Predicting vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 over time and against variants: a meta-analysis

Vaccine protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to be strongly correlated with neutralising antibody titres; however, this has not yet been demonstrated for severe COVID-19. To explore whether this relationship also holds for severe COVID-19, we performed a systematic search for studies reporting on protection against different SARS-CoV-2 clinical endpoints and extracted data from 15 studies. Since matched neutralising antibody titres were not available, we used the vaccine regimen, time since vaccination and variant of concern to predict corresponding neutralising antibody titres. We then compared the observed vaccine effectiveness reported in these studies to the protection predicted by a previously published model of the relationship between neutralising antibody titre and vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. We find that predicted neutralising antibody titres are strongly correlated with observed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic (Spearman ρ = 0.95, p < 0.001) and severe (Spearman ρ = 0.72, p < 0.001 for both) COVID-19 and that the loss of neutralising antibodies over time and to new variants are strongly predictive of observed vaccine protection against severe COVID-19

Lay perceptions of predictive testing for diabetes based on DNA test results versus family history assessment: a focus group study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study assessed lay perceptions of issues related to predictive genetic testing for multifactorial diseases. These perceived issues may differ from the "classic" issues, e.g. autonomy, discrimination, and psychological harm that are considered important in predictive testing for monogenic disorders. In this study, type 2 diabetes was used as an example, and perceptions with regard to predictive testing based on DNA test results and family history assessment were compared.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Eight focus group interviews were held with 45 individuals aged 35-70 years with (n = 3) and without (n = 1) a family history of diabetes, mixed groups of these two (n = 2), and diabetes patients (n = 2). All interviews were transcribed and analysed using Atlas-ti.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most participants believed in the ability of a predictive test to identify people at risk for diabetes and to motivate preventive behaviour. Different reasons underlying motivation were considered when comparing DNA test results and a family history risk assessment. A perceived drawback of DNA testing was that diabetes was considered not severe enough for this type of risk assessment. In addition, diabetes family history assessment was not considered useful by some participants, since there are also other risk factors involved, not everyone has a diabetes family history or knows their family history, and it might have a negative influence on family relations. Respect for autonomy of individuals was emphasized more with regard to DNA testing than family history assessment. Other issues such as psychological harm, discrimination, and privacy were only briefly mentioned for both tests.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results suggest that most participants believe a predictive genetic test could be used in the prevention of multifactorial disorders, such as diabetes, but indicate points to consider before both these tests are applied. These considerations differ with regard to the method of assessment (DNA test or obtaining family history) and also differ from monogenic disorders.</p

The Surgical Infection Society revised guidelines on the management of intra-abdominal infection

Background: Previous evidence-based guidelines on the management of intra-abdominal infection (IAI) were published by the Surgical Infection Society (SIS) in 1992, 2002, and 2010. At the time the most recent guideline was released, the plan was to update the guideline every five years to ensure the timeliness and appropriateness of the recommendations. Methods: Based on the previous guidelines, the task force outlined a number of topics related to the treatment of patients with IAI and then developed key questions on these various topics. All questions were approached using general and specific literature searches, focusing on articles and other information published since 2008. These publications and additional materials published before 2008 were reviewed by the task force as a whole or by individual subgroups as to relevance to individual questions. Recommendations were developed by a process of iterative consensus, with all task force members voting to accept or reject each recommendation. Grading was based on the GRADE (Grades of Recommendation Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) system; the quality of the evidence was graded as high, moderate, or weak, and the strength of the recommendation was graded as strong or weak. Review of the document was performed by members of the SIS who were not on the task force. After responses were made to all critiques, the document was approved as an official guideline of the SIS by the Executive Council. Results: This guideline summarizes the current recommendations developed by the task force on the treatment of patients who have IAI. Evidence-based recommendations have been made regarding risk assessment in individual patients; source control; the timing, selection, and duration of antimicrobial therapy; and suggested approaches to patients who fail initial therapy. Additional recommendations related to the treatment of pediatric patients with IAI have been included. Summary: The current recommendations of the SIS regarding the treatment of patients with IAI are provided in this guideline

