Forecasting Exchange-Rates via Local Approximation Methods and Neural Networks

There has been an increased number of papers in the literature in recent years, applying several methods and techniques for exchange - rate prediction. This paper focuses on the Greek drachma using daily observations of the drachma rates against four major currencies, namely the U.S. Dollar (USD), the Deutsche Mark (DM), the French Franc (FF) and the British Pound (GBP) for a period of 11 years, aiming at forecasting their short-term course by applying local approximation methods based on both chaotic analysis and neural networks.Key Words: Exchange Rates, Forecasting, Neural Networks

Attentive Learning of Sequential Handwriting Movements: A Neural Network Model

Defense Advanced research Projects Agency and the Office of Naval Research (N00014-95-1-0409, N00014-92-J-1309); National Science Foundation (IRI-97-20333); National Institutes of Health (I-R29-DC02952-01)

Mesoscale modeling of combined aerosol and photo-oxidant processes in the Eastern Mediterranean

International audienceParticulate matter and photo-oxidant processes in the Eastern Mediterranean have been studied using the UAM-AERO mesoscale air quality model in conjunction with the NILU-CTM regional model. Meteorological data were obtained from the RAMS prognostic meteorological model. The modeling domain includes the eastern Mediterranean area between the Greek mainland and the island of Crete. The modeling system is applied to study the atmospheric processes in three periods, i.e. 13?16 July 2000, 26?30 July 2000 and 7?14 January 2001. The spatial and temporal distributions of both gaseous and particulate matter pollutants have been extensively studied together with the identification of major emission sources in the area. The modeling results were compared with field data obtained in the same period. The objective of the current modeling work was mainly to apply the UAM-AERO mesoscale model in the eastern Mediterranean in order to assess the performed field campaigns and determine that the applied mesoscale model is fit for this purpose. Comparison of the modeling results with measured data was performed for a number of gaseous and aerosol species. The UAM-AERO model underestimates the PM10 measured concentrations during summer and winter campaigns. Discrepancies between modeled and measured data are attributed to unresolved particulate matter emissions. Particulate matter in the area is mainly composed by sulphate, sea salt and crustal materials, and with significant amounts of nitrate, ammonium and organics. During winter the particulate matter and oxidant concentrations were lower than the summer values

Modulation of human macrophage responses to mycobacterium tuberculosis by silver nanoparticles of different size and surface modification

Exposure to silver nanoparticles (AgNP) used in consumer products carries potential health risks including increased susceptibility to infectious pathogens. Systematic assessments of antimicrobial macrophage immune responses in the context of AgNP exposure are important because uptake of AgNP by macrophages may lead to alterations of innate immune cell functions. In this study we examined the effects of exposure to AgNP with different particle sizes (20 and 110 nm diameters) and surface chemistry (citrate or polyvinlypyrrolidone capping) on cellular toxicity and innate immune responses against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) by human monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM). Exposures of MDM to AgNP significantly reduced cellular viability, increased IL8 and decreased IL10 mRNA expression. Exposure of M.tb-infected MDM to AgNP suppressed M.tb-induced expression of IL1B, IL10, and TNFA mRNA. Furthermore, M.tb-induced IL-1β, a cytokine critical for host resistance to M.tb, was inhibited by AgNP but not by carbon black particles indicating that the observed immunosuppressive effects of AgNP are particle specific. Suppressive effects of AgNP on the M.tb-induced host immune responses were in part due to AgNP-mediated interferences with the TLR signaling pathways that culminate in the activation of the transcription factor NF-κB. AgNP exposure suppressed M.tb-induced expression of a subset of NF-κB mediated genes (CSF2, CSF3, IFNG, IL1A, IL1B, IL6, IL10, TNFA, NFKB1A). In addition, AgNP exposure increased the expression of HSPA1A mRNA and the corresponding stress-induced Hsp72 protein. Up-regulation of Hsp72 by AgNP can suppress M.tb-induced NF-κB activation and host immune responses. The observed ability of AgNP to modulate infectious pathogen-induced immune responses has important public health implications

The GATA1s isoform is normally down-regulated during terminal haematopoietic differentiation and over-expression leads to failure to repress MYB, CCND2 and SKI during erythroid differentiation of K562 cells

