Energy demand and its temporal flexibility: approaches, criticalities and ways forward

This contribution reviews the options proposed to reduce and/or act on the temporal profile of energy demand (flexibility), mainly at the residential level. Automated technology-driven options and/or monetary incentives towards behaviour shifting from end users are firstly examined. A relevant finding is the existing potential points of frictions between options aimed to reduce energy demand and those acting on its temporality. The identified socio-economic drivers of residential energy demand patterns and temporality are discussed through the application of analytical frameworks for the coupling of energy and social systems, with the overall aim to gather a thorough understanding of energy demand and its temporality for more aware options for the control of energy demand and its temporal flexibility. A particular focus is dedicated to the perspective of social-practice theory for its capability of capturing relations between users and material artefacts, with a discussion of its theoretical principles and of its application in practical examples. Through examination of the dialogue between technological and social dimensions of energy demand and its temporality in the literature, assumption and epistemic uncertainty exploration lead to more aware energy demand options. Despite its significance, this research avenue remains largely unexplored. We suggest critical areas for development of this dialogue are: (i) the translation of meaning of demand in relation to concepts of non-negotiable energy end use effects associated with technology efficacy/efficiency, (ii) issues of new fixities resulting from intended technological demand flexibility, (iii) addressing issues of determinism in accounts of new technology impacts, (iv) implementation of demand side management and response technology with respect to social accounts of demand temporality

Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making

This article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem with the case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modeling in the 1980s. We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help mitigate this issue, which include Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing (SAUD). We illustrate the potential of these reflexive modeling practices in energy policy-making with three additional cases: (i) the case of the energy system modeling environment (ESME) for the creation of UK energy policy; (ii) the negative emission technologies (NETs) uptake in integrated assessment models (IAMs); and (iii) the ecological footprint indicator. We encourage modelers to adopt these approaches to achieve more robust, defensible, and inclusive modeling activities in the field of energy research

Development of a compact and low-cost weather station for renewable energy applications

This paper describes the development of a weather station integrating several sensors which allows the measurement and data storage of the following environmental parameters: solar irradiance, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. The collected data is later transferred to a mobile device, where it is stored in a database and processed in order to be visualized and analyzed by the user. For such purpose, a dedicated mobile app was developed and presented along the paper. The weather station also integrates small solar photovoltaic modules of three different technologies: polycrystalline, monocrystalline and amorphous silicon. Based on that, the weather station also collects information that may be employed to help the user in determining the most suitable solar photovoltaic technology for installation in a particular location. The developed system uses a Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) wireless network to transfer the data to the mobile device when the user approaches the weather station. The system operation was validated through experimental tests that encompass all the main developed features, from the data acquisition in the weather station, to the visualization in the mobile device.- (undefined

GRAd-COV2 vaccine provides potent and durable humoral and cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in randomized placebo-controlled phase 2 trial

The ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and heterologous immunization approaches implemented worldwide for booster doses call for diversified vaccine portfolios. GRAd-COV2 is a gorilla adenovirus-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate encoding prefusion-stabilized spike. The safety and immunogenicity of GRAd-COV2 is evaluated in a dose- and regimen-finding phase 2 trial (COVITAR study, ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04791423) whereby 917 eligible participants are randomized to receive a single intramuscular GRAd-COV2 administration followed by placebo, or two vaccine injections, or two doses of placebo, spaced over 3 weeks. Here, we report that GRAd-COV2 is well tolerated and induces robust immune responses after a single immunization; a second administration increases binding and neutralizing antibody titers. Potent, variant of concern (VOC) cross-reactive spike-specific T cell response peaks after the first dose and is characterized by high frequencies of CD8s. T cells maintain immediate effector functions and high proliferative potential over time. Thus, GRAd vector is a valuable platform for genetic vaccine development, especially when robust CD8 response is needed

Impact of social determinants on antiretroviral therapy access and outcomes entering the era of universal treatment for people living with HIV in Italy

