When markets fall down: are emerging markets all the same?

This paper studies the dynamics of stock market regimes in emerging markets. Using a mixture version of the standard regime-switching model, we find that the 18 analysed emerging markets can be clustered into three groups. Whereas each of these three groups is characterized by the same two regimes-a bull state with positive returns and low volatility and a bear state with negative returns and high volatility-they clearly differ with respect to their regime-switching dynamics. The first group contains stock markets which swing frequently between the two regimes, the second group shows more regime persistence, and the third group consists of stock markets that are less likely than the others to move to a bear regime period. Standard practice among stock market analysts is to group emerging markets by geographical region. The fact that our model-based clustering is only weakly related to such a regional classification demonstrates the limited validity of the latter. Moreover, a detailed analysis of regime synchronicities across the 18 studied emerging markets shows that there is evidence of regime synchronicity for certain pairs of markets, but this does not rule out that two synchronized markets have different regime dynamics and thus belong to different regime-switching clusters. Hence, our results show that it is incorrect to treat the studied emerging markets as a single homogeneous group because there is strong evidence for substantial differences in their regime-switching dynamics.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Development and individual differences in transitive reasoning: A fuzzy trace theory approach

Fuzzy trace theory explains why children do not have to use rules of logic or premise information to infer transitive relationships. Instead, memory of the premises and performance on transitivity tasks is explained by a verbatim ability and a gist ability. Until recently, the processes involved in transitive reasoning and memory of the premises were studied by comparing mean performance in fixed-age groups. In this study, an individual-difference model of fuzzy trace theory for transitive reasoning was formulated and tested on a sample (N = 409) of 4- to 13-year-old children. Tasks were used which differed with respect to presentation ordering and position ordering. From this individual- difference model expectations could be derived about the individual performance on memory and transitivity test-pairs. The multilevel latent class model was used to fit the formalized individual-difference fuzzy trace theory to the sample data. The model was shown to fit the data to a large extent. The results showed that verbatim ability and gist ability drove the activation of verbatim and gist traces, respectively, and that children used combinations of these traces to solve memory tasks (testing memory of the premises) and transitivity tasks. Task format had a stronger effect on transitivity task performance than on memory of the premises. Development of gist ability was found to be faster than development of verbatim ability. Another important finding was that some children remembered the premise information correctly but were not able to infer the transitive relationship, even though the premises provided all the necessary information. This contradicts Trabasso’s linear ordering theory which posits that memory of the premises is sufficient to infer transitive relationships

Measuring exposure to bullying at work:The validity and advantages of the latent class cluster approach

This paper addresses the construct and predictive validity of two methods for classifying respondents as victims of workplace bullying. Although bullying is conceived as a complex phenomenon, the dominant method used in bullying surveys, the operational classification method, only distinguishes two groups: victims versus non-victims. Hence, the complex nature of workplace bullying may not be accounted for. Therefore a latent class cluster approach is suggested to model the data, which was obtained by using the Negative Acts Questionnaire (NAQ) administered to employees in Belgium (n=6,175). Latent class modelling is a method of analysis that does not appear to have been used in occupational health psychology before. In this study, six latent classes emerged: “not bullied,” “limited work criticism,” “limited negative encounters,” “sometimes bullied,” “work related bullied,” and “victims.” The results show that compared to the traditional operational classification method, the latent class cluster approach shows higher construct and higher predictive validity with respect to self-assessments and indicators of strain and well-being at work. The consequences of these results for theory, future research, and practice are discussed

A new three-step method for using inverse propensity weighting with latent class analysis

Bias-adjusted three-step latent class analysis (LCA) is widely popular to relate covariates to class membership. However, if the causal effect of a treatment on class membership is of interest and only observational data is available, causal inference techniques such as inverse propensity weighting (IPW) need to be used. In this article, we extend the bias-adjusted three-step LCA to incorporate IPW. This approach separates the estimation of the measurement model from the estimation of the treatment effect using IPW only for the later step. Compared to previous methods, this solves several conceptual issues and more easily facilitates model selection and the use of multiple imputation. This new approach, implemented in the software Latent GOLD, is evaluated in a simulation study and its use is illustrated using data of prostate cancer patients

