Business Employment Dynamics: Tabulations by Employer Size

The gross job gains and gross job loss statistics from the BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) program measure the large gross job flows that underlie the quarterly net change in employment. In the fourth quarter of 2004, employment grew by 869,000 jobs. This growth is the sum of 8.1 million gross job gains from opening and expanding establishments, and 7.2 million gross job losses from contracting and closing establishments. The new BED data have captured the attention of economists and policymakers across the country, and these data are becoming a major contributor to our understanding of employment growth and business cycles in the U.S. economy. Following the initial release of the BED data in September 2003, the BED data series expanded in May 2004 with the release of industry statistics. The BLS then began work on tabulations by size class. The production of size-class statistics is a complex task involving several economic and statistical issues. Although it is trivial to classify a business into a size class in any given quarter, it is difficult to classify a business into a size class for a longitudinal analysis of employment growth. Several different classifications exist, and many of these possible classifications have appealing theoretical and statistical properties. Furthermore, these alternative classification methodologies result in sharply different portraits of employment growth by size class. In this article, we discuss the alternative statistical methodologies that the BLS considered for creating size class tabulations from the Business Employment Dynamics data. Our primary focus is on four methodologies: quarterly base-sizing, annual base-sizing, mean-sizing, and dynamic-sizing. We discuss the evaluation criteria that BLS considered for choosing its official size class methodology.gross job gains; gross job losses; business employment dynamics; size-class statistics; dynamic-sizing

Experience with tacrolimus in children with steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome

Children with steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome (SRNS) are at risk of developing renal failure. We report here the results of a single-center retrospective observational study of the remission rate in pediatric patients with SNRS receiving tacrolimus. Serial renal biopsies from children on tacrolimus therapy were evaluated for tubulointerstitial fibrosis and transforming growth factor-β immunostaining. Of the 16 children with SRNS, 15 went into complete remission after a median of 120 days of therapy. Nine children were able to stop steroids, while the others were on tapering doses. Forty-seven percent had relapses, most of which were steroid-responsive. Serial renal biopsies were obtained from seven children after a median treatment duration of 24 months; two of these children had increased tubulointerstitial fibrosis and four showed increased transforming growth factor-β tissue staining. Children with worsening histological findings were younger. There was no significant association between tacrolimus exposure and biopsy changes, although the average trough level was higher in those children with worsening histological findings. In conclusion, tacrolimus may be a safe and effective alternative agent for inducing remission in children with SRNS. However, caution needs to be taken when prescribing this agent due to its narrow therapeutic index. Serial renal biopsies are necessary to check for subclinical nephrotoxicity, especially in younger children and those with higher trough levels

All grown up? The fate after 15 years of a quarter of a million UK firms born in 1998

The theory of firm growth is in a rather unsatisfactory state. However, the analysis of large firm-level datasets which have become available in recent years allows us to begin building an evidence base which can, in turn, be used to underpin the development of more satisfactory theory. Here we study the 239 thousand UK private sector firms born in 1998 over their first 15 years of life. A first, and quite striking, finding is the extraordinary force of mortality. By age 15, 90% of the UK firms born in 1998 are dead, and, for those surviving to age 15, the hazard of death is still about 10% a year. The chance of death is related to the size and growth of firms in an interesting way. Whilst the hazard rate after 15 years is largely independent of size at birth, it is strongly affected by the current (age 14) size. In particular, firms with more than five employees are half as likely to die in the next year as firms with less than five employees. A second important finding is that most firms, even those which survive to age 15, do not grow very much. By age 15 more than half the 26,000 survivors still have less than five jobs. In other words, the growth paths – what we call the ‘growth trajectories’ – of most of the 26,000 survivors are pretty flat. However, of the firms that do grow, firms born smaller grow faster than those born larger. Another striking finding is that growth is heavily concentrated in the first five years. Whilst growth does continue, even up to age 15, each year after age five it involves only a relatively small proportion of firms. Finally, there are two groups of survivors which contribute importantly to job creation. Some are those born relatively large (with more than 20 jobs) although their growth rate is quite modest. More striking though, is a very small group of firms born very small with less than five jobs (about 5% of all survivors) which contribute a substantial proportion (more than one third) of the jobs added to the cohort total by age 15

Diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome after renal transplantation in the United States

