Using Non-Parametric Tests to Evaluate Traffic Forecasting Performance.

This paper proposes the use of a number of nonparametric comparison methods for evaluating traffic flow forecasting techniques. The advantage to these methods is that they are free of any distributional assumptions and can be legitimately used on small datasets. To demonstrate the applicability of these tests, a number of models for the forecasting of traffic flows are developed. The one-step-ahead forecasts produced are then assessed using nonparametric methods. Consideration is given as to whether a method is universally good or good at reproducing a particular aspect of the original series. That choice will be dictated, to a degree, by the user’s purpose for assessing traffic flow

Temperature dependent stiffness and visco-elastic behaviour of lipid coated microbubbles using atomic force microscopy.

yesThe compression stiffness of a phospholipid microbubble was determined using force-spectroscopy as a function of temperature. The stiffness was found to decrease by approximately a factor of three from 0.08 N m 1, at 10 C, down to 0.03 N m 1 at 37 C. This temperature dependence indicates that the surface tension of lipid coating is the dominant contribution to the microbubble stiffness. The timedependent material properties, e.g. creep, increased non-linearly with temperature, showing a factor of two increase in creep-displacement, from 24 nm, at 10 C, to 50 nm, at 37 C. The standard linear solid model was used to extract the visco-elastic parameters and their determination at different temperatures allowed the first determination of the activation energy for creep, for a microbubble, to be determined.EPSR

Bubbles on Manifolds with a U(1) Isometry

We investigate the construction of five-dimensional, three-charge supergravity solutions that only have a rotational U(1) isometry. We show that such solutions can be obtained as warped compactifications with a singular ambi-polar hyper-Kahler base space and singular warp factors. We show that the complete solution is regular around the critical surface of the ambi-polar base. We illustrate this by presenting the explicit form of the most general supersymmetric solutions that can be obtained from an Atiyah-Hitchin base space and its ambi-polar generalizations. We make a parallel analysis using an ambi-polar generalization of the Eguchi-Hanson base space metric. We also show how the bubbling procedure applied to the ambi-polar Eguchi-Hanson metric can convert it to a global AdS_2xS^3 compactification.Comment: 33 pages, 5 figures, LaTeX; references adde

Effect of welding energy on microstructure and strength of ultrasonic spot welded dissimilar joints of aluminum to steel sheets

Two dissimilar ultrasonic spot welded joints of aluminum to commercial steel sheets at different levels of welding energy were investigated. The tensile lap shear tests were conducted to evaluate the failure strength in relation to microstructural changes. The main intermetallics at the weld interface in both joints was θ (FeAl3), along with ɳ (Fe2Al5) phase in Al-to-AISI 304 stainless steel joint and Fe3Al phase in Al-to-ASTM A36 steel joint, respectively. The welding strength of Al-to-AISI 304 stainless steel weld samples was slightly higher than Al-to-ASTM A36 steel weld samples, whereas the fracture energies of Al-to-AISI 304 stainless steel weld samples were significantly higher as compared with Al-to-ASTM A36 steel weld samples. The welding strength of both Al-to-Steel welds were higher than other reported dissimilar USW joints in literature. The fracture surfaces of both weld joints exhibits the growth of IMC layer with increasing welding energy or time, whose inherent brittleness compromises the integrity of joints. In both cases, the lap shear tensile fracture occurred from the Al/Fe interface at lower energy inputs and the failure mode at higher welding energy inputs became the “transverse through-thickness crack growth” at the edge of the nugget zone on the softer Al side

Microstructure, tensile and fatigue properties of ultrasonic spot welded aluminum to galvanized high-strength-low-alloy and low-carbon steel sheets

The microstructure evolution, tensile lap shear strength and fatigue properties of dissimilar ultrasonic spot welded (USWed) joints of aluminum to two commercial steel sheets at different welding energies were investigated. The main intermetallics at the weld interface were θ (FeAl3) in both joints along with eutectic Al-Zn in Al-to-galvanized high-strength-low-alloy (HSLA) steel joints and Fe3Al in Al-to-ASTM A36 steel joints. The welding strengths of both joints were higher than those of other dissimilar joints reported in the literature. With increasing welding energy, the maximum tensile lap shear strength increased in the Al-to-galvanized HSLA steel joints, while the lap shear strength increased up to a peak value and then decreased in the Al-to-ASTM A36 steel joints. Both the average peak welding strength and fracture energy of the Al-to-galvanized HSLA steel joints were higher than those of the Al-to-ASTM A36 steel joints. The fatigue lives of both welded joints were in agreement with or somewhat longer than other Al-to-steel USWed joints in the literature. The fatigue fracture mode changed with increasing cyclic loads in both welded joints. Fatigue crack growth was mainly characterized by the formation of fatigue striations perpendicular to the fatigue crack propagation direction

