated the utility of Markov models for decomposing prevalence into its various determinants: incidence, recovery and mortality. This study extends the Markov approach by distinguishing several recurrence categories

Protocol for the saMS trial (supportive adjustment for multiple sclerosis): a randomized controlled trial comparing cognitive behavioral therapy to supportive listening for adjustment to multiple sclerosis

BackgroundMultiple Sclerosis (MS) is an incurable, chronic, potentially progressive and unpredictable disease of the central nervous system. The disease produces a range of unpleasant and debilitating symptoms, which can have a profound impact including disrupting activities of daily living, employment, income, relationships, social and leisure activities, and life goals. Adjusting to the illness is therefore particularly challenging. This trial tests the effectiveness of a cognitive behavioural intervention compared to supportive listening to assist adjustment in the early stages of MS.MethodsThis is a two arm randomized multi-centre parallel group controlled trial. 122 consenting participants who meet eligibility criteria will be randomly allocated to receive either Cognitive Behavioral Therapy or Supportive Listening. Eight one hour sessions of therapy (delivered over a period of 10 weeks) will be delivered by general nurses trained in both treatments. Self-report questionnaire data will be collected at baseline (0 weeks), mid-therapy (week 5 of therapy), post-therapy (15 weeks) and at six months (26 weeks) and twelve months (52 weeks) follow-up. Primary outcomes are distress and MS-related social and role impairment at twelve month follow-up. Analysis will also consider predictors and mechanisms of change during therapy. In-depth interviews to examine participants’ experiences of the interventions will be conducted with a purposively sampled sub-set of the trial participants. An economic analysis will also take place. DiscussionThis trial is distinctive in its aims in that it aids adjustment to MS in a broad sense. It is not a treatment specifically for depression. Use of nurses as therapists makes the interventions potentially viable in terms of being rolled out in the NHS. The trial benefits from incorporating patient input in the development and evaluation stages. The trial will provide important information about the efficacy, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of the interventions as well as mechanisms of psychosocial adjustment.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN91377356<br/

Extended [C I] and (CO)-C-13 (5 -\u3e 4) emission in M17SW

We mapped a 13 × 22 pc region in emission from 492 GHz [C I] and, for the first time, 551 GHz 13CO (5 → 4) in the giant molecular cloud M17SW. The morphologies of the [C I] and 13CO emission are strikingly similar. The extent and intensity of the [C I] and 13CO (5 → 4) emission is explained as arising from photodissociation regions on the surfaces of embedded molecular clumps. Modeling of the 13CO (5 → 4) emission in comparison to 13CO (1 → 0) indicates a temperature gradient across the cloud, peaking to at least 63 K near the M17 ionization front and decreasing to at least 20 K at the western edge of the cloud. We see no correlation between gas density and column density. The beam-averaged column density of C I in the core is 1 × 1018 cm-2, and the mean column density ratio N(C I)/N(CO) is about 0.4. The variations of N(C I)/N(CO) with position in M17SW indicate a similar clump size distribution throughout the cloud

A database of chlorophyll a in Australian waters

© The Author(s) 2018. Chlorophyll a is the most commonly used indicator of phytoplankton biomass in the marine environment. It is relatively simple and cost effective to measure when compared to phytoplankton abundance and is thus routinely included in many surveys. Here we collate 173, 333 records of chlorophyll a collected since 1965 from Australian waters gathered from researchers on regular coastal monitoring surveys and ocean voyages into a single repository. This dataset includes the chlorophyll a values as measured from samples analysed using spectrophotometry, fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The Australian Chlorophyll a database is freely available through the Australian Ocean Data Network portal (https://portal.aodn.org.au/). These data can be used in isolation as an index of phytoplankton biomass or in combination with other data to provide insight into water quality, ecosystem state, and relationships with other trophic levels such as zooplankton or fish

A randomised trial into the effect of an isolated hip abductor strengthening programme and a functional motor control programme on knee kinematics and hip muscle strength