Malaria-related mortality based on verbal autopsy in an area of low endemicity in a predominantly rural population in Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although malaria is one of the most important causes of death in Ethiopia, measuring the magnitude of malaria-attributed deaths at community level poses a considerable difficulty. Nevertheless, despite its low sensitivity and specificity, verbal autopsy (VA) has been the most important technique to determine malaria-specific cause of death for community-based studies. The present study was undertaken to assess the magnitude of malaria mortality in a predominantly rural population of Ethiopia using VA technique at Butajira Rural Health Programme (BRHP) Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A verbal autopsy was carried out for a year from August 2003 to July 2004 for all deaths identified at BRPH-DSS. Two trained physicians independently reviewed each VA questionnaire and indicated the most likely causes of death. Finally, all malaria related deaths were identified and used for analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A verbal autopsy study was successfully conducted in 325 deaths, of which 42 (13%) were attributed to malaria. The majority of malaria deaths (47.6%) were from the rural lowlands compared to those that occurred in the rural highlands (31%) and urban (21.4%) areas. The proportional mortality attributable to malaria was not statistically significant among the specific age groups and ecological zones. Mortality from malaria was reckoned to be seasonal; 57% occurred during a three-month period at the end of the rainy season between September and November. About 71% of the deceased received some form of treatment before death, while 12 (28.6%) of those who died neither sought care from a traditional healer nor were taken to a conventional health facility before death. Of those who sought treatment, 53.3% were first taken to a private clinic, 40% sought care from public health facilities, and the remaining two (6.7%) received traditional medicine. Only 11.9% of the total malaria-related deaths received some sort of treatment within 24h after the onset of illness.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study suggest that malaria plays a considerable role as a cause of death in the study area. Further data on malaria mortality with a relatively large sample size for at least two years will be needed to substantially describe the burden of malaria mortality in the study area.</p

Silent cerebral infarct after cardiac catheterization as detected by diffusion weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging: a randomized comparison of radial and femoral arterial approaches

Background and objective: Cerebral microembolism detected by transcranial Doppler (TCD) occurs systematically during cardiac catheterization, but its clinical relevance, remains unknown. Studies suggest that asymptomatic embolic cerebral infarction detectable by diffusion-weighted (DW) MRI might exist after percutaneous cardiac interventions with a frequency as high as 15 to 22% of cases. We have set up, for the first time, a prospective multicenter trial to assess the rate of silent cerebral infarction after cardiac catheterization and to compare the impact of the arterial access site, comparing radial and femoral access, on this phenomenon. Study design: This prospective study will be performed in patients with severe aortic valve stenosis. To assess the occurrence of cerebral infarction, all patients will undergo cerebral DW-MRI and neurological assessment within 24 hours before, and 48 hours after cardiac catheterization and retrograde catheterization of the aortic valve. Randomization for the access site will be performed before coronary angiography. A subgroup will be monitored by transcranial power M-mode Doppler during cardiac catheterization to observe cerebral blood flow and track emboli. Neuropsychological tests will also be recorded in a subgroup of patients before and after the interventional procedures to assess the impact of silent brain injury on potential cognitive decline. The primary end-point of the study is a direct comparison of ischemic cerebral lesions as detected by serial cerebral DW-MRI between patients explored by radial access and patients explored by femoral access. Secondary end-points include comparison of neuropsychological test performance and number of microembolism signals observed in the two groups. Implications: Using serial DW-MRI, silent cerebral infarction rate will be defined and the potential influence of vascular access site will be evaluated. Silent cerebral infarction might be a major concern during cardiac catheterization and its potential relationship to cognitive decline needs to be assessed. Study registration: The SCIPION study is registered through National Institutes of Health-sponsored clinical trials registry and has been assigned the Identifier: NCT 00329979

CD24 Expression is an Independent Prognostic Marker in Cholangiocarcinoma

CD24 has been described as an adverse prognostic marker in several malignancies. This study evaluates CD24 expression in cholangiocarcinoma and correlates the findings with clinicopathologic data and patient survival. Between 1996 and 2002, 22 consecutive patients with cholangiocarcinoma were treated at our institution. Demographic data, SEER stage, pathologic data, treatment, expression of CD24, mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK), phosphorylated MAPK, and survival were analyzed. The majority of the tumors demonstrated CD24 (81.8%) and p-MAPK (87%) expression. A negative association was noted between the expression of CD24 and p-MAPK. Median survival for patients with low expression of CD24 was 36 months and high expression was 8 months. Median survival for patients who received chemotherapy with low CD24 expression was 163 months, and for seven patients with high CD24 expression, it was 17 months (p = 0.04). With the addition of radiation therapy, median survival for patients with low expression of CD24 was 52 months and high expression was 17 months (p = 0.08). On multivariate analysis, the use of chemotherapy (p = 0.0014, hazard ratio 0.069) and the CD24 overexpression (p = 0.02, hazard ratio 7.528) were predictive of survival. CD24 is commonly expressed in cholangiocarcinoma, and overexpression is predictive of poor survival and possibly of lack of response to chemotherapy and radiation therapy. These findings may improve selection of patients for the appropriate treatment modality and the development of CD24-targeted therapy

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs)