Background: Although GATA1 is one of the most extensively studied haematopoietic transcription factors little is currently known about the physiological functions of its naturally occurring isoforms GATA1s and GATA1FL in humans—particularly whether the isoforms have distinct roles in different lineages and whether they have non-redundant roles in haematopoietic differentiation. As well as being of general interest to understanding of haematopoiesis, GATA1 isoform biology is important for children with Down syndrome associated acute megakaryoblastic leukaemia (DS-AMKL) where GATA1FL mutations are an essential driver for disease pathogenesis. <p/>Methods: Human primary cells and cell lines were analyzed using GATA1 isoform specific PCR. K562 cells expressing GATA1s or GATA1FL transgenes were used to model the effects of the two isoforms on in vitro haematopoietic differentiation. <p/>Results: We found no evidence for lineage specific use of GATA1 isoforms; however GATA1s transcripts, but not GATA1FL transcripts, are down-regulated during in vitro induction of terminal megakaryocytic and erythroid differentiation in the cell line K562. In addition, transgenic K562-GATA1s and K562-GATA1FL cells have distinct gene expression profiles both in steady state and during terminal erythroid differentiation, with GATA1s expression characterised by lack of repression of MYB, CCND2 and SKI. <p/>Conclusions: These findings support the theory that the GATA1s isoform plays a role in the maintenance of proliferative multipotent megakaryocyte-erythroid precursor cells and must be down-regulated prior to terminal differentiation. In addition our data suggest that SKI may be a potential therapeutic target for the treatment of children with DS-AMKL

Risk factors for race-day fatality in flat racing Thoroughbreds in Great Britain (2000 to 2013)

A key focus of the racing industry is to reduce the number of race-day events where horses die suddenly or are euthanased due to catastrophic injury. The objective of this study was therefore to determine risk factors for race-day fatalities in Thoroughbred racehorses, using a cohort of all horses participating in flat racing in Great Britain between 2000 and 2013. Horse-, race- and course-level data were collected and combined with all race-day fatalities, recorded by racecourse veterinarians in a central database. Associations between exposure variables and fatality were assessed using logistic regression analyses for (1) all starts in the dataset and (2) starts made on turf surfaces only. There were 806,764 starts in total, of which 548,571 were on turf surfaces. A total of 610 fatalities were recorded; 377 (61.8%) on turf. In both regression models, increased firmness of the going, increasing racing distance, increasing average horse performance, first year of racing and wearing eye cover for the first time all increased the odds of fatality. Generally, the odds of fatality also increased with increasing horse age whereas increasing number of previous starts reduced fatality odds. In the ‘all starts’ model, horses racing in an auction race were at 1.46 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06–2.01) times the odds of fatality compared with horses not racing in this race type. In the turf starts model, horses racing in Group 1 races were at 3.19 (95% CI 1.71–5.93) times the odds of fatality compared with horses not racing in this race type. Identification of novel risk factors including wearing eye cover and race type will help to inform strategies to further reduce the rate of fatality in flat racing horses, enhancing horse and jockey welfare and safety

Event-by-event fluctuations of the kaon to pion ratio in central Pb+Pb collisions at 158 GeV per Nucleon

We present the first measurement of fluctuations from event to event in the production of strange particles in collisions of heavy nuclei. The ratio of charged kaons to charged pions is determined for individual central Pb+Pb collisions. After accounting for the fluctuations due to detector resolution and finite number statistics we derive an upper limit on genuine non-statistical fluctuations, perhaps related to a first or second order QCD phase transition. Such fluctuations are shown to be very small.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Results on correlations and fluctuations from NA49

The large acceptance and high momentum resolution as well as the significant particle identification capabilities of the NA49 experiment at the CERN SPS allow for a broad study of fluctuations and correlations in hadronic interactions. In the first part recent results on event-by-event charge and p_t fluctuations are presented. Charge fluctuations in central Pb+Pb reactions are investigated at three different beam energies (40, 80, and 158 AGeV), while for the p_t fluctuations the focus is put on the system size dependence at 158 AGeV. In the second part recent results on Bose Einstein correlations of h-h- pairs in minimum bias Pb+Pb reactions at 40 and 158 AGeV, as well as of K+K+ and K-K- pairs in central Pb+Pb collisions at 158 AGeV are shown. Additionally, other types of two particle correlations, namely pi p, Lambda p, and Lambda Lambda correlations, have been measured by the NA49 experiment. Finally, results on the energy and system size dependence of deuteron coalescence are discussed.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figures, Presented at Quark Matter 2002, Nantes, France, Corrected error in Eq.