Statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle (1844-1993)

International audienceA previous application of extreme-value statistics to the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844?1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868?1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844?1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily measure of geomagnetic activity over an interval of 150 years. As in the earlier investigation, analytic expressions giving the probabilities of the three greatest storms (extreme values) per solar cycle, as continuous functions of storm magnitude (aa), are obtained by least-squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme-value probability functions. These expressions are used to obtain the statistical characteristics of the extreme values; namely, the mode, median, mean, standard deviation and relative dispersion. Since the Ak index may not provide an entirely homogeneous extension of the aa index, the statistical analysis is performed separately for twelve solar cycles (1868?1993), as well as nine solar cycles (1868?1967). The results are utilized to determine the expected ranges of the extreme values as a function of the number of solar cycles. For fourteen solar cycles, the expected ranges of the daily aa index for the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle decrease monotonically in magnitude, contrary to the situation for the half-daily aa index over nine solar cycles. The observed range of the first extreme daily aa index for fourteen solar cycles is 159?352 nT and for twelve solar cycles is 215?352 nT. In a group of 100 solar cycles the expected ranges are expanded to 137?539 and 177?511 nT, which represent increases of 108% and 144% in the respective ranges. Thus there is at least a 99% probability that the daily aa index will satisfy the condition aa < 550 for the largest geomagnetic storm in the next 100 solar cycles. The statistical analysis is used to infer that remarkable conjugate auroral observations on the night of 16 September 1770, which were recorded during the first voyage of Captain Cook to Australia, occurred during an intense geomagnetic storm

Post-Prior discrepancies in CDW-EIS calculations for ion impact ionization fully differential cross sections

In this work we present fully differential cross sections (FDCSs) calculations using post and prior version of CDW--EIS theory for helium single ionization by 100 MeV C$^{6+}$ amu$^{-1}$ and 3.6 MeV amu$^{-1}$ Au$^{24+}$ and Au$^{53+}$ ions. We performed our calculations for different momentum transfer and ejected electron energies. The influence of internuclear potential on the ejected electron spectra is taken into account in all cases. We compare our calculations with absolute experimental measurements. It is shown that prior version calculations give better agreement with experiments in almost all studied cases.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

Inverse problem for the Landau-Zener effect

We consider the inverse Landau-Zener problem which consists in finding the energy-sweep functions W(t)=E1(t)-E2(t) resulting in the required time dependences of the level populations for a two-level system crossing the resonance one or more times during the sweep. We find sweep functions of particular forms that let manipulate the system in a required way, including complete switching from the state 1 to the state 2 and preparing the system at the exact ground and excited states at resonance.Comment: 7 EPL pages, 6 figure

Symmetric eikonal model for projectile-electron excitation and loss in relativistic ion-atom collisions

At impact energies $\stackrel{>}{\sim}1$ GeV/u the projectile-electron excitation and loss occurring in collisions between highly charged ions and neutral atoms is already strongly influenced by the presence of atomic electrons. In order to treat these processes in collisions with heavy atoms we generalize the symmetric eikonal model, used earlier for considerations of electron transitions in ion-atom collisions within the scope of a three-body Coulomb problem. We show that at asymptotically high collision energies this model leads to an exact transition amplitude and is very well suited to describe the projectile-electron excitation and loss at energies above a few GeV/u. In particular, by considering a number of examples we demonstrate advantages of this model over the first Born approximation at impact energies $\sim 1$--30 GeV/u, which are of special interest for atomic physics experiments at the future GSI facilities.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Adiabatic following criterion, estimation of the nonadiabatic excitation fraction and quantum jumps

An accurate theory describing adiabatic following of the dark, nonabsorbing state in the three-level system is developed. An analytical solution for the wave function of the particle experiencing Raman excitation is found as an expansion in terms of the time varying nonadiabatic perturbation parameter. The solution can be presented as a sum of adiabatic and nonadiabatic parts. Both are estimated quantitatively. It is shown that the limiting value to which the amplitude of the nonadiabatic part tends is equal to the Fourier component of the nonadiabatic perturbation parameter taken at the Rabi frequency of the Raman excitation. The time scale of the variation of both parts is found. While the adiabatic part of the solution varies slowly and follows the change of the nonadiabatic perturbation parameter, the nonadiabatic part appears almost instantly, revealing a jumpwise transition between the dark and bright states. This jump happens when the nonadiabatic perturbation parameter takes its maximum value.Comment: 33 pages, 8 figures, submitted to PRA on 28 Oct. 200

A synoptic view of solar transient evolution in the inner heliosphere using the Heliospheric Imagers on STEREO

By exploiting data from the STEREO/heliospheric imagers (HI) we extend a well-established technique developed for coronal analysis by producing time-elongation plots that reveal the nature of solar transient activity over a far more extensive region of the heliosphere than previously possible from coronagraph images. Despite the simplicity of these plots, their power in demonstrating how the plethora of ascending coronal features observed near the Sun evolve as they move antisunward is obvious. The time-elongation profile of a transient tracked by HI can, moreover, be used to establish its angle out of the plane-of-the-sky; an illustration of such analysis reveals coronal mass ejection material that can be clearly observed propagating out to distances beyond 1AU. This work confirms the value of the time-elongation format in identifying/characterising transient activity in the inner heliosphere, whilst also validating the ability of HI to continuously monitor solar ejecta out to and beyond 1A

Participatory Militias: An Analysis of an Armed Movement's Online Audience

Armed groups of civilians known as "self-defense forces" have ousted the powerful Knights Templar drug cartel from several towns in Michoacan. This militia uprising has unfolded on social media, particularly in the "VXM" ("Valor por Michoacan," Spanish for "Courage for Michoacan") Facebook page, gathering more than 170,000 fans. Previous work on the Drug War has documented the use of social media for real-time reports of violent clashes. However, VXM goes one step further by taking on a pro-militia propagandist role, engaging in two-way communication with its audience. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of VXM and its audience. We examined nine months of posts, from VXM's inception until May 2014, totaling 6,000 posts by VXM administrators and more than 108,000 comments from its audience. We describe the main conversation themes, post frequency and relationships with offline events and public figures. We also characterize the behavior of VXM's most active audience members. Our work illustrates VXM's online mobilization strategies, and how its audience takes part in defining the narrative of this armed conflict. We conclude by discussing possible applications of our findings for the design of future communication technologies.Comment: Participatory Militias: An Analysis of an Armed Movement's Online Audience. Saiph Savage, Andres Monroy-Hernandez. CSCW: ACM Conference on Computer-Supported Cooperative Work 201

First imaging of corotating interaction regions using the STEREO spacecraft

Plasma parcels are observed propagating from the Sun out to the large coronal heights monitored by the Heliospheric Imagers (HI) instruments onboard the NASA STEREO spacecraft during September 2007. The source region of these out-flowing parcels is found to corotate with the Sun and to be rooted near the western boundary of an equatorial coronal hole. These plasma enhancements evolve during their propagation through the HI cameras’ fields of view and only becoming fully developed in the outer camera field of view. We provide evidence that HI is observing the formation of a Corotating Interaction Region(CIR) where fast solar wind from the equatorial coronal hole is interacting with the slow solar wind of the streamer belt located on the western edge of that coronal hole. A dense plasma parcel is also observed near the footpoint of the observed CIR at a distance less than 0.1AU from the Sun where fast wind would have not had time to catch up slow wind. We suggest that this low-lying plasma enhancement is a plasma parcel which has been disconnected from a helmet streamer and subsequently becomes embedded inside the corotating interaction region