Background: Dynamic knee valgus and internal femoral rotation are proposed to be contributory risk factors for patellofemoral pain and anterior cruciate ligament injuries. Multimodal interventions including hip abductor strengthening or functional motor control programmes have a positive impact of pain, however their effect on knee kinematics and muscle strength is less clear. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of isolated hip abductor strengthening and a functional motor control exercise on knee kinematics and hip abductor strength. Methods: This prospective, randomised, repeated measures design included 29 asymptomatic volunteers presenting with increase knee valgus and femoral internal rotation. Participants completed either isolated hip abductor strengthening or a functional motor control exercise for 5 weeks. Knee kinematics were measured using inertial sensors during 2 functional activities and hip abductor strength measured using a load cell during isometric hip abduction. Results: There were no significant differences in dynamic knee valgus and internal rotation following the isolated hip abductor or functional motor control intervention, and no significant differences between the groups for knee angles. Despite this, the actual magnitude of reduction in valgus was 10° and 5° for the functional motor control group and strengthening group respectively. The actual magnitude of reduction in internal rotation was 9° and 18° for the functional motor control group and strengthening group respectively. Therefore there was a tendency towards clinically significant improvements in knee kinematics in both exercise groups. A statistically significant improvement in hip abductor strength was evident for the functional motor control group (27% increase; p = 0.008) and strengthening group (35% increase; p = 0.009) with no significant difference between the groups being identified (p = 0.475). Conclusions: Isolated hip strengthening and functional motor control exercises resulted in non-statistically significant changes in knee kinematics, however there was a clear trend towards clinically meaningful reductions in valgus and internal rotation. Both groups demonstrated similar significant gains in hip abductor strength suggesting\ud either approach could be used to strengthen the hip abductors

Using random forest and decision tree models for a new vehicle prediction approach in computational toxicology

yesDrug vehicles are chemical carriers that provide beneficial aid to the drugs they bear. Taking advantage of their favourable properties can potentially allow the safer use of drugs that are considered highly toxic. A means for vehicle selection without experimental trial would therefore be of benefit in saving time and money for the industry. Although machine learning is increasingly used in predictive toxicology, to our knowledge there is no reported work in using machine learning techniques to model drug-vehicle relationships for vehicle selection to minimise toxicity. In this paper we demonstrate the use of data mining and machine learning techniques to process, extract and build models based on classifiers (decision trees and random forests) that allow us to predict which vehicle would be most suited to reduce a drug’s toxicity. Using data acquired from the National Institute of Health’s (NIH) Developmental Therapeutics Program (DTP) we propose a methodology using an area under a curve (AUC) approach that allows us to distinguish which vehicle provides the best toxicity profile for a drug and build classification models based on this knowledge. Our results show that we can achieve prediction accuracies of 80 % using random forest models whilst the decision tree models produce accuracies in the 70 % region. We consider our methodology widely applicable within the scientific domain and beyond for comprehensively building classification models for the comparison of functional relationships between two variables

Populations of Radial Glial Cells Respond Differently to Reelin and Neuregulin1 in a Ferret Model of Cortical Dysplasia

