How certain is the uncertainty effect

Abstract We replicate three tasks for which Gneezy, List and Wu (Q. J. Econ. 121(4): 2006) document the so-called uncertainty effect: People value a binary lottery over non-monetary outcomes less than other people value the lottery's worse outcome. While the authors implement verbal lottery descriptions, we use a physical lottery format and also provide subjects with complete information about the goods they are to value. We observe for all three pricing tasks that subjects' willingness to pay for the lottery is significantly higher than other subjects' willingness to pay for the lottery's worse outcome

Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes. The authors use systematic monitoring across the former USSR to investigate phenological changes across taxa. The long-term mean temperature of a site emerged as a strong predictor of phenological change, with further imprints of trophic level, event timing, site, year and biotic interactions.Peer reviewe

The seasonal sensitivity of brown bear denning phenology in response to climatic variability

BackgroundFor brown bears (Ursus arctos), hibernation is a critical part of the annual life cycle because energy savings during hibernation can be crucial for overwintering, and females give birth to cubs at that time. For hibernation to be a useful strategy, timing is critical. However, environmental conditions vary greatly, which might have a negative effect on the functionality of the evolved biological time-keeping. Here, we used a long-term dataset (69years) on brown bear denning phenology recorded in 12 Russian protected areas and quantified the phenological responses to variation in temperature and snow depth. Previous studies analyzing the relationship between climate and denning behavior did not consider that the brown bear response to variation in climatic factors might vary through a period preceding den entry and exit. We hypothesized that there is a seasonal sensitivity pattern of bear denning phenology in response to variation in climatic conditions, such that the effect of climatic variability will be pronounced only when it occurs close to den exit and entry dates.ResultsWe found that brown bears are most sensitive to climatic variations around the observed first den exit and last entry dates, such that an increase/decrease in temperature in the periods closer to the first den exit and last entry dates have a greater influence on the denning dates than in other periods.ConclusionsOur study shows that climatic factors are modulating brown bear hibernation phenology and provide a further structuring of this modulation. The sensitivity of brown bears to changes in climatic factors during hibernation might affect their ability to cope with global climate change. Therefore, understanding these processes will be essential for informed management of biodiversity in a changing world.Peer reviewe

How certain is the uncertainty effect?

Decision making under risk, Framing, Experiments, Task ambiguity, C81, C91, C93, D83,

Differences in spatial versus temporal reaction norms for spring and autumn phenological events

For species to stay temporally tuned to their environment, they use cues such as the accumulation of degree-days. The relationships between the timing of a phenological event in a population and its environmental cue can be described by a population-level reaction norm. Variation in reaction norms along environmental gradients may either intensify the environmental effects on timing (cogradient variation) or attenuate the effects (countergradient variation). To resolve spatial and seasonal variation in species' response, we use a unique dataset of 91 taxa and 178 phenological events observed across a network of 472 monitoring sites, spread across the nations of the former Soviet Union. We show that compared to local rates of advancement of phenological events with the advancement of temperature-related cues (i.e., variation within site over years), spatial variation in reaction norms tend to accentuate responses in spring (cogradient variation) and attenuate them in autumn (countergradient variation). As a result, among-population variation in the timing of events is greater in spring and less in autumn than if all populations followed the same reaction norm regardless of location. Despite such signs of local adaptation, overall phenotypic plasticity was not sufficient for phenological events to keep exact pace with their cues-the earlier the year, the more did the timing of the phenological event lag behind the timing of the cue. Overall, these patterns suggest that differences in the spatial versus temporal reaction norms will affect species' response to climate change in opposite ways in spring and autumn