Background: Social determinants are known to be a driving force of health inequalities, even in high income countries. Aim of our study was to determine if these factors can limit antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, outcome and retention in care of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Italy. Methods: All ART naïve HIV+ patients (pts) of Italian nationality enrolled in the ICONA Cohort from 2002 to 2016 were included. The association of socio-demographic characteristics (age, sex, risk factor for HIV infection, educational level, occupational status and residency area) with time to: ART initiation (from the first positive anti-HIV test), ART regimen discontinuation, and first HIV-RNA < 50 cp/mL, were evaluated by Cox regression analysis, Kaplan Meier method and log-rank test. Results: A total of 8023 HIV+ pts (82% males, median age at first pos anti-HIV test 36 years, IQR: 29-44) were included: 6214 (77.5%) started ART during the study period. Women, people who inject drugs (PWID) and residents in Southern Italy presented the lowest levels of education and the highest rate of unemployment compared to other groups. Females, pts aged > 50 yrs., unemployed vs employed, and people with lower educational levels presented the lowest CD4 count at ART initiation compared to other groups. The overall median time to ART initiation was 0.6 years (yrs) (IQR 0.1-3.7), with a significant decrease over time [2002-2006 = 3.3 yrs. (0.2-9.4); 2007-2011 = 1.0 yrs. (0.1-3.9); 2012-2016 = 0.2 yrs. (0.1-2.1), p < 0.001]. By multivariate analysis, females (p < 0.01) and PWID (p < 0.001), presented a longer time to ART initiation, while older people (p < 0.001), people with higher educational levels (p < 0.001), unemployed (p = 0.02) and students (p < 0.001) were more likely to initiate ART. Moreover, PWID, unemployed vs stable employed, and pts. with lower educational levels showed a lower 1-year probability of achieving HIV-RNA suppression, while females, older patients, men who have sex with men (MSM), unemployed had higher 1-year risk of first-line ART discontinuation. Conclusions: Despite median time to ART start decreased from 2002 to 2016, socio-demographic factors still contribute to disparities in ART initiation, outcome and durability

Increased risk of virologic failure to the first antiretroviral regimen in HIV-infected migrants compared to natives: Data from the ICONA cohort

Migrant and Italian HIV-infected patients (n = 5773) enrolled in the ICONA cohort in 2004-2014 were compared for disparities in access to an initial antiretroviral regimen and/or risk of virologic failure (VF), and determinants of failure were evaluated. Variables associated with initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) were analysed. Primary endpoint was time to failure after at least 6 months of ART and was defined as: VF, first of two consecutive virus loads (VL) >200 copies/mL; treatment discontinuation (TD) for any reason; and treatment failure as confirmed VL >200 copies/mL or TD. A Poisson multivariable analysis was performed to control for confounders. Migrants presented significantly lower CD4 counts and more frequent AIDS events at baseline. When adjusting for baseline confounders, migrants presented a lower likelihood to begin ART (odds ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.95, p 0.012). After initiating ART, the incidence VF rate was 6.4 per 100 person-years (95% CI 4.8-8.5) in migrants and 2.7 in natives (95% CI 2.2-3.3). Multivariable analysis confirmed that migrants had a higher risk of VF (incidence rate ratio 1.90, 95% CI 1.25-2.91, p 0.003) and treatment failure (incidence rate ratio 1.16, 95% CI 1.01-1.33, p 0.031), with no differences for TD. Among migrants, variables associated with VF were age, unemployment and use of a boosted protease inhibitor-based regimen versus nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Despite the use of more potent and safer drugs in the last 10 years, and even in a universal health care setting, migrants living with HIV still present barriers to initiating ART and an increased risk of VF compared to natives

Switching to dual/monotherapy determines an increase in CD8+ in HIV-infected individuals: An observational cohort study

Background: The CD4/CD8 ratio has been associated with the risk of AIDS and non-AIDS events. We describe trends in immunological parameters in people who underwent a switch to monotherapy or dual therapy, compared to a control group remaining on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods: We included patients in Icona who started a three-drug combination ART regimen from an ART-naïve status and achieved a viral load ≤ 50 copies/mL; they were subsequently switched to another triple or to a mono or double regimen. Standard linear regression at fixed points in time (12-24 months after the switch) and linear mixed model analysis with random intercepts and slopes were used to compare CD4 and CD8 counts and their ratio over time according to regimen types (triple vs. dual and vs. mono). Results: A total of 1241 patients were included; 1073 switched to triple regimens, 104 to dual (72 with 1 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), 32 NRTI-sparing), and 64 to monotherapy. At 12 months after the switch, for the multivariable linear regression the mean change in the log10 CD4/CD8 ratio for patients on dual therapy was -0.03 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.05, -0.0002), and the mean change in CD8 count was +99 (95% CI +12.1, +186.3), taking those on triple therapy as reference. In contrast, there was no evidence for a difference in CD4 count change. When using all counts, there was evidence for a significant difference in the slope of the ratio and CD8 count between people who were switched to triple (points/year change ratio = +0.056, CD8 = -25.7) and those to dual regimen (ratio = -0.029, CD8 = +110.4). Conclusions: We found an increase in CD8 lymphocytes in people who were switched to dual regimens compared to those who were switched to triple. Patients on monotherapy did not show significant differences. The long-term implications of this difference should be ascertained

