Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy

International audienceTwo lacustrine sediment cores from Lake Ledro in northern Italy were studied to produce chronologies of floodevents for the past 10 000 yr. For this purpose, we have developed an automatic method that objectively identifies the sedimentary imprint of river floods in the downstream lake basin. The method was based on colour data extracted from processed core photographs, and the count data were analysed to capture the flood signal. Flood frequency and reconstructed sedimentary dynamics were compared with lake-level changes and pollen inferred vegetation dynamics. The results suggest a record marked by low flood frequency during the early and middle Holocene (10 000–4500 cal BP). Only modest increases during short intervals are recorded at ca. 8000, 7500, and 7100 cal BP. After 4500–4000 cal BP, the record shows a shift toward increased flood frequency. With the exception of two short intervals around 2900–2500 and 1800–1400 cal BP, which show a slightly reduced number of floods, the trend of increasing flood frequency prevailed until the 20th century, reaching a maximum between the 16th and the 19th centuries. Brief-flood frequency increases recorded during the early and middle Holocene can be attributed to climatic oscillations. On a centennial time scale, major changes in flood frequency, such as those observed after ca. 4500/4000 and 500 cal BP, can be attributed to large-scale climatic changes such as the Neo-glacial and Little Ice Age, which are under orbital and possibly solar control. However, in the Bronze Age and during the Middle Ages and modern times, forest clearing and land use probably partially control the flood activity

Ab-initio density-functional lattice-dynamics studies of ice

We present the results of first-principles computational studies of the dynamical properties of hexagonal ice using both the ab-initio pseudopotential method and the full-potential augmented plane-wave method. Properties obtained using both the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) and the meta-GGA in density-functional theory are compared. The lattice-dynamical properties of the structures are obtained using a finite-difference evaluation of the dynamical matrix and force-constant matrix from atomic forces. Phonon dispersion is evaluated by the direct determination of the force-constant matrix in supercells derived from the primitive molecule unit cells with the assumption that force constants are zero beyond the second molecular nearest neighbors. The k-dependent phonon frequencies are then obtained from the force-constant matrix and dispersion relations, and the Brillouin-zone integrated density of states is evaluated. The importance of phonon dispersion in the various regions of the phonon spectra is then assessed and compared to existing neutron-scattering data. Frozen-phonon calculations are used to compare phonon frequencies evaluated in both the GGA and meta-GGA

A Structure for Quasars

This paper proposes a simple, empirically derived, unifying structure for the inner regions of quasars. This structure is constructed to explain the broad absorption line (BAL) regions, the narrow `associated' ultraviolet and X-ray warm absorbers (NALs); and is also found to explain the broad emission line regions (BELR), and several scattering features, including a substantial fraction of the broad X-ray Iron-K emission line, and the bi-conical extended narrow emission line region (ENLR) structures seen on large kiloparsec scales in Seyfert images. Small extensions of the model to allow luminosity dependent changes in the structure may explain the UV and X-ray Baldwin effects and the greater prevalence of obscuration in low luminosity AGN.Comment: 35 pages, including 8 color figures (figures 4abc are big). Astrophysical Journal, in press. Expanded version of conference paper astro-ph/000516

X-ray Spectral Survey of WGACAT Quasars, II: Optical and Radio Properties of Quasars with Low Energy X-ray Cut-offs

We have selected quasars with X-ray colors suggestive of a low energy cut-off, from the ROSAT PSPC pointed archive. We examine the radio and optical properties of these 13 quasars. Five out of the seven quasars with good optical spectra show associated optical absorption lines, with two having high delta-v candidate systems. Two other cut-off quasars show reddening associated with the quasar. We conclude that absorption is highly likely to be the cause of the X-ray cut-offs, and that the absorbing material associated with the quasars, not intervening along the line-of-sight. The suggestion that Gigahertz Peaked Sources are associated with X-ray cut-offs remains unclear with this expanded sample.Comment: 17 pages, LaTeX, including 2 Tables and 1 figure. Ap.J. in pres

