A view from above : changing seas, seabirds and food sources

In this review we summarize what is known about mechanisms by which climate change may be affecting the populations of seabirds around the UK. Breeding success and adult survival are the key factors affecting changes in seabird populations, and food intake is implicated as a major determinant of both. The diet of most UK seabird species is almost exclusively sandeels, small clupeoid fish or zooplankton and it is clear that the marine pelagic food web is the key ecological system determining food supply. Hence, we develop the review by first considering how climate changes may affect primary production, and then examine how this propagates through the food web to zooplankton and fish culminating in fluctuations in seabird numbers. A trend of increasing numbers of many seabird species since 1970, particularly puffins, guillemots and razorbills, appears to have been reversed since 2000. The proximate cause of the recent declines seems to be a succession of 5 years of low breeding success for a range of species due to a shortage of food, especially sandeels. However, the connection with climate change remains uncertain, though there are indications that declines in the productivity of sandeel populations may be linked in some complex way to warming sea temperatures. The main conclusion is that no part of the marine food web, including fisheries, can be considered in isolation when trying to understand and predict the consequences of climate change for seabirds. Impacts can be expected in all parts of the system, and all parts of the system are interconnected

A Statistical Social Network Model for Consumption Data in Food Webs

We adapt existing statistical modeling techniques for social networks to study consumption data observed in trophic food webs. These data describe the feeding volume (non-negative) among organisms grouped into nodes, called trophic species, that form the food web. Model complexity arises due to the extensive amount of zeros in the data, as each node in the web is predator/prey to only a small number of other trophic species. Many of the zeros are regarded as structural (non-random) in the context of feeding behavior. The presence of basal prey and top predator nodes (those who never consume and those who are never consumed, with probability 1) creates additional complexity to the statistical modeling. We develop a special statistical social network model to account for such network features. The model is applied to two empirical food webs; focus is on the web for which the population size of seals is of concern to various commercial fisheries.Comment: On 2013-09-05, a revised version entitled "A Statistical Social Network Model for Consumption Data in Trophic Food Webs" was accepted for publication in the upcoming Special Issue "Statistical Methods for Ecology" in the journal Statistical Methodolog

Decoupling Growth from Growth-dependent Planning Paradigms: Contesting Prevailing Urban Renewal Futures in Sydney, Australia

With the population of Sydney expected to reach 7 million+ in the next 20 years, current strategic planning policy is firmly growth oriented in its aims, and growth dependent in its settings, with a key focus on promoting higher density redevelopment around rail stations through value uplift. Using the Sydenham-to-Bankstown Corridor as our case study, this paper engages with the contradictions underpinning current templates for market-driven urban renewal. Questioning models privileging a financialised, hypertrophic reconfiguration of existing neighbourhoods, we examine the business of densification and its spatial manifestation(s) to explore potential frameworks for greater inclusivity in both the process, and outcomes, of suburban growth. 摘要： 随着悉尼人口在未来20年内预计将达到700万以上，目前的战略规划政策的目标是坚定地以增长为导向，并在其环境中依赖增长，重点是通过价值提升促进火车站周围更高密度的再开发. 本文以西德纳姆-班克斯敦走廊为例，探讨了当前市场驱动的城市更新模式所存在的矛盾. 在质疑现有街区金融化、过度重组的模式时，我们研究了密集化的业务及其空间表现形式，以探索郊区发展过程和结果中更大包容性的潜在框架

Carbon dioxide and ocean acidification observations in UK waters. Synthesis report with a focus on 2010–2015

Key messages: 1.1 The process of ocean acidification is now relatively well-documented at the global scale as a long-term trend in the open ocean. However, short-term and spatial variability can be high. 1.2 New datasets made available since Charting Progress 2 make it possible to greatly improve the characterisation of CO2 and ocean acidification in UK waters. 3.1 Recent UK cruise data contribute to large gaps in national and global datasets. 3.2 The new UK measurements confirm that pH is highly variable, therefore it is important to measure consistently to determine any long term trends. 3.3 Over the past 30 years, North Sea pH has decreased at 0.0035±0.0014 pH units per year. 3.4 Upper ocean pH values are highest in spring, lowest in autumn. These changes reflect the seasonal cycles in photosynthesis, respiration (decomposition) and water mixing. 3.5 Carbonate saturation states are minimal in the winter, and lower in 7 more northerly, colder waters. This temperature-dependence could have implications for future warming of the seas. 3.6 Over the annual cycle, North-west European seas are net sinks of CO2. However, during late summer to autumn months, some coastal waters may be significant sources. 3.7 In seasonally-stratified waters, sea-floor organisms naturally experience lower pH and saturation states; they may therefore be more vulnerable to threshold changes. 3.8 Large pH changes (0.5 - 1.0 units) can occur in the top 1 cm of sediment; however, such effects are not well-documented. 3.9 A coupled forecast model estimates the decrease in pH trend within the North Sea to be -0.0036±0.00034 pH units per year, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). 3.10 Seasonal estimates from the forecast model demonstrate areas of the North Sea that are particularly vulnerable to aragonite undersaturation

