A benefit–cost analysis of different response scenarios to COVID ‐19: A case study

Background This paper compares the direct benefits to the State of Western Australia from employing a “suppression” policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic rather than a “herd immunity” approach. Methods An S-I-R (susceptible-infectious-resolved) model is used to estimate the likely benefits of a suppression COVID-19 response compared to a herd immunity alternative. Direct impacts of the virus are calculated on the basis of sick leave, hospitalizations, and fatalities, while indirect impacts related to response actions are excluded. Results Preliminary modeling indicates that approximately 1700 vulnerable person deaths are likely to have been prevented over 1 year from adopting a suppression response rather than a herd immunity response, and approximately 4500 hospitalizations. These benefits are valued at around AUD4.7 billion. If a do nothing policy had been adopted, the number of people in need of hospitalization is likely to have overwhelmed the hospital system within 50 days of the virus being introduced. Maximum hospital capacity is unlikely to be reached in either a suppression policy or a herd immunity policy. Conclusion Using early international estimates to represent the negative impact each type of policy response is likely to have on gross state product, results suggest the benefit–cost ratio for the suppression policy is slightly higher than that of the herd immunity policy, but both benefit–cost ratios are less than one

SuperIdentity: fusion of identity across real and cyber domains

Under both benign and malign circumstances, people now manage a spectrum of identities across both real-world and cyber domains. Our belief, however, is that all these instances ultimately track back for an individual to reflect a single ‘SuperIdentity’. This paper outlines the assumptions underpinning the SuperIdentity Project, describing the innovative use of data fusion to incorporate novel real-world and cyber cues into a rich framework appropriate for modern identity. The proposed combinatorial model will support a robust identification or authentication decision, with confidence indexed both by the level of trust in data provenance, and the diagnosticity of the identity factors being used. Additionally, the exploration of correlations between factors may underpin the more intelligent use of identity information so that known information may be used to predict previously hidden information. With modern living supporting the ‘distribution of identity’ across real and cyber domains, and with criminal elements operating in increasingly sophisticated ways in the hinterland between the two, this approach is suggested as a way forwards, and is discussed in terms of its impact on privacy, security, and the detection of threa

Larval mortality rates and population dynamics of Lesser Sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) in the northwestern North Sea

Intense fishing of a stock of sandeels (Ammodytes marinus) on the sand banks off the Firth of Forth, northeast Scotland, during the 1990s led to a decline in catch per unit effort to uneconomic levels and collateral failures of piscivorous seabird breeding success at nearby colonies. A prohibition on fishing in 1999 was followed by a short-term recovery of stock biomass, but then a sustained decline to very low levels of abundance. Demographic survey data show that despite the decline in stock, recruit abundance was maintained implying an increasing larval survival rate, and that the stock decline was not due to recruitment failure. To verify this hypothesis we analysed a 10-year long data set of weekly catches of sandeel larvae at a nearby plankton monitoring site to determine the patterns of larval mortality and dispersal. We found that the loss rate of larvae up to 20 d age decreased over time, corresponding with the trend in survival rate implied by the stock demography data. The pattern of loss rate in relation to hatchling abundance implied that mortality may have been density dependent. Our study rules out increased larval mortality as the primary cause of decline in the sandeel stock

The transitional gap transient AT 2018hso: new insights into the luminous red nova phenomenon

Context. The absolute magnitudes of luminous red novae (LRNe) are intermediate between those of novae and supernovae (SNe), and show a relatively homogeneous spectro-photometric evolution. Although they were thought to derive from core instabilities in single stars, there is growing support for the idea that they are triggered by binary interaction that possibly ends with the merging of the two stars. Aims. AT 2018hso is a new transient showing transitional properties between those of LRNe and the class of intermediate-luminosity red transients (ILRTs) similar to SN 2008S. Through the detailed analysis of the observed parameters, our study supports that it actually belongs to the LRN class and was likely produced by the coalescence of two massive stars. Methods. We obtained ten months of optical and near-infrared photometric monitoring, and 11 epochs of low-resolution optical spectroscopy of AT 2018hso. We compared its observed properties with those of other ILRTs and LRNe. We also inspected the archival Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images obtained about 15 years ago to constrain the progenitor properties. Results. The light curves of AT 2018hso show a first sharp peak (reddening-corrected M-r = -13.93 mag), followed by a broader and shallower second peak that resembles a plateau in the optical bands. The spectra dramatically change with time. Early-time spectra show prominent Balmer emission lines and a weak [Ca II] doublet, which is usually observed in ILRTs. However, the strong decrease in the continuum temperature, the appearance of narrow metal absorption lines, the great change in the H alpha strength and profile, and the emergence of molecular bands support an LRN classification. The possible detection of a M-I similar to -8 mag source at the position of AT 2018hso in HST archive images is consistent with expectations for a pre-merger massive binary, similar to the precursor of the 2015 LRN in M101. Conclusions. We provide reasonable arguments to support an LRN classification for AT 2018hso. This study reveals growing heterogeneity in the observables of LRNe than has been thought previously, which is a challenge for distinguishing between LRNe and ILRTs. This suggests that the entire evolution of gap transients needs to be monitored to avoid misclassifications

