On large-sample estimation and testing via quadratic inference functions for correlated data

Hansen (1982) proposed a class of "generalized method of moments" (GMMs) for estimating a vector of regression parameters from a set of score functions. Hansen established that, under certain regularity conditions, the estimator based on the GMMs is consistent, asymptotically normal and asymptotically efficient. In the generalized estimating equation framework, extending the principle of the GMMs to implicitly estimate the underlying correlation structure leads to a "quadratic inference function" (QIF) for the analysis of correlated data. The main objectives of this research are to (1) formulate an appropriate estimated covariance matrix for the set of extended score functions defining the inference functions; (2) develop a unified large-sample theoretical framework for the QIF; (3) derive a generalization of the QIF test statistic for a general linear hypothesis problem involving correlated data while establishing the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null and local alternative hypotheses; (4) propose an iteratively reweighted generalized least squares algorithm for inference in the QIF framework; and (5) investigate the effect of basis matrices, defining the set of extended score functions, on the size and power of the QIF test through Monte Carlo simulated experiments.Comment: 32 pages, 2 figure

A New Technique for Finding Needles in Haystacks: A Geometric Approach to Distinguishing Between a New Source and Random Fluctuations

We propose a new test statistic based on a score process for determining the statistical significance of a putative signal that may be a small perturbation to a noisy experimental background. We derive the reference distribution for this score test statistic; it has an elegant geometrical interpretation as well as broad applicability. We illustrate the technique in the context of a model problem from high-energy particle physics. Monte Carlo experimental results confirm that the score test results in a significantly improved rate of signal detection.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Green consumer markets in the fight against climate change

Climate change has become one of the greatest threats to environmental security, as attested by the growing frequency of severe flooding and storms, extreme temperatures and droughts. Accordingly, the European Union’s (EU) 6th Environment Action Programme (2010) lists tackling climate change as its first priority. A key aim of the EU has been to cut CO2 emissions, a major factor in climate change, by 8% until 2012 and 20% until 2020. The European Commission has proposed the encouragement of private consumer market for green products and services as one of several solutions to this problem. However, existing research suggests that the market share of these products has been only 3%, although 30% of individuals favour environmental and ethical goods. This article uses Public Goods Theory to explain why the contribution of the green consumer market to fighting climate change has been and possibly may remain limited without further public intervention

First karyological analysis of the endemic malagasy phantom gecko matoatoa brevipes (Squamata: Gekkonidae)

The genus Matoatoa includes two Malagasy endemic species, M. brevipes and M. spannringi. Due to their cryptic behaviour, the two species are known only from a handful of specimens and have been included in few molecular studies. Here we carried out a molecular barcoding analysis using a fragment of the mitochondrial NADH dehy-drogenase subunit 2 (ND2) and the first chromosomal analysis of M. brevipes. The molecular analysis confirmed the identity of the studied samples as M. brevipes. However, the level of genetic divergence (4% uncorrected p-distance) between our samples and other sequences of M. brevipes, suggests previously unrecognised diversity within the spe-cies. The karyotype of M. brevipes is composed of 2n = 34 chromosomes: the first pair is metacentric, while all the other pairs are telocentric and gradually decreasing in length (Arm Number, AN = 36). C-banding revealed little evidence of centromeric heterochromatin, while NOR-associated heterochromatin was found on the telomeres of a medi-um sized telocentric pair. No heteromorphic chromosome pairs were found in the karyotype of the species, suggesting that putative sex chromosomes are at an early stage of differentiation. Karyological comparisons with closely related species were performed with Christinus marmoratus, and representatives of the genera Phelsuma, Ebenavia, Paroedura and Uroplatus. Comparisons across genera suggest that chromosome diversification in this group of geckos probably occurred by means of chromosome fusions and inversions, leading to a reduction of the chromosome number and the formation of biarmed elements in different species

A small temperature rise may contribute towards the apparent induction by microwaves of heatshock gene expression in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans

We have previously reported that low-intensity microwave exposure (0.75-1.0 GHz CW at 0.5 W; SAR 4-40 mW kg-1) can induce an apparently non-thermal heat-shock response in Caenorhabditis elegans worms carrying hsp16-1::reporter genes. Using matched copper TEM cells for both sham and exposed groups, we can detect only modest reporter induction in the latter (15-20% after 2.5 h at 26°C, rising to ~50% after 20 h). Traceable calibration of our copper TEM cell by the National Physical Laboratory (NPL) reveals significant power loss within the cell (8.5% at 1.0 GHz), accompanied by slight heating of exposed samples (~0.3°C at 1.0 W). Thus exposed samples are in fact slightly warmer (by ≤0.2°C at 0.5 W) than sham controls. Following NPL recommendations, our TEM cell design was modified with the aim of reducing both power loss and consequent heating. In the modified silver-plated cell, power loss is only 1.5% at 1.0 GHz, and sample warming is reduced to ~ 0.15°C at 1.0 W (i.e. ≤ 0.1°C at 0.5 W). Under sham:sham conditions, there is no difference in reporter expression between the modified silverplated TEM cell and an unmodified copper cell. However, worms exposed to microwaves (1.0 GHz and 0.5 W) in the silver-plated cell also show no detectable induction of reporter expression relative to sham controls in the copper cell. Thus the 20% “microwave induction” observed using two copper cells may be caused by a small temperature difference between sham and exposed conditions. In worms incubated for 2.5 h at 26.0, 26.2 and 27.0°C (with no microwave field), there is a consistent and significant increase in reporter expression between 26.0 and 26.2°C (by ~20% in each of 6 independent runs), but paradoxically expression levels at 27.0°C are similar to those seen at 26.0°C. This surprising result is in line with other evidence pointing towards complex regulation of hsp16-1 gene expression across the sub-heat-shock range of 25-27.5°C in C. elegans. We conclude that our original interpretation of a non-thermal effect of microwaves cannot be sustained; at least part of the explanation appears to be thermal

Climatic controls on the survival and loss of ancient types of barley on North Atlantic Islands

This study was partly funded by a Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Service award (PM, JW and TSG). The Scottish Northern Cairngorms reconstruction was finalised through the project NERC project ‘SCOT2K: Reconstructing 2000 years of Scottish climate from tree rings (NE/ K003097/1)’ while the new central and northwest Scottish data were developed as part of a NERC Iapetus PhD project.For ancient types of barley at sites in the Scottish Isles, Faroes, and Iceland, we calculated minimum temperature requirements for grain production (grain production threshold, GPT) as accumulated degree days over the cropping season. Site suitability for barley from AD 1200 to 2000 was investigated by comparing these thresholds with reconstructions of annual cropping season degree days (CSDD) using temperature and tree-ring data. In Iceland, between AD 1200 and 1500, reconstructed CSDD were more favorable in the southwest (Reykjavik), with fewer years below the GPT, than in the North, East and West, but there were two periods (1340–1389 and 1426–1475) with low average CSDD and several years below the GPT which possibly influenced the abandonment of barley cultivation around this time. Reconstructed CSDD for the Faroes (Tórshavn) had only one year below the GPT, but 15 periods of four or more consecutive years with low CSDD which would have challenged barley cultivation, especially in the thirteenth century. Reconstructed CSDD were highest for the Scottish Isles, allowing a more prominent role of barley in the farming system and economy. Nevertheless, years with poor harvests or famines were common and about half were associated with low CSDD, resulting in a significant temperature link but also demonstrating the important contribution of other factors. Despite frequent unfavorable years in both the Faroes and Scottish Isles, resilient production systems, well-adapted barley strains and socio-economic factors allowed barley cultivation to continue, and some ancient types to survive to the present day.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Exhaled Nitric Oxide is Not a Biomarker for Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

To reduce transmission of tuberculosis (TB) in resource-limited countries where TB remains a major cause of mortality, novel diagnostic tools are urgently needed. We evaluated the fractional concentration of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) as an easily measured, noninvasive potential biomarker for diagnosis and monitoring of treatment response in participants with pulmonary TB including multidrug resistant-TB in Lima, Peru. In a longitudinal study however, we found no differences in baseline median FeNO levels between 38 TB participants and 93 age-matched controls (13 parts per billion [ppb] [interquartile range (IQR) = 8-26] versus 15 ppb [IQR = 12-24]), and there was no change over 60 days of treatment (15 ppb [IQR = 10-19] at day 60). Taking this and previous evidence together, we conclude FeNO is not of value in either the diagnosis of pulmonary TB or as a marker of treatment response