Fitting models of multiple hypotheses to partial population data: investigating the causes of cycles in red grouse

There are two postulated causes for the observed periodic fluctuations (cycles) in red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). The first involves interaction with the parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis. The second invokes delayed regulation through the effect of male aggressiveness on territoriality. Empirical evidence exists to support both hypotheses, and each hypothesis has been modeled deterministically. However, little effort has gone into looking at the combined effects of the two mechanisms or formally fitting the corresponding models to field data. Here we present a model for red grouse dynamics that includes both parasites and territoriality. To explore the single and combined hypotheses, we specify three versions of this model and fit them to data using Bayesian state‐space modeling, a method that allows statistical inference to be performed on mechanistic models such as ours. Output from the three models is then examined to determine their goodness of fit and the biological plausibility of the parameter values required by each to fit the population data. While all three models are capable of emulating the observed cyclic dynamics, only the model including both aggression and parasites does so under consistently realistic parameter values, providing theoretical support for the idea that both mechanisms shape red grouse cycles

Effect of paramagnetic fluctuations on a Fermi-surface topological transition in two dimensions

We study the Fermi-surface topological transition of the pocket-opening type in a two-dimensional Fermi liquid. We find that the paramagnetic fluctuations in an interacting Fermi liquid typically drive the transition first order at zero temperature. We first gain insight from a calculation using second-order perturbation theory in the self-energy. This is valid for weak interaction and far from instabilities. We then extend the results to stronger interaction, using the self-consistent fluctuation approximation. Experimental signatures are given in light of our results

The Maximal Denumerant of a Numerical Semigroup

Given a numerical semigroup S = and n in S, we consider the factorization n = c_0 a_0 + c_1 a_1 + ... + c_t a_t where c_i >= 0. Such a factorization is maximal if c_0 + c_1 + ... + c_t is a maximum over all such factorizations of n. We provide an algorithm for computing the maximum number of maximal factorizations possible for an element in S, which is called the maximal denumerant of S. We also consider various cases that have connections to the Cohen-Macualay and Gorenstein properties of associated graded rings for which this algorithm simplifies.Comment: 13 Page

Three-Neutrino Mixing and Combined Vacuum Oscillations and MSW Transitions of Solar Neutrinos

Assuming three flavour neutrino mixing takes place in vacuum, we investigate the possibility that the solar nu_e take part in MSW transitions in the Sun due to Delta m^2_{31} from 10^{-7} eV^2 to 10^{-4} eV^2, followed by long wave length vacuum oscillations on the way to the Earth, triggered by Delta m^2_{21} (or Delta m^2_{32}) from 10^{-12} eV^2 to 10^{-10} eV^2, Delta m^2_{31} and Delta m^2_{21} (Delta m^2_{32}) being the corresponding neutrino mass squared differences. The solar nu_e survival probability is shown to be described in this case by a simple analytic expression. Depending on whether the vacuum oscillations are due to Delta m^2_{21} or Delta m^2_{32} there are two very different types of interplay between the MSW transitions and the vacuum oscillations of the solar nu_e. Performing an analysis of the most recently published solar neutrino data we have found several qualitatively new solutions of the solar neutrino problem of the hybrid MSW transitions + vacuum oscillations type. The solutions differ in the way the pp, 7Be and 8B neutrino fluxes are affected by the transitions in the Sun and the oscillations in vacuum. The specific features of the new solutions are discussed.Comment: 37 pages Latex, 16 Postscript Figure

Universal Magnetic Fluctuations with a Field Induced Length Scale

We calculate the probability density function for the order parameter fluctuations in the low temperature phase of the 2D-XY model of magnetism near the line of critical points. A finite correlation length, \xi, is introduced with a small magnetic field, h, and an accurate expression for \xi(h) is developed by treating non-linear contributions to the field energy using a Hartree approximation. We find analytically a series of universal non-Gaussian distributions with a finite size scaling form and present a Gumbel-like function that gives the PDF to an excellent approximation. We propose the Gumbel exponent, a(h), as an indirect measure of the length scale of correlations in a wide range of complex systems.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, 1 table. To appear in Phys. Rev.