BACKGROUND: The incidence and risk factors for diabetic ketoacidosis (diabetic ketoacidosis) and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome (hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome, previously called non-ketotic hyperosmolar coma) have not been reported in a national population of renal transplant (renal transplantation) recipients. METHODS: We performed a historical cohort study of 39,628 renal transplantation recipients in the United States Renal Data System between 1 July 1994 and 30 June 1998, followed until 31 Dec 1999. Outcomes were hospitalizations for a primary diagnosis of diabetic ketoacidosis (ICD-9 code 250.1x) and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome (code 250.2x). Cox Regression analysis was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios for time to hospitalization for diabetic ketoacidosis or hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome. RESULTS: The incidence of diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome were 33.2/1000 person years (PY) and 2.7/1000 PY respectively for recipients with a prior diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM), and 2.0/1000 PY and 1.1/1000 PY in patients without DM. In Cox Regression analysis, African Americans (AHR, 2.71, 95 %CI, 1.96–3.75), females, recipients of cadaver kidneys, patients age 33–44 (vs. >55), more recent year of transplant, and patients with maintenance TAC (tacrolimus, vs. cyclosporine) had significantly higher risk of diabetic ketoacidosis. However, the rate of diabetic ketoacidosis decreased more over time in TAC users than overall. Risk factors for hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome were similar except for the significance of positive recipient hepatitis C serology and non-significance of female gender. Both diabetic ketoacidosis (AHR, 2.44, 95% CI, 2.10–2.85, p < 0.0001) and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome (AHR 1.87, 95% CI, 1.22–2.88, p = 0.004) were independently associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome were associated with increased risk of mortality and were not uncommon after renal transplantation. High-risk groups were identified

How to Join a Wave: Decision-Making Processes in Shimmering Behavior of Giant Honeybees (Apis dorsata)

Shimmering is a collective defence behaviour in Giant honeybees (Apis dorsata) whereby individual bees flip their abdomen upwards, producing Mexican wave-like patterns on the nest surface. Bucket bridging has been used to explain the spread of information in a chain of members including three testable concepts: first, linearity assumes that individual “agent bees” that participate in the wave will be affected preferentially from the side of wave origin. The directed-trigger hypothesis addresses the coincidence of the individual property of trigger direction with the collective property of wave direction. Second, continuity describes the transfer of information without being stopped, delayed or re-routed. The active-neighbours hypothesis assumes coincidence between the direction of the majority of shimmering-active neighbours and the trigger direction of the agents. Third, the graduality hypothesis refers to the interaction between an agent and her active neighbours, assuming a proportional relationship in the strength of abdomen flipping of the agent and her previously active neighbours. Shimmering waves provoked by dummy wasps were recorded with high-resolution video cameras. Individual bees were identified by 3D-image analysis, and their strength of abdominal flipping was assessed by pixel-based luminance changes in sequential frames. For each agent, the directedness of wave propagation was based on wave direction, trigger direction, and the direction of the majority of shimmering-active neighbours. The data supported the bucket bridging hypothesis, but only for a small proportion of agents: linearity was confirmed for 2.5%, continuity for 11.3% and graduality for 0.4% of surface bees (but in 2.6% of those agents with high wave-strength levels). The complimentary part of 90% of surface bees did not conform to bucket bridging. This fuzziness is discussed in terms of self-organisation and evolutionary adaptedness in Giant honeybee colonies to respond to rapidly changing threats such as predatory wasps scanning in front of the nest

Time to focus on outcome assessment tools for childhood vasculitis

Childhood systemic vasculitides are a group of rare diseases with multi-organ involvement and potentially devastating consequences. After establishment of new classification criteria (Ankara consensus conference in 2008), it is now time to establish measures for proper definition of activity and damage in childhood primary vasculitis. By comparison to adult vasculitis, there is no consensus for indices of activity and damage assessment in childhood vasculitis. Assessment of disease activity is likely to become a major area of interest in pediatric rheumatology in the near future. After defining the classification criteria for primary systemic childhood vasculitis, the next step was to perform a validation study using the original Birmingham vasculitis activity score as well as the disease extent index to measure disease activity in childhood vasculitis. Presently, there are efforts in place to develop a pediatric vasculitis activity score. This paper reviews the current understanding about the assessment tools (i.e., clinical features, laboratory tests, radiologic assessments, etc.) widely used for evaluation of the disease activity and damage status of the children with vasculitis