Brane-World Gravity

The observable universe could be a 1+3-surface (the "brane") embedded in a 1+3+\textit{d}-dimensional spacetime (the "bulk"), with Standard Model particles and fields trapped on the brane while gravity is free to access the bulk. At least one of the \textit{d} extra spatial dimensions could be very large relative to the Planck scale, which lowers the fundamental gravity scale, possibly even down to the electroweak ($\sim$ TeV) level. This revolutionary picture arises in the framework of recent developments in M theory. The 1+10-dimensional M theory encompasses the known 1+9-dimensional superstring theories, and is widely considered to be a promising potential route to quantum gravity. At low energies, gravity is localized at the brane and general relativity is recovered, but at high energies gravity "leaks" into the bulk, behaving in a truly higher-dimensional way. This introduces significant changes to gravitational dynamics and perturbations, with interesting and potentially testable implications for high-energy astrophysics, black holes, and cosmology. Brane-world models offer a phenomenological way to test some of the novel predictions and corrections to general relativity that are implied by M theory. This review analyzes the geometry, dynamics and perturbations of simple brane-world models for cosmology and astrophysics, mainly focusing on warped 5-dimensional brane-worlds based on the Randall--Sundrum models. We also cover the simplest brane-world models in which 4-dimensional gravity on the brane is modified at \emph{low} energies -- the 5-dimensional Dvali--Gabadadze--Porrati models. Then we discuss co-dimension two branes in 6-dimensional models.Comment: A major update of Living Reviews in Relativity 7:7 (2004) "Brane-World Gravity", 119 pages, 28 figures, the update contains new material on RS perturbations, including full numerical solutions of gravitational waves and scalar perturbations, on DGP models, and also on 6D models. A published version in Living Reviews in Relativit

Resequencing of genes for transforming growth factor β1 (TGFB1) type 1 and 2 receptors (TGFBR1, TGFBR2), and association analysis of variants with diabetic nephropathy

BACKGROUND: Diabetic nephropathy is the leading cause of end stage renal failure in the western world. There is substantial epidemiological evidence supporting a genetic predisposition to diabetic nephropathy, however the exact molecular mechanisms remain unknown. Transforming growth factor (TGFβ1) is a crucial mediator in the pathogenesis of diabetic nephropathy. METHODS: We investigated the role of five known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the TGFB1 gene for their association with diabetic nephropathy in an Irish, type 1 diabetic case (n = 272) control (n = 367) collection. The activity of TGFβ1 is facilitated by the action of type 1 and type 2 receptors, with both receptor genes (TGFBR1 and TGFBR2) shown to be upregulated in diabetic kidney disease. We therefore screened TGFBR1 and TGFBR2 genes for genomic variants using WAVE™ (dHPLC) technology and confirmed variants by direct capillary sequencing. Allele frequencies were determined in forty-eight healthy individuals. Data for all SNPs was assessed for Hardy Weinberg equilibrium, with genotypes and allele frequencies compared using the χ(2 )test for contingency tables. Patterns of linkage disequilibrium were established and common haplotypes estimated. RESULTS: Fifteen variants were identified in these genes, seven of which are novel, and putatively functional SNPs were subsequently genotyped using TaqMan™, Invader™ or Pyrosequencing(® )technology. No significant differences (p > 0.1) were found in genotype or allele distributions between cases and controls for any of the SNPs assessed. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest common variants in TGFB1, TGFBR1 and TGFBR2 genes do not strongly influence genetic susceptibility to diabetic nephropathy in an Irish Caucasian population

Chapter 11: Challenges in and Principles for Conducting Systematic Reviews of Genetic Tests used as Predictive Indicators

In this paper, we discuss common challenges in and principles for conducting systematic reviews of genetic tests. The types of genetic tests discussed are those used to 1). determine risk or susceptibility in asymptomatic individuals; 2). reveal prognostic information to guide clinical management in those with a condition; or 3). predict response to treatments or environmental factors. This paper is not intended to provide comprehensive guidance on evaluating all genetic tests. Rather, it focuses on issues that have been of particular concern to analysts and stakeholders and on areas that are of particular relevance for the evaluation of studies of genetic tests. The key points include:The general principles that apply in evaluating genetic tests are similar to those for other prognostic or predictive tests, but there are differences in how the principles need to be applied or the degree to which certain issues are relevant.A clear definition of the clinical scenario and an analytic framework is important when evaluating any test, including genetic tests.Organizing frameworks and analytic frameworks are useful constructs for approaching the evaluation of genetic tests.In constructing an analytic framework for evaluating a genetic test, analysts should consider preanalytic, analytic, and postanalytic factors; such factors are useful when assessing analytic validity.Predictive genetic tests are generally characterized by a delayed time between testing and clinically important events.Finding published information on the analytic validity of some genetic tests may be difficult. Web sites (FDA or diagnostic companies) and gray literature may be important sources.In situations where clinical factors associated with risk are well characterized, comparative effectiveness reviews should assess the added value of using genetic testing along with known factors compared with using the known factors alone.For genome-wide association studies, reviewers should determine whether the association has been validated in multiple studies to minimize both potential confounding and publication bias. In addition, reviewers should note whether appropriate adjustments for multiple comparisons were used