Solar Wind Turbulence and the Role of Ion Instabilities

International audienc

Field Measurements of Terrestrial and Martian Dust Devils

Surface-based measurements of terrestrial and martian dust devils/convective vortices provided from mobile and stationary platforms are discussed. Imaging of terrestrial dust devils has quantified their rotational and vertical wind speeds, translation speeds, dimensions, dust load, and frequency of occurrence. Imaging of martian dust devils has provided translation speeds and constraints on dimensions, but only limited constraints on vertical motion within a vortex. The longer mission durations on Mars afforded by long operating robotic landers and rovers have provided statistical quantification of vortex occurrence (time-of-sol, and recently seasonal) that has until recently not been a primary outcome of more temporally limited terrestrial dust devil measurement campaigns. Terrestrial measurement campaigns have included a more extensive range of measured vortex parameters (pressure, wind, morphology, etc.) than have martian opportunities, with electric field and direct measure of dust abundance not yet obtained on Mars. No martian robotic mission has yet provided contemporaneous high frequency wind and pressure measurements. Comparison of measured terrestrial and martian dust devil characteristics suggests that martian dust devils are larger and possess faster maximum rotational wind speeds, that the absolute magnitude of the pressure deficit within a terrestrial dust devil is an order of magnitude greater than a martian dust devil, and that the time-of-day variation in vortex frequency is similar. Recent terrestrial investigations have demonstrated the presence of diagnostic dust devil signals within seismic and infrasound measurements; an upcoming Mars robotic mission will obtain similar measurement types

Roadmap on Li-ion battery manufacturing research

Growth in the Li-ion battery market continues to accelerate, driven primarily by the increasing need for economic energy storage for electric vehicles. Electrode manufacture by slurry casting is the first main step in cell production but much of the manufacturing optimisation is based on trial and error, know-how and individual expertise. Advancing manufacturing science that underpins Li-ion battery electrode production is critical to adding to the electrode manufacturing value chain. Overcoming the current barriers in electrode manufacturing requires advances in materials, manufacturing technology, in-line process metrology and data analytics, and can enable improvements in cell performance, quality, safety and process sustainability. In this roadmap we explore the research opportunities to improve each stage of the electrode manufacturing process, from materials synthesis through to electrode calendering. We highlight the role of new process technology, such as dry processing, and advanced electrode design supported through electrode level, physics-based modelling. Progress in data driven models of electrode manufacturing processes is also considered. We conclude there is a growing need for innovations in process metrology to aid fundamental understanding and to enable feedback control, an opportunity for electrode design to reduce trial and error, and an urgent imperative to improve the sustainability of manufacture

Relationship between immune checkpoint proteins, tumour microenvironment characteristics, and prognosis in primary operable colorectal cancer

The tumour microenvironment is an important factor for colorectal cancer prognosis, affecting the patient's immune response. Immune checkpoints, which regulate the immune functions of lymphocytes, may provide prognostic power. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of the immune checkpoints TIM‐3, LAG‐3 and PD‐1 in patients with stage I–III colorectal cancer. Immunohistochemistry was employed to detect TIM‐3, LAG‐3, PD‐1 and PD‐L1 in 773 patients with stage I–III colorectal cancer. Immune checkpoint protein expression was assessed in tumour cells using the weighted histoscore, and in immune cells within the stroma using point counting. Scores were analysed for associations with survival and clinical factors. High tumoural LAG‐3 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.45 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00–2.09, p = 0.049) and PD‐1 (HR 1.34 95% CI 1.00–1.78, p = 0.047) associated with poor survival, whereas high TIM‐3 (HR 0.60 95% CI 0.42–0.84, p = 0.003), LAG‐3 (HR 0.58 95% CI 0.40–0.87, p = 0.006) and PD‐1 (HR 0.65 95% CI 0.49–0.86, p = 0.002) on immune cells within the stroma associated with improved survival, while PD‐L1 in the tumour (p = 0.487) or the immune cells within the stroma (p = 0.298) was not associated with survival. Furthermore, immune cell LAG‐3 was independently associated with survival (p = 0.017). Checkpoint expression scores on stromal immune cells were combined into a Combined Immune Checkpoint Stromal Score (CICSS), where CICSS 3 denoted all high, CICSS 2 denoted any two high, and CICSS 1 denoted other combinations. CICSS 3 was associated with improved patient survival (HR 0.57 95% CI 0.42–0.78, p = 0.001). The results suggest that individual and combined high expression of TIM‐3, LAG‐3, and PD‐1 on stromal immune cells are associated with better colorectal cancer prognosis, suggesting there is added value to investigating multiple immune checkpoints simultaneously

Quantizing N=2 Multicenter Solutions

N=2 supergravity in four dimensions, or equivalently N=1 supergravity in five dimensions, has an interesting set of BPS solutions that each correspond to a number of charged centers. This set contains black holes, black rings and their bound states, as well as many smooth solutions. Moduli spaces of such solutions carry a natural symplectic form which we determine, and which allows us to study their quantization. By counting the resulting wavefunctions we come to an independent derivation of some of the wall-crossing formulae. Knowledge of the explicit form of these wavefunctions allows us to find quantum resolutions to some apparent classical paradoxes such as solutions with barely bound centers and those with an infinitely deep throat. We show that quantum effects seem to cap off the throat at a finite depth and we give an estimate for the corresponding mass gap in the dual CFT. This is an interesting example of a system where quantum effects cannot be neglected at macroscopic scales even though the curvature is everywhere small.Comment: 49 pages + appendice