Exact Bayesian Inference on Discrete Models via Probability Generating Functions: A Probabilistic Programming Approach

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for discrete statistical models, which can find exact solutions to many discrete inference problems, even with infinite support and continuous priors. To express such models, we introduce a probabilistic programming language that supports discrete and continuous sampling, discrete observations, affine functions, (stochastic) branching, and conditioning on events. Our key tool is probability generating functions: they provide a compact closed-form representation of distributions that are definable by programs, thus enabling the exact computation of posterior probabilities, expectation, variance, and higher moments. Our inference method is provably correct, fully automated and uses automatic differentiation (specifically, Taylor polynomials), but does not require computer algebra. Our experiments show that its performance on a range of real-world examples is competitive with approximate Monte Carlo methods, while avoiding approximation errors

Strain bursts in plastically deforming Molybdenum micro- and nanopillars

Plastic deformation of micron and sub-micron scale specimens is characterized by intermittent sequences of large strain bursts (dislocation avalanches) which are separated by regions of near-elastic loading. In the present investigation we perform a statistical characterization of strain bursts observed in stress-controlled compressive deformation of monocrystalline Molybdenum micropillars. We characterize the bursts in terms of the associated elongation increments and peak deformation rates, and demonstrate that these quantities follow power-law distributions that do not depend on specimen orientation or stress rate. We also investigate the statistics of stress increments in between the bursts, which are found to be Weibull distributed and exhibit a characteristic size effect. We discuss our findings in view of observations of deformation bursts in other materials, such as face-centered cubic and hexagonal metals.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Phil Ma

Acceleration and localization of subcritical crack growth in a natural composite material

Catastrophic failure of natural and engineered materials is often preceded by an acceleration and localization of damage that can be observed indirectly from acoustic emissions (AE) generated by the nucleation and growth of microcracks. In this paper we present a detailed investigation of the statistical properties and spatiotemporal characteristics of AE signals generated during triaxial compression of a sandstone sample. We demonstrate that the AE event amplitudes and interevent times are characterized by scaling distributions with shapes that remain invariant during most of the loading sequence. Localization of the AE activity on an incipient fault plane is associated with growth in AE rate in the form of a time-reversed Omori law with an exponent near 1. The experimental findings are interpreted using a model that assumes scale-invariant growth of the dominating crack or fault zone, consistent with the Dugdale-Barenblatt “process zone” model. We determine formal relationships between fault size, fault growth rate, and AE event rate, which are found to be consistent with the experimental observations. From these relations, we conclude that relatively slow growth of a subcritical fault may be associated with a significantly more rapid increase of the AE rate and that monitoring AE rate may therefore provide more reliable predictors of incipient failure than direct monitoring of the growing fault

Depinning transition of dislocation assemblies: pileup and low-angle grain boundary

We investigate the depinning transition occurring in dislocation assemblies. In particular, we consider the cases of regularly spaced pileups and low angle grain boundaries interacting with a disordered stress landscape provided by solute atoms, or by other immobile dislocations present in non-active slip systems. Using linear elasticity, we compute the stress originated by small deformations of these assemblies and the corresponding energy cost in two and three dimensions. Contrary to the case of isolated dislocation lines, which are usually approximated as elastic strings with an effective line tension, the deformations of a dislocation assembly cannot be described by local elastic interactions with a constant tension or stiffness. A nonlocal elastic kernel results as a consequence of long range interactions between dislocations. In light of this result, we revise statistical depinning theories and find novel results for Zener pinning in grain growth. Finally, we discuss the scaling properties of the dynamics of dislocation assemblies and compare theoretical results with numerical simulations.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figure

Depinning transition of dislocation assemblies: pileup and low-angle grain boundary

We investigate the depinning transition occurring in dislocation assemblies. In particular, we consider the cases of regularly spaced pileups and low angle grain boundaries interacting with a disordered stress landscape provided by solute atoms, or by other immobile dislocations present in non-active slip systems. Using linear elasticity, we compute the stress originated by small deformations of these assemblies and the corresponding energy cost in two and three dimensions. Contrary to the case of isolated dislocation lines, which are usually approximated as elastic strings with an effective line tension, the deformations of a dislocation assembly cannot be described by local elastic interactions with a constant tension or stiffness. A nonlocal elastic kernel results as a consequence of long range interactions between dislocations. In light of this result, we revise statistical depinning theories and find novel results for Zener pinning in grain growth. Finally, we discuss the scaling properties of the dynamics of dislocation assemblies and compare theoretical results with numerical simulations.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figure