Evaluation and learning in public housing urban renewal

This report analyses how evaluation and learning from public housing renewal is informing policy development and delivery to maximise financial returns and socio-economic outcomes. The research was conducted pre-COVID-19. • Public housing renewal provides an opportunity for policy makers to give direction to urban reconfiguration processes. Since the 2000s public housing renewal has increasingly become part of a policy discourse that places emphasis on 'unlocking' under-utilised sites (i.e. public housing estates) for jobs, investment and urban renewal. In this intersection with urban renewal processes, mixed-tenure public housing renewal, in practice, becomes public housing urban renewal. • This research highlights a consistency of views across stakeholders (often on pragmatic grounds) regarding 'how public housing renewal works'. It is thus possible to conceptualise learning and evaluation in public housing renewal policy-making within an advocacy coalition framework (ACF). • An ACF framework focuses on the alignment of the beliefs, actions and interest of a range of stakeholders with respect to how policies work, or can work. Our use of the ACF is grounded in a consistency of views about 'how public housing renewal works', given the prevailing institutional and financial constraints, and the implication of this for the role of evaluation and learning, rather than any suggestion of a formal or informal actual coalition, or collusion, in agenda setting or public policy objectives. • Interviewees perceived evaluation to be one of several integral parts to the policy formation process. However, evaluations have frequently been summative, rather than formative in nature. In addition, stakeholders also relied on personal and institutional experience to inform policy development and decision-making. These learning dynamics have, over time, reinforced key aspects of the policy core belief within the advocacy coalition. • The policy core belief guiding public housing urban renewal is characterised by a shared belief in the instrumental role of land values and land value change as a means of reconciling multiple asset- and people-based outcomes, while controlling the cost of public policy to public budgets. Mixed tenure, housing density and the strategic leveraging of land are policies that also extract land value for public housing reinvestment and other public policy goals. • The central role of land and land value has raised concerns amongst tenants, groups external to the advocacy coalition, but also some of the interviewees that public housing renewal is increasingly driven by asset-based viability considerations and reduced government exposure to risk. While risk related to physical reconfiguration (public housing stock renewal) in this respect is reduced, other objectives (such as wider social and economic benefits for tenants) increasingly become shaped by - rather than shaping urban reconfiguration processes. • Core members of the public housing renewal advocacy coalition are state governments and private developers. Additional members are (in some cases) community housing providers (CHPs) and local governments. Policy formation within advocacy coalitions is shaped by multiple factors. This includes evaluations, but also reacting to external events and internal stakeholder dynamics. • In the contextual analysis in this research, change in relative income is used as an indicator of social and economic reconfiguration. Apart from Adelaide, census collection districts (CCD) subject to public housing renewal experienced little improvement in relative income status (1996-2016). • Citywide drivers (such as economic restructuring, urban sprawl containment, population growth) and neighbourhood drivers (such as economic obsolescence, relative incomes) are specific drivers of social and economic reconfiguration. These are evident in all three capital cities, leading to the potential to 'unlock' value through mixed tenure and public housing renewal. • Policy options exist that can unlock more inclusive conceptualisations of value, and shift the reliance on land value in the program logic of public housing renewal. The design of public housing renewal tenders, and strategies for implementation, offer considerable opportunity for policy experimentation; identification and evaluation of assumed causal relationships and benefits. A social infrastructure perspective provides a framework for 'unlocking' additional and renewal project-specific values. A number of tools already exist to estimate the (equivalent) monetary value of wider social and economic benefits

