Illness and Choice of Treatment in Urban and Rural Ethiopia

Using large data set from a nationally representative sample of households and discrete choice models, we examine the effect of access to roads, transport and liquidity on seeking treatment for illness and health care provider choice in urban and rural Ethiopia. The results indicate that access to roads and public transport are important determinants of the decision to seek treatment for illness by the rural residents. We also find evidence that distance to all weather road, access to public transport and access to liquidityhave a strong effect on the utilization of private healthcare facilities. The significance of distance to all weather roads in healthcare utilization isespecially appealing in terms of policy design because it implies that construction of multi-purpose road networks can compensate for the absenceof healthcare facilities in the proximity.Keywords: Illness; healthcare choice; accessibility; liquidity constraint; discrete choice models; sample selectio

Determinants of fertility in rural Ethiopia: the case of Butajira Demographic Surveillance System (DSS)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fertility is high in rural Ethiopia. Women in the reproductive age group differed in various characteristics including access to food and encounter to drought which requisite the assessment of determinants of fertility.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Reproductive age women were recruited from a DSS, the Butajira DSS database. A DHS maternity history questionnaire was administered on 9996 participants. Data quality was assured besides ethical clearance. Poisson regression crude and adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio with 95 Confidence Interval were used to identify determinants of fertility.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Delayed marriage, higher education, smaller family, absence of child death experience and living in food-secured households were associated with small number of children. Fertility was significantly higher among women with no child sex preference. However, migration status of women was not statistically significant.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Policy makers should focus on hoisting women secondary school enrollment and age at first marriage. The community should also be made aware on the negative impact of fertility on household economy, environmental degradation and the country's socio-economic development at large.</p

Modeling factors influencing the demand for emergency department services in ontario: a comparison of methods

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Emergency departments are medical treatment facilities, designed to provide episodic care to patients suffering from acute injuries and illnesses as well as patients who are experiencing sporadic flare-ups of underlying chronic medical conditions which require immediate attention. Supply and demand for emergency department services varies across geographic regions and time. Some persons do not rely on the service at all whereas; others use the service on repeated occasions. Issues regarding increased wait times for services and crowding illustrate the need to investigate which factors are associated with increased frequency of emergency department utilization. The evidence from this study can help inform policy makers on the appropriate mix of supply and demand targeted health care policies necessary to ensure that patients receive appropriate health care delivery in an efficient and cost-effective manner. The purpose of this report is to assess those factors resulting in increased demand for emergency department services in Ontario. We assess how utilization rates vary according to the severity of patient presentation in the emergency department. We are specifically interested in the impact that access to primary care physicians has on the demand for emergency department services. Additionally, we wish to investigate these trends using a series of novel regression models for count outcomes which have yet to be employed in the domain of emergency medical research.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data regarding the frequency of emergency department visits for the respondents of Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) during our study interval (2003-2005) are obtained from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS). Patients' emergency department utilizations were linked with information from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) which provides individual level medical, socio-demographic, psychological and behavioral information for investigating predictors of increased emergency department utilization. Six different multiple regression models for count data were fitted to assess the influence of predictors on demand for emergency department services, including: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial. Comparison of competing models was assessed by the Vuong test statistic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The CCHS cycle 2.1 respondents were a roughly equal mix of males (50.4%) and females (49.6%). The majority (86.2%) were young-middle aged adults between the ages of 20-64, living in predominantly urban environments (85.9%), with mid-high household incomes (92.2%) and well-educated, receiving at least a high-school diploma (84.1%). Many participants reported no chronic disease (51.9%), fell into a small number (0-5) of ambulatory diagnostic groups (62.3%), and perceived their health status as good/excellent (88.1%); however, were projected to have high Resource Utilization Band levels of health resource utilization (68.2%). These factors were largely stable for CCHS cycle 3.1 respondents. Factors influencing demand for emergency department services varied according to the severity of triage scores at initial presentation. For example, although a non-significant predictor of the odds of emergency department utilization in high severity cases, access to a primary care physician was a statistically significant predictor of the likelihood of emergency department utilization (OR: 0.69; 95% CI OR: 0.63-0.75) and the rate of emergency department utilization (RR: 0.57; 95% CI RR: 0.50-0.66) in low severity cases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using a theoretically appropriate hurdle negative binomial regression model this unique study illustrates that access to a primary care physician is an important predictor of both the odds and rate of emergency department utilization in Ontario. Restructuring primary care services, with aims of increasing access to undersupplied populations may result in decreased emergency department utilization rates by approximately 43% for low severity triage level cases.</p

Genetic Risk Score to Identify Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Cardiometabolic Disease

BACKGROUND –: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality with a known genetic contribution. We tested the performance of a genetic risk score (GRS) for its ability to predict VTE in three cohorts of patients with cardiometabolic disease. METHODS –: We included patients from the FOURIER, PEGASUS-TIMI 54, and SAVOR-TIMI 53 trials (history of atherosclerosis, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, respectively) who consented for genetic testing and were not on baseline anticoagulation. We calculated a VTE GRS based on 297 SNPs with established genome-wide significance. Patients were divided into tertiles of genetic risk. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios for VTE across genetic risk groups. The polygenic risk score was compared to available clinical risk factors (age, obesity, smoking, history of heart failure, diabetes) and common monogenic mutations. RESULTS –: A total of 29,663 patients were included in the analysis with a median follow-up of 2.4 years, of whom 174 had a VTE event. There was a significantly increased gradient of risk across VTE genetic risk tertiles (p-trend <0.0001). After adjustment for clinical risk factors, patients in the intermediate and high genetic risk groups had a 1.88-fold (95% CI 1.23–2.89, p=0.004) and 2.70-fold (95% CI 1.81–4.06, p<0.0001) higher risk of VTE compared to patients with low genetic risk. In a continuous model adjusted for clinical risk factors, each standard deviation increase in the GRS was associated with a 47% (95% CI 29–68) increased risk of VTE (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS –: In a broad spectrum of patients with cardiometabolic disease, a polygenic risk score is a strong, independent predictor of VTE after accounting for available clinical risk factors, identifying 1/3 of patients who have a risk of VTE comparable to that seen with established monogenic thrombophilia