A cross-cultural comparison of student learning patterns in higher education

Marambe, K. N., Vermunt, J. D., & Boshuizen, H. P. A. (2012). A cross-cultural comparison of student learning patterns in higher education. Higher Education, 64(3), 299-316. doi:10.1007/s10734-011-9494-zThe aim of this study was to compare student learning patterns in higher education across different cultures. A meta-analysis was performed on three large-scale studies that had used the same research instrument: the Inventory of learning Styles (ILS). The studies were conducted in the two Asian countries Sri Lanka and Indonesia and the European country The Netherlands. Students reported use of learning strategies, metacognitive strategies, conceptions of learning and learning orientations were compared in two ways: by analyses of variance of students' mean scale scores on ILS scales, as well as by comparing the factor structures of the ILS-scales between the three studies. Results showed most differences in student learning patterns between Asian and European students. However, many differences were identified between students from the two Asian countries as well. The Asian learner turned out to be a myth. Moreover, Sri Lankan students made the least use of memorising strategies of all groups. That Asian learners would have a propensity for rote learning turned out to be a myth as well. Some patterns of learning turned out to be universal and occurred in all groups, other patterns were found only among the Asian or the European students. The findings are discussed in terms of learning environment and culture as explanatory factors. Practical implications for student mobility in an international context are derived

The Global Omnivore: Identifying Musical Taste Groups in Austria, England, Israel and Serbia

This research offers a unique opportunity to revisit the omnivore hypothesis under a unified method of cross-national analysis. To accomplish this, we interpret omnivourism as a special case of cultural eclecticism (Ollivier, 2008; Ollivier, Gauthier and Truong, 2009). Our methodological approach incorporates the simultaneous analysis of locally produced and globally known musical genres. Its objective is to verify whether cultural omnivourism is a widespread phenomenon, and to determine to what extent any conclusions can be generalised across countries with different social structures and different levels of cultural openness. To truly understand the scope of the omnivourism hypothesis, we argue that it is essential to perform a cross-national comparison to test the hypothesis within a range of social, political and cultural contexts, and a reflection of different historical and cultural repertoires (Lamont, 1992)

Mapping QGP properties in Pb--Pb and Xe--Xe collisions at the LHC

A phenomenological analysis of the experimental measurements of transverse momentum spectra of identified charged hadrons and strange hyperons in \PbPb and \XeXe collisions at the LHC is presented. The analysis is based on the relativistic fluid dynamics description implemented in the numerically efficient \fluidum approach. Building on our previous work, we separate in our treatment the chemical and kinetic freeze-out, and incorporate the partial chemical equilibrium to describe the late stages of the collision evolution. This analysis makes use of Bayesian inference to determine key parameters of the QGP evolution and its properties including the shear and bulk viscosity to entropy ratios, the initialisation time, the initial entropy density, and the freeze-out temperatures. The physics parameters and their posterior probabilities are extracted using a global search in multidimensional space with modern machine learning tools, such as ensembles of neural networks. We employ our newly developed fast framework to assess systematic uncertainties in the extracted model parameters by systematically varying key components of our analysis.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figure

Monitorial citizens or civic omnivores? Repertoires of civic participation among university students

In present-day societies, the extent to which young people still participate in civic life is an important matter of concern. The claim of a generational "decline" in civic engagement has been contested, and interchanged with the notion of a "replacement" of traditional engagement by new types of participation, and the emergence of the "monitorial citizen" who participates in more individualized ways. Concurrently, this study explored the assumption of a "pluralization" of involvement, advancing a new concept: the "civic omnivore," characterized by an expanded civic repertoire. Drawing data from a sample of 1,493 Belgian and Dutch university students, we identify five repertoires of participation such as, disengaged students, classical volunteers, humanitarian citizens, monitorial citizens, and civic omnivores. Our findings support the pluralization thesis, by showing that young citizens are not exclusively engaged in new monitorial ways, yet also expand their civic repertoire by combining traditional and new forms in more complex ways