Redeveloping the compact city: the challenges of strata collective sales

Purpose: High-density development requires large land parcels, but fragmented land ownership can impede redevelopment. While earlier compact city development in Sydney occurred on large-scale brownfield sites, redeveloping and re-amalgamating older strata-titled properties is now integral to further densification. The purpose of this study is to examine collective sales activity in one Sydney suburb where multiple strata-titled redevelopments and re-amalgamations have been attempted. The authors explore how owners navigate the process of selling collectively, focusing on their experience of legislation introduced to facilitate this process, the Strata Schemes Development Act 2015 [New South Wales (NSW)]. Design/methodology/approach: By reviewing sales listings, development applications and media coverage, and interviewing owners, lawyers and estate agents, the authors map out collective sale activity in a case study area in Sydney’s northwest. Findings: Strata collective sales are slow and difficult to complete, even when planning and market drivers align. Owners find the Strata Scheme Development Act 2015 (NSW) difficult to navigate and it has not prevented strategic blocking attempts by competing developers. The long timelines required to organise collective sales can result in failure if the market shifts in the interim. Nonetheless, owners remain interested in selling collectively. Originality/value: This case study is important for understanding the barriers to redevelopment to achieve a more compact city. It highlights lessons for other jurisdictions considering similar legislative changes. It also suggests that legislative change alone is insufficient to resolve the planning challenges created by hyper-fragmentation of land through strata-title development

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Narrative inquiry into (re)imagining alternative schools: a case study of Kevin Gonzales.

Although there are many alternative schools that strive for the successful education for their students, negative images of alternative schools persist. While some alternative schools are viewed as “idealistic havens,” many are viewed as “dumping grounds,” or “juvenile detention centers.” Employing narrative inquiry, this article interrogates how a student, Kevin Gonzales, experiences his alternative education and raises questions about the role of alternative schools. Kevin Gonzales’s story is presented in a literary form of biographical journal to provide a “metaphoric loft” that helps us imagine other students like Kevin. This, in turn, provokes us to examine our current educational practice, and to (re)imagine ways in which alternative education can provide the best possible educational experiences for disenfranchised students who are increasingly underserved by the public education system

Disaster risk in Caribbean fisheries: How vulnerability is shaped and how it can be reduced in Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda

Hurricanes and tropical storms have a substantial and sustained influence on fisheries globally. These threats present particularly significant challenges in Caribbean islands, where fisheries contribute towards economies, food security, and social and cultural identities. Yet, storm impacts on coastal communities and fisheries are a relatively neglected area of disaster risk reduction. In response, this paper reports on a novel application and adaptation of the Pressure and Release model (PAR) focused on Caribbean Island fisheries. The PAR is a wellestablished framework used to understand how vulnerability manifests and to identify appropriate policy and management options to reduce vulnerability and build resilience in the longer-term. This research highlights how this approach can expose underlying social, cultural, and economic factors that can either reduce or exacerbate vulnerability in the Caribbean island fisheries sector following extreme weather events using Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda as case studies. This study combines a literature review compiling data on underlying factors of vulnerability for Caribbean Island fisheries, with in-person interviews with fisheries managers from Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda. It showcases the utility of the PAR in fisheries-focused recovery, and provides empirical evidence that fisheries play an important role in supporting immediate and medium-term coping and recovery after an extreme storm event. This approach has broader relevance for climate change adaptation as it highlights strategies for building resilience for fisheries-dependent societies

Acidification and its effect on the ecosystems of the ICES Area

This focuses on the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on ecosystems and higher trophic levels in the ICES Area. One of ICES distinguishing features is its access to scientists across the entire marine field. This report is based on the Report of the Workshop on the Significance of Changes in Surface CO2 and Ocean pH in ICES Shelf Sea Ecosystems (WKCpH; ICES, 2007c), updated to include recent research, using inputs from the chairs of ICES working groups. Oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 has led to a perturbation of the chemical environment, primarily in ocean surface waters, which is associated with an increase in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The increase in atmospheric CO2 from ca. 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume) 200 years ago to 390 ppmv today (2011) has most probably been caused by an average reduction across the surface of the oceans of ca. 0.08 pH units (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003) and a decrease in the carbonate ion (CO32−) of ca. 20 μmol kg −1 (Keshgi, 1995; Figure 5.1). It has been estimated that the level could drop by a further 0.3 – 0.4 pH units by the year 2100 if CO2 emissions are not regulated (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Raven et al., 2005). A study of potential changes in most of the North Sea (Blackford and Gilbert, 2007) suggests that pH change this century may exceed its natural annual variability. Impacts of acidity induced change are likely, but their exact nature remains largely unknown, and they may occur across the whole range of ecosystem processes. Most work has concentrated on open‐ocean systems, and little research has been applied to the complex systems found in shelf‐sea environments