Social Transmission and the Spread of Modern Contraception in Rural Ethiopia

Socio-economic development has proven to be insufficient to explain the time and pace of the human demographic transition. Shifts to low fertility norms have thus been thought to result from social diffusion, yet to date, micro-level studies are limited and are often unable to disentangle the effect of social transmission from that of extrinsic factors. We used data which included the first ever use of modern contraception among a population of over 900 women in four villages in rural Ethiopia, where contraceptive prevalence is still low (<20%). We investigated whether the time of adoption of modern contraception is predicted by (i) the proportion of ever-users/non ever-users within both women and their husbands' friendships networks and (ii) the geographic distance to contraceptive ever-users. Using a model comparison approach, we found that individual socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. parity, education) and a religious norm are the most likely explanatory factors of temporal and spatial patterns of contraceptive uptake, while the role of person-to-person contact through either friendship or spatial networks remains marginal. Our study has broad implications for understanding the processes that initiate transitions to low fertility and the uptake of birth control technologies in the developing world

The acute phase management of spinal cord injury affecting polytrauma patients : the ASAP study

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Background: Few data on the management of acute phase of traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI) in patients suffering polytrauma are available. As the therapeutic choices in the first hours may have a deep impact on outcome of tSCI patients, we conducted an international survey investigating this topic. Methods: The survey was composed of 29 items. The main endpoints of the survey were to examine: (1) the hemodynamic and respiratory management, (2) the coagulation management, (3) the timing of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and spinal surgery, (4) the use of corticosteroid therapy, (5) the role of intraspinal pressure (ISP)/spinal cord perfusion pressure (SCPP) monitoring and (6) the utilization of therapeutic hypothermia. Results: There were 171 respondents from 139 centers worldwide. A target mean arterial pressure (MAP) target of 80–90 mmHg was chosen in almost half of the cases [n = 84 (49.1%)]. A temporary reduction in the target MAP, for the time strictly necessary to achieve bleeding control in polytrauma, was accepted by most respondents [n = 100 (58.5%)]. Sixty-one respondents (35.7%) considered acceptable a hemoglobin (Hb) level of 7 g/dl in tSCI polytraumatized patients. An arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) of 80–100 mmHg [n = 94 (55%)] and an arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2) of 35–40 mmHg [n = 130 (76%)] were chosen in most cases. A little more than half of respondents considered safe a platelet (PLT) count > 100.000/mm3 [n = 99 (57.9%)] and prothrombin time (PT)/activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) < 1.5 times the normal control [n = 85 (49.7%)] in patients needing spinal surgery. MRI [n = 160 (93.6%)] and spinal surgery [n = 158 (92.4%)] should be performed after intracranial, hemodynamic, and respiratory stabilization by most respondents. Corticosteroids [n = 103 (60.2%)], ISP/SCPP monitoring [n = 148 (86.5%)], and therapeutic hypothermia [n = 137 (80%)] were not utilized by most respondents. Conclusions: Our survey has shown a great worldwide variability in clinical practices for acute phase management of tSCI patients with polytrauma. These findings can be helpful to define future research in order to optimize the care of patients suffering tSCI.Peer reviewe

Correction to: Two years later: Is the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic still having an impact on emergency surgery? An international cross-sectional survey among WSES members

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is still ongoing and a major challenge for health care services worldwide. In the first WSES COVID-19 emergency surgery survey, a strong negative impact on emergency surgery (ES) had been described already early in the pandemic situation. However, the knowledge is limited about current effects of the pandemic on patient flow through emergency rooms, daily routine and decision making in ES as well as their changes over time during the last two pandemic years. This second WSES COVID-19 emergency surgery survey investigates the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on ES during the course of the pandemic. Methods: A web survey had been distributed to medical specialists in ES during a four-week period from January 2022, investigating the impact of the pandemic on patients and septic diseases both requiring ES, structural problems due to the pandemic and time-to-intervention in ES routine. Results: 367 collaborators from 59 countries responded to the survey. The majority indicated that the pandemic still significantly impacts on treatment and outcome of surgical emergency patients (83.1% and 78.5%, respectively). As reasons, the collaborators reported decreased case load in ES (44.7%), but patients presenting with more prolonged and severe diseases, especially concerning perforated appendicitis (62.1%) and diverticulitis (57.5%). Otherwise, approximately 50% of the participants still observe a delay in time-to-intervention in ES compared with the situation before the pandemic. Relevant causes leading to enlarged time-to-intervention in ES during the pandemic are persistent problems with in-hospital logistics, lacks in medical staff as well as operating room and intensive care capacities during the pandemic. This leads not only to the need for triage or transferring of ES patients to other hospitals, reported by 64.0% and 48.8% of the collaborators, respectively, but also to paradigm shifts in treatment modalities to non-operative approaches reported by 67.3% of the participants, especially in uncomplicated appendicitis, cholecystitis and multiple-recurrent diverticulitis. Conclusions: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic still significantly impacts on care and outcome of patients in ES. Well-known problems with in-hospital logistics are not sufficiently resolved by now; however, medical staff shortages and reduced capacities have been dramatically aggravated over last two pandemic years