Radial glial cells play an essential role during corticogenesis through their function as neural precursors and guides of neuronal migration. Both reelin and neuregulin1 (NRG1) maintain the radial glial scaffold; they also induce expression of Brain Lipid Binding Protein (BLBP), a well known marker of radial glia. Although radial glia in normal ferrets express both vimentin and BLBP, this coexpression diverges at P3; vimentin is expressed in the radial glial processes, while BLBP appears in cells detached from the ventricular zone. Our lab developed a model of cortical dysplasia in the ferret, resulting in impaired migration of neurons into the cortical plate and disordered radial glia. This occurs after exposure to the antimitotic methylazoxymethanol (MAM) on the 24th day of development (E24). Ferrets treated with MAM on E24 result in an overall decrease of BLBP expression; radial glia that continue to express BLBP, however, show only mild disruption compared with the strongly disrupted vimentin expressing radial glia. When E24 MAM-treated organotypic slices are exposed to reelin or NRG1, the severely disrupted vimentin+ radial glial processes are repaired but the slightly disordered BLBP+ processes are not. The realignment of vimentin+ processes was linked with an increase of their BLBP expression. BLBP expressing radial glia are distinguished by being both less affected by MAM treatment and by attempts at repair. We further investigated the effects induced by reelin and found that signaling was mediated via VLDLR/Dab1/Pi3K activation while NRG1 signaling was mediated via erbB3/erbB4/Pi3K. We then tested whether radial glial repair correlated with improved neuronal migration. Repairing the radial glial scaffold is not sufficient to restore neuronal migration; although reelin improves migration of neurons toward the cortical plate signaling through ApoER2/Dab1/PI3K activation, NRG1 does not

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Comparison of children's self-reports of depressive symptoms among different family interaction types in northern Taiwan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous research has shown that family interactions are associated with depressive symptoms in children. However, detailed classifications of family interaction types have not been studied thoroughly. This study aims to understand the types of family interactions children experience and to identify the specific types of family interactions that are associated with a higher risk of depressive symptoms in children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data used in the study was collected as part of the Child and Adolescent Behavior in Long term Evolution (CABLE) project in 2003. CABLE is a longitudinal cohort study that commenced in 2001 and collects data annually from children in Taipei city and Hsinchu county in northern Taiwan. The data analyzed in this study was that obtained from the sixth graders (aged 11 to 12 years old) in 2003. Of the 2,449 sixth graders, 51.2% were boys and 48.8% were girls. Factor analysis and cluster analysis were used to investigate the types of family interactions. One way ANOVA was used to establish the relationship between family interaction types and children's self-reports of depressive symptoms.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on the results of factor analysis, the latent factors for family interactions included supporting activities, psychological control, parental discipline, behavioral supervision, and family conflict. After conducting cluster analysis using factor scores, four types of family interactions were revealed: supervised (29.66%), disciplined (13.56%), nurtured (40.96%) and conflict (15.82%). Children from the disciplined or conflict families were more likely to report depressive symptoms. Children from the nurtured families were least likely to report depressive symptoms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Family interactions can be classified into four different types, which are related to children's self-reports of depressive symptoms. The creation of a family interaction environment that is beneficial for children's mental health is an important issue for health education and health promotion professionals.</p

A pilot study evaluating use of a computer-assisted neurorehabilitation platform for upper-extremity stroke assessment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is a need to develop cost-effective, sensitive stroke assessment instruments. One approach is examining kinematic measures derived from goal-directed tasks, which can potentially be sensitive to the subtle changes in the stroke rehabilitation process. This paper presents the findings from a pilot study that uses a computer-assisted neurorehabilitation platform, interfaced with a conventional force-reflecting joystick, to examine the assessment capability of the system by various types of goal-directed tasks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Both stroke subjects with hemiparesis and able-bodied subjects used the force-reflecting joystick to complete a suite of goal-directed tasks under various task settings. Kinematic metrics, developed for specific types of goal-directed tasks, were used to assess various aspects of upper-extremity motor performance across subjects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A number of metrics based on kinematic performance were able to differentiate subjects with different impairment levels, with metrics associated with accuracy, steadiness and speed consistency showing the best capability. Significant differences were also shown on these metrics between various force field settings.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results support the potential of using UniTherapy software with a conventional joystick system as an upper-extremity assessment instrument. We demonstrated the ability of using various types of goal-directed tasks to distinguish between subjects with different impairment levels. In addition, we were able to show that different force fields have a significant effect on the performance across subjects with different impairment levels in the trajectory tracking task. These results provide motivation for studies with a larger sample size that can more completely span the impairment space, and can use insights presented here to refine considerations of various task settings so as to generalize and extend our conclusions.</p