EFFECTS OF CHANGE IN BODY POSTURE ON PLASMA AND SERUM ELECTROLYTES IN NORMAL SUBJECTS AND IN PRIMARY ALDOSTERONISM

We observed that change in body posture from the supine to the erect position in normal volunteers was associated with a rise in circulating potassium and a fall in sodium concentrations, irrespective of whether the electrolytes were measured in serum or plasma, or whether head-up tilt or ambulation was used. In patients with primary aldosteronism, the fall in serum sodium and rise in serum potassium with ambulation tended to obscure the characteristic electrolyte abnormalities of that syndrome. These changes in potassium and sodium could contribute to the rise in aldosterone secretion on orthostasis. The body posture of patients should be considered in the interpretation of plasma and serum electrolyte levels.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75439/1/j.1365-2265.1981.tb02972.x.pd

The capabilities approach and critical social policy: lessons from the majority world?

The capabilities approach (CA) most closely associated with the thinner and thicker versions of Sen and Nussbaum has the potential to provide a paradigm shift for critical social policy, encompassing but also transcending some of the limitations associated with the Marshallian social citizenship approach. The article argues, however, that it cannot simply be imported from the majority world, rather there is a need to bear in mind the critical literature that developed around it. This is generally discussed and then critically applied to case studies of CA in the developed capitalist world, particularly the Equalities Review conducted for the Equality and Human Rights Commission

Mothers behaving badly: chaotic hedonism and the crisis of neoliberal social reproduction

This article focuses on the significance of the plethora of representations of mothers ‘behaving badly’ in contemporary anglophone media texts, including the films Bad Moms, Fun Mom Dinner and Bad Mom’s Christmas, the book and online cartoons Hurrah for Gin and the recent TV comedy dramas Motherland, The Let Down and Catastrophe. All these media texts include representations of, first, mothers in the midst of highly chaotic everyday spaces where any smooth routine of domesticity is conspicuous by its absence; and second, mothers behaving hedonistically, usually through drinking and partying, behaviour that is more conventionally associated with men or women without children. After identifying the social type of the mother behaving badly (MBB), the article locates and analyses it in relation to several different social and cultural contexts. These contexts are: a neoliberal crisis in social reproduction marked by inequality and overwork; the continual if contested role of women as ‘foundation parents’; and the negotiation of longer-term discourses of female hedonism. The title gestures towards a popular British sitcom of the 1990s, Men Behaving Badly, which popularized the idea of the ‘new lad’; and this article suggests that the new lad’s counterpart, the ladette, is mutating into the mother behaving badly, or the ‘lad mom’. Asking what work this figure does now, in a later neoliberal context, it argues that the mother behaving badly is simultaneously indicative of a widening and liberating range of maternal subject positions and symptomatic of a profound contemporary crisis in social reproduction. By focusing on the classed and racialised dynamics of the MBB – by examining who exactly is permitted to be hedonistic, and how – and by considering the MBB’s limited and partial imagining of progressive social change, the article concludes by emphasizing the urgency of creating more connections between such discourses and ‘parents behaving politically’

On the Progenitors of Core-Collapse Supernovae

Theory holds that a star born with an initial mass between about 8 and 140 times the mass of the Sun will end its life through the catastrophic gravitational collapse of its iron core to a neutron star or black hole. This core collapse process is thought to usually be accompanied by the ejection of the star's envelope as a supernova. This established theory is now being tested observationally, with over three dozen core-collapse supernovae having had the properties of their progenitor stars directly measured through the examination of high-resolution images taken prior to the explosion. Here I review what has been learned from these studies and briefly examine the potential impact on stellar evolution theory, the existence of "failed supernovae", and our understanding of the core-collapse explosion mechanism.Comment: 7 Pages, invited review accepted for publication by Astrophysics and Space Science (special HEDLA 2010 issue

A population of highly energetic transient events in the centres of active galaxies

Recent all-sky surveys have led to the discovery of new types of transients. These include stars disrupted by the central supermassive black hole, and supernovae that are 10–100 times more energetic than typical ones. However, the nature of even more energetic transients that apparently occur in the innermost regions of their host galaxies is hotly debated1,2,3. Here we report the discovery of the most energetic of these to date: PS1-10adi, with a total radiated energy of ~2.3 × 1052 erg. The slow evolution of its light curve and persistently narrow spectral lines over ∼ 3 yr are inconsistent with known types of recurring black hole variability. The observed properties imply powering by shock interaction between expanding material and large quantities of surrounding dense matter. Plausible sources of this expanding material are a star that has been tidally disrupted by the central black hole, or a supernova. Both could satisfy the energy budget. For the former, we would be forced to invoke a new and hitherto unseen variant of a tidally disrupted star, while a supernova origin relies principally on environmental effects resulting from its nuclear location. Remarkably, we also discover that PS1-10adi is not an isolated case. We therefore surmise that this new population of transients has previously been overlooked due to incorrect association with underlying central black hole activity