Prognostic Value of the Fibrosis-4 Index in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type-1 Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy with or without Hepatitis C Virus

Objective: To evaluate the Fibrosis (FIB)-4 index as a predictor of major liver-related events (LRE) and liver-related death (LRD) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type-1 patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Design: Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study. Setting: Italian HIV care centers participating to the ICONA Foundation cohort. Participants: Treatment-naive patients enrolled in ICONA were selected who: initiated cART, had hepatitis C virus (HCV) serology results, were HBsAg negative, had an available FIB-4 index at cART start and during follow up. Methods: Cox regression models were used to determine the association of FIB4 with the risk of major LRE (gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, hepato-renal syndrome or hepatocellular carcinoma) or LRD. Results: Three-thousand four-hundred seventy-five patients were enrolled: 73.3% were males, 27.2% HCV seropositive. At baseline (time of cART initiation) their median age was 39 years, had a median CD4+ T cell count of 260 cells/uL, and median HIV RNA 4.9 log copies/ mL, 65.9% had a FIB-4 < 1.45, 26.4% 1.45-3.25 and 7.7% > 3.25. Over a follow up of 18,662 person-years, 41 events were observed: 25 major LRE and 16 LRD (incidence rate, IR, 2.2 per 1,000 PYFU [95% confidence interval, CI 1.6-3.0]). IR was higher in HCV seropositives as compared to negatives (5.9 vs 0.5 per 1,000 PYFU). Higher baseline FIB-4 category as compared to < 1.45 (FIB-4 1.45-3.25: HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.09-11.58; FIB-4 > 3.25: HR 4.25, 1.21-14.92) and time-updated FIB-4 (FIB-4 1.45-3.25: HR 3.40, 1.02-11.40; FIB- 4> 3.25: HR 21.24, 6.75-66.84) were independently predictive of major LRE/LRD, after adjusting for HIV- and HCV-related variables, alcohol consumption and type of cART. Conclusions: The FIB-4 index at cART initiation, and its modification over time are risk factors for major LRE or LRD, independently of infection with HCV and could be used to monitor patients on cART

Incidence and factors associated with the risk of sexually transmitted diseases in HIV-infected people seen for care in Italy: data from the Icona Foundation cohort.

Objectives: The aims of this study were to identify temporal trends in the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in a cohort of HIV-infected people and to evaluate factors associated with the risk of a new STD diagnosis. Methods: All HIV-infected patients in the Icona Foundation Study cohort enrolled after 1998 were included in this study. STD incidence rates (IRs) were calculated and stratified by calendar period. Predictors of STDs were identified using a Poisson regression model with sandwich estimates for standard errors. Results: Data for 9168 participants were analysed [median age 37.3 (range 18-81) years; 74% male; 30% men who have sex with men (MSM)]. Over 46 736 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), 996 episodes of STDs were observed [crude IR 21.3/1000 PYFU; 95% confidence interval (CI) 20.0-22.6/1000 PYFU]. In multivariable Poisson regression analysis, MSM [rate ratio (RR) 3.03; 95% CI 2.52-3.64 versus heterosexuals], calendar period (RR 1.67; 95% CI 1.42-1.97 for 2008-2012 versus 1998-2002), HIV RNA > 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL (RR 1.44; 95% CI 1.19-1.74 versus HIV RNA ≤ 50 copies/mL) and a current CD4 count < 100 cells/μL (RR 4.66; 95% CI 3.69-5.89; P < 0.001 versus CD4 count > 500 cells/μL) were associated with an increased risk of STDs. In contrast, older age (RR 0.82 per 10 years older; 95% CI 0.77-0.89) and being currently on ART (RR 0.38; 95% CI 0.33-0.45) compared with being ART-naïve or on a treatment interruption were associated with a lower risk of developing STDs. Conclusions: An increase in the incidence of STDs was observed in more recent years. Interventions to prevent STDs and potential spread of HIV should target the younger population, MSM and people currently not receiving ART