Understanding air release through air valves

[EN] Water transients with entrapped air can originate large pressure peaks that can severely damage distribution networks. Entrapped air can have a damping or amplifying effect on these undesirable pressure peaks. Unfortunately, the complexity of the phenomenon too often makes it difficult to obtain a fully reliable prediction about when air pockets will mitigate or accentuate water transients. Furthermore, the value of some of the parameters involved in the conventional numerical models cannot be calculated or measured and need to be determined through a calibration process. With the aim of overcoming most of the aforementioned uncertainties, this paper summarizes a complete set of tests conducted at WL | Delft Hydraulics. These tests were simulated by means of a tailored numerical model that includes a set of parameters whose values were determined by means of a calibration process. The experimental setup, a large-scale facility, consisted of a single steep pipeline with an air valve installed at its top end. Air release through different air valves was tested under different conditions. © 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.This research has been possible thanks to the European Community Programme "Access to Major Research Infrastructure" under the Fifth Framework Growth Programme (Contract No. GIRT-CT-2002-05069).Carlos Alberola, MDM.; Arregui De La Cruz, F.; Cabrera Marcet, E.; Palau, C. (2011). Understanding air release through air valves. Journal of Urban Planning and Development. 137(4):461-469. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0000324S461469137

An efficient approach for surveillance of childhood diabetes by type derived from electronic health record data: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study

Objective To develop an efficient surveillance approach for childhood diabetes by type across 2 large US health care systems, using phenotyping algorithms derived from electronic health record (EHR) data

A Spectroscopic Study of a Large Sample of Wolf-Rayet Galaxies

We analyze long-slit spectral observations of 39 Wolf-Rayet (WR) galaxies with heavy element mass fraction ranging over 2 orders of magnitude, from Zsun/50 to 2Zsun. Nearly all galaxies in our sample show broad WR emission in the blue region of the spectrum (the blue bump) consisting of an unresolved blend of N III 4640, C III 4650, C IV 4658 and He II 4686 emission lines. Broad C IV 5808 emission (the red bump) is detected in 30 galaxies. Additionally, weaker WR emission lines are identified, most often the N III 4512 and Si III 4565 lines, which have very rarely or never been seen and discussed before in WR galaxies. These emission features are characteristic of WN7-WN8 and WN9-WN11 stars respectively. We derive the numbers of early WC (WCE) and late WN (WNL) stars from the luminosities of the red and blue bumps, and the number of O stars from the luminosity of the Hbeta emission line. Additionally, we propose a new technique for deriving the numbers of WNL stars from the N III 4512 and Si III 4565 emission lines. This technique is potentially more precise than the blue bump method because it does not suffer from contamination of WCE and early WN (WNE) stars and nebular gaseous emission. The N(WR)/N(O+WR) ratio decreases with decreasing metallicity, in agreement with predictions of evolutionary synthesis models. The N(WC)/N(WN) ratios and the equivalent widths of the blue bump EW(4650) and of the red bump EW(5808) derived from observations are also in satisfactory agreement with theoretical predictions.Comment: 49 pages, 9 figures, to appear in Astrophys.

The severe presentation and poor outcomes of rheumatic heart disease in Namibia: Lessons from the REMEDY study

Background. This paper reports the baseline characteristics and outcomes of 266 Namibian patients in the Global Registry of Rheumatic Heart Disease. Objective. To describe clinical findings and outcomes in a cohort of children and adults with rheumatic heart disease in Namibia. Methods. Prospective study of all patients with rheumatic heart disease at Windhoek Central Hospital between January 2010 and November 2012. Results. A total of 266 patients were enrolled; median age was 22 years, 72.6% were <30 years old and 60.5% female. The majority (62.8%) had moderate-severe disease; 48.9% were in congestive cardiac failure. Secondary antibiotic prophylaxis was used by 34.2%. Warfarin was used by 75.3% (n=64/85) with clinical indications. Forty-seven (17.6%) had previous valve interventions, of whom 40 (15.0%) had mechanical valve replacements. Over a 2-year follow-up period 19.1% of patients died. Severe valve involvement at enrolment was independently associated with mortality (24.6% v. 5.1% in those without severe disease; hazard ratio 4.9; 95% confidence interval 1.50 - 15.98). Sixty-five (29.8%) of the 218 without previous intervention had valvular intervention after enrolment. Conclusions. In Namibia rheumatic heart disease affects young people who present with severe disease and have a high case fatality rate. Rates of secondary prevention were low. These findings have informed the National Programme for Prevention and Control of Rheumatic Heart Disease in Namibia

Clinical evolution of beta cell function in youth with diabetes: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study

Few studies have explored the epidemiology of beta cell loss in youth with diabetes. This report describes the evolution and major determinants of beta cell function, assessed by fasting C-peptide (FCP), in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study