Elevated interferon-stimulated gene transcription in peripheral blood mononuclear cells occurs in patients infected with genotype 1 but not genotype 3 hepatitis C virus

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) can be classified into seven distinct genotypes that are associated with differing pathologies and respond differently to antiviral therapy. In the UK, genotype 1 and 3 are present in approximately equal proportions. Chronic infection with HCV genotype 3 is associated with increased liver steatosis and reduced peripheral total cholesterol levels, which potentially influences peripheral immune responses. To understand these differences, we investigated host gene transcription in peripheral blood mononuclear cells by microarray and quantitative PCR in patients with genotype 1 (n = 22) or genotype 3 infection (n = 22) and matched healthy controls (n = 15). Enrichment of genes involved in immune response and inflammatory pathways were present in patients infected with HCV genotype 1; however, no differences in genes involved in lipid or cholesterol metabolism were detected. This genotype-specific induction of genes is unrelated to IL28B genotype or previous treatment failure. Our data support the hypothesis that genotype 1 infection drives a skewed Type I interferon response and provides a foundation for future investigations into the host–pathogen interactions that underlie the genotype-specific clinical outcomes of chronic HCV infection

Finite size scaling in the 2D XY-model and generalized universality

In recent works (BHP), a generalized universality has been proposed, linking phenomena as dissimilar as 2D magnetism and turbulence. To test these ideas, we performed a MC study of the 2D XY-model. We found that the shape of the probability distribution function for the magnetization M is non Gaussian and independent of the system size --in the range of the lattice sizes studied-- below the Kosterlitz-Thoules temperature. However, the shape of these distributions does depend on the temperature, contrarily to the BHP's claim. This behavior is successfully explained by using an extended finite-size scaling analysis and the existence of bounds for M.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. Details of changes: 1. We emphasized in the abstract the range of validity of our results. 2. In the last paragraph the temperature dependence of the PDF was slightly re-formulate

Strain distributionand electronic property modifications in Si/Ge axial nanowires hetrostructures

Molecular dynamics simulations were carried out for Si/Ge axial nanowire heterostructures using modified effective atom method (MEAM) potentials. A Si–Ge MEAM interatomic cross potential was developed based on available experimental data and was used for these studies. The atomic distortions and strain distributions near the Si/Ge interfaces are predicted for nanowires with their axes oriented along the [111] direction. The cases of 10 and 25 nm diameter Si/Ge biwires and of 25 nm diameter Si/Ge/Si axial heterostructures with the Ge disk 1 nm thick were studied. Substantial distortions in the height of the atoms adjacent to the interface were found for the biwires but not for the Ge disks. Strains as high as 3.5% were found for the Ge disk and values of 2%–2.5% were found at the Si and Ge interfacial layers in the biwires. Deformation potential theory was used to estimate the influence of the strains on the band gap, and reductions in band gap to as small as 40% of bulk values are predicted for the Ge disks. The localized regions of increased strain and resulting energy minima were also found within the Si/Ge biwire interfaces with the larger effects on the Ge side of the interface. The regions of strain maxima near and within the interfaces are anticipated to be useful for tailoring band gaps and producing quantum confinement of carriers. These results suggest that nanowire heterostructures provide greater design flexibility in band structure modification than is possible with planar layer growth

Ground state properties and excitation spectra of non-Galilean invariant interacting Bose systems

We study the ground state properties and the excitation spectrum of bosons which, in addition to a short-range repulsive two body potential, interact through the exchange of some dispersionless bosonic modes. The latter induces a time dependent (retarded) boson-boson interaction which is attractive in the static limit. Moreover the coupling with dispersionless modes introduces a reference frame for the moving boson system and hence breaks the Galilean invariance of this system. The ground state of such a system is depleted {\it linearly} in the boson density due to the zero point fluctuations driven by the retarded part of the interaction. Both quasiparticle (microscopic) and compressional (macroscopic) sound velocities of the system are studied. The microscopic sound velocity is calculated up the second order in the effective two body interaction in a perturbative treatment, similar to that of Beliaev for the dilute weakly interacting Bose gas. The hydrodynamic equations are used to obtain the macroscopic sound velocity. We show that these velocities are identical within our perturbative approach. We present analytical results for them in terms of two dimensional parameters -- an effective interaction strength and an adiabaticity parameter -- which characterize the system. We find that due the presence of several competing effects, which determine the speed of the sound of the system, three qualitatively different regimes can be in principle realized in the parameter space and discuss them on physical grounds.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev.