Local dimension and finite time prediction in spatiotemporal chaotic systems

We show how a recently introduced statistics [Patil et al, Phys. Rev. Lett. 81 5878 (2001)] provides a direct relationship between dimension and predictability in spatiotemporal chaotic systems. Regions of low dimension are identified as having high predictability and vice-versa. This conclusion is reached by using methods from dynamical systems theory and Bayesian modelling. We emphasize in this work the consequences for short time forecasting and examine the relevance for factor analysis. Although we concentrate on coupled map lattices and coupled nonlinear oscillators for convenience, any other spatially distributed system could be used instead, such as turbulent fluid flows.Comment: 5 pagers, 7 EPS figure

The Role of Deposition of Cosmogenic 10Be for the Detectability of Solar Proton Events

The manifestation of extreme solar proton events (SPEs) in Beryllium-10 (10Be) ice core data contains valuable information about the strength and incidence of SPEs or local characteristics of the atmosphere. To extract this information, the signals of enhanced production of cosmogenic 10Be due to the SPEs have to be detected, hence distinguished from the variability of the background production by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Here, we study the transport and deposition of 10Be from GCRs, using the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry climate model, and discuss the detectability of extreme SPEs (similar to the CE 774/775 SPE) in 10Be ice core data depending on the ice core location, seasonal appearance of the SPE, atmospheric aerosol size distribution and phase of the 11-year solar cycle. We find that sedimentation can be a major deposition mechanism of GCR generated 10Be, especially at high latitudes, depending on the aerosols to which 10Be attaches after production. The comparison of our results to four ice core records of 10Be from Greenland and Antarctica shows good agreement for both 10Be from GCRs and solar energetic particles (SEP). From our results we deduce that the location of detection and the season of occurrence of the SPE have a considerable effect on its detectability, as well as the aerosol size distribution the produced cosmogenic nuclides meet in the atmosphere. Furthermore, we find that SPEs occurring in the phase of highest activity during the 11-year solar cycle are more detectable than SPEs that arise in the phase of lowest activity

Technical approach for the design of a high-resolution spectral model on a sphere: Application to decaying turbulence

International audienceSeveral technical suggestions to construct a high-resolution spectral model on a sphere (the T682 barotropic model) are presented and their implementation of FORTRAN77 libraries is provided as a free software package ISPACK (http://www.gfd-dennou.org/arch/ispack/). A test experiment on decaying turbulence is conducted to demonstrate the ability of the model

Modeling the Transport and Deposition of ¹⁰Be Produced by the Strongest Solar Proton Event During the Holocene

Prominent excursions in the number of cosmogenic nuclides (e.g., ¹⁰Be) around 774 CE/775 document the most severe solar proton event (SPE) throughout the Holocene. Its manifestation in ice cores is valuable for geochronology, but also for solar-terrestrial physics and climate modeling. Using the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) climate model in combination with the Warning System for Aviation Exposure to SEP (WASAVIES), we investigate the transport, mixing, and deposition of the cosmogenic nuclide ¹⁰Be produced by the 774 CE/775 SPE. By comparing the model results to the reconstructed ¹⁰Be time series from four ice core records, we study the atmospheric pathways of ¹⁰Be from its stratospheric source to its sink at Earth's surface. The reconstructed post-SPE evolution of the ¹⁰Be surface fluxes at the ice core sites is well captured by the model. The downward transport of the ¹⁰Be atoms is controlled by the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere and cross-tropopause transport via tropopause folds or large-scale sinking. Clear hemispheric differences in the transport and deposition processes are identified. In both polar regions the ¹⁰Be surface fluxes peak in summertime, with a larger influence of wet deposition on the seasonal ¹⁰Be surface flux in Greenland than in Antarctica. Differences in the peak ¹⁰Be surface flux following the 774 CE/775 SPE at the drilling sites are explained by specific meteorological conditions depending on the geographic locations of the sites

A further experiment on two-dimensional decaying turbulence on a rotating sphere

A series of numerical experiments on the two-dimensional decaying turbulence is performed for a non-divergent barotropic fluid on a rotating sphere by using a high-resolution spectral model. Time variations of the energy spectrum and the flow field are highly dependent on the rotation rate. In non-rotational cases, isolated coherent vortices emerge in the course of time development as in the planar two-dimensional turbulence. As the rotation rate increases, however, the evolution of the flow field changes drastically, and a westward circumpolar vortex appears in high-latitudes as well as zonal band structures in mid- and low-latitudes. The dependence of these features on the initial energy spectrum is investigated and the dynamics of such pattern formations is discussed

Cross-Reactive Neuraminidase Antibodies Afford Partial Protection against H5N1 in Mice and Are Present in Unexposed Humans

BACKGROUND: A pandemic H5N1 influenza outbreak would be facilitated by an absence of immunity to the avian-derived virus in the human population. Although this condition is likely in regard to hemagglutinin-mediated immunity, the neuraminidase (NA) of H5N1 viruses (avN1) and of endemic human H1N1 viruses (huN1) are classified in the same serotype. We hypothesized that an immune response to huN1 could mediate cross-protection against H5N1 influenza virus infection. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Mice were immunized against the NA of a contemporary human H1N1 strain by DNA vaccination. They were challenged with recombinant A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (PR8) viruses bearing huN1 (PR8-huN1) or avN1 (PR8-avN1) or with H5N1 virus A/Vietnam/1203/04. Additional naïve mice were injected with sera from vaccinated mice prior to H5N1 challenge. Also, serum specimens from humans were analyzed for reactivity with avN1. Immunization elicited a serum IgG response to huN1 and robust protection against the homologous challenge virus. Immunized mice were partially protected from lethal challenge with H5N1 virus or recombinant PR8-avN1. Sera transferred from immunized mice to naïve animals conferred similar protection against H5N1 mortality. Analysis of human sera showed that antibodies able to inhibit the sialidase activity of avN1 exist in some individuals. CONCLUSIONS: These data reveal that humoral immunity elicited by huN1 can partially protect against H5N1 infection in a mammalian host. Our results suggest that a portion of the human population could have some degree of resistance to H5N1 influenza, with the possibility that this could be induced or enhanced through immunization with seasonal influenza vaccines

Dose distribution in the thyroid gland following radiation therapy of breast cancer-a retrospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Purpose</p> <p>To relate the development of post-treatment hypothyroidism with the dose distribution within the thyroid gland in breast cancer (BC) patients treated with loco-regional radiotherapy (RT).</p> <p>Methods and materials</p> <p>In two groups of BC patients postoperatively irradiated by computer tomography (CT)-based RT, the individual dose distributions in the thyroid gland were compared with each other; Cases developed post-treatment hypothyroidism after multimodal treatment including 4-field RT technique. Matched patients in Controls remained free for hypothyroidism. Based on each patient's dose volume histogram (DVH) the volume percentages of the thyroid absorbing respectively 20, 30, 40 and 50 Gy were then estimated (V20, V30, V40 and V50) together with the individual mean thyroid dose over the whole gland (MeanTotGy). The mean and median thyroid dose for the included patients was about 30 Gy, subsequently the total volume of the thyroid gland (VolTotGy) and the absolute volumes (cm³) receiving respectively < 30 Gy and ≥ 30 Gy were calculated (Vol < 30 and Vol ≥ 30) and analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No statistically significant inter-group differences were found between V20, V30, V40 and V50Gy or the median of MeanTotGy. The median VolTotGy in Controls was 2.3 times above VolTotGy in Cases (ρ = 0.003), with large inter-individual variations in both groups. The volume of the thyroid gland receiving < 30 Gy in Controls was almost 2.5 times greater than the comparable figure in Cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We concluded that in patients with small thyroid glands after loco-radiotherapy of BC, the risk of post-treatment hypothyroidism depends on the volume of the thyroid gland.</p

Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change