Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration

Monitoring the implementation of emission commitments under the Paris agreement relies on accurate estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes. Here, we assimilate a 21st century observation-based time series of woody vegetation carbon densities into a bookkeeping model (BKM). This approach allows us to disentangle the observation-based carbon fluxes by terrestrial woody vegetation into anthropogenic and environmental contributions. Estimated emissions (from land-use and land cover changes) between 2000 and 2019 amount to 1.4 PgC yr−1, reducing the difference to other carbon cycle model estimates by up to 88% compared to previous estimates with the BKM (without the data assimilation). Our estimates suggest that the global woody vegetation carbon sink due to environmental processes (1.5 PgC yr−1) is weaker and more susceptible to interannual variations and extreme events than estimated by state-of-the-art process-based carbon cycle models. These findings highlight the need to advance model-data integration to improve estimates of the terrestrial carbon cycle under the Global Stocktake

Land-use change emissions based on high-resolution activity data substantially lower than previously estimated

Land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) contributed around one third to the cumulative, anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2019. Despite its great importance, estimates of the net CO 2 fluxes from LULCC (E LUC ) have high uncertainties, compared to other components of the global carbon cycle. One major source of uncertainty roots in the underlying LULCC forcing data. In this study, we implemented a new high-resolution LULCC dataset (HILDA + ) in a bookkeeping model (BLUE) and compared the results to estimates from simulations based on LUH2, which is the LULCC dataset most commonly used in global carbon cycle models. Compared to LUH2-based estimates, results based on HILDA + show lower total E LUC (global mean difference 1960–2019: 541 TgC yr ⁻¹ , 65%) and large spatial and temporal differences in component fluxes (e.g. CO 2 fluxes from deforestation). In general, the congruence of component fluxes is higher in the mid-latitudes compared to tropical and subtropical regions, which is to some degree explained with the different implementations of shifting cultivation in the underlying LULCC datasets. However, little agreement is reached on the trend of the last decade between E LUC estimates based on the two LULCC reconstructions. Globally and in many regions, E LUC estimates based on HILDA + have decreasing trends, whereas estimates based on LUH2 indicate an increase. Furthermore, we analyzed the effect of different resolutions on E LUC estimates. By comparing estimates from simulations at 0.01 ∘ and 0.25 ∘ resolution, we find that component fluxes of estimates based on the coarser resolution tend to be larger compared to estimates based on the finer resolution, both in terms of sources and sinks (global mean difference 1960–2019: 36 TgC yr ⁻¹, 96%). The reason for these differences are successive transitions: these are not adequately represented at coarser resolution, which has the effect that—despite capturing the same extent of transition areas—overall less area remains pristine at the coarser resolution compared to the finer resolution

Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration

Monitoring the implementation of emission commitments under the Paris agreement relies on accurate estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes. Here, we assimilate a 21st century observation-based time series of woody vegetation carbon densities into a bookkeeping model (BKM). This approach allows us to disentangle the observation-based carbon fluxes by terrestrial woody vegetation into anthropogenic and environmental contributions. Estimated emissions (from land-use and land cover changes) between 2000 and 2019 amount to 1.4 PgC yr −1 , reducing the difference to other carbon cycle model estimates by up to 88% compared to previous estimates with the BKM (without the data assimilation). Our estimates suggest that the global woody vegetation carbon sink due to environmental processes (1.5 PgC yr −1 ) is weaker and more susceptible to interannual variations and extreme events than estimated by state-of-the-art process-based carbon cycle models. These findings highlight the need to advance model-data integration to improve estimates of the terrestrial carbon cycle under the Global Stocktake

Reducing bias in auditory duration reproduction by integrating the reproduced signal

Duration estimation is known to be far from veridical and to differ for sensory estimates and motor reproduction. To investigate how these differential estimates are integrated for estimating or reproducing a duration and to examine sensorimotor biases in duration comparison and reproduction tasks, we compared estimation biases and variances among three different duration estimation tasks: perceptual comparison, motor reproduction, and auditory reproduction (i.e. a combined perceptual-motor task). We found consistent overestimation in both motor and perceptual-motor auditory reproduction tasks, and the least overestimation in the comparison task. More interestingly, compared to pure motor reproduction, the overestimation bias was reduced in the auditory reproduction task, due to the additional reproduced auditory signal. We further manipulated the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the feedback/comparison tones to examine the changes in estimation biases and variances. Considering perceptual and motor biases as two independent components, we applied the reliability-based model, which successfully predicted the biases in auditory reproduction. Our findings thus provide behavioral evidence of how the brain combines motor and perceptual information together to reduce duration estimation biases and improve estimation reliability

Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

This is the final version. Available on open access from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this recordCode availability; The source code used to produce the core LUH2 datasets and the LUH2-GCB datasets, along with the sources and citations of necessary inputs, are archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3954113 (Chini et al., 2020a).Data availability: The data produced in this study are archived and publicly available at the NASA Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center: https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851 (Chini et al, 2020b).Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-The-Art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100g000gkm2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77g000gkm2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.NASAUS Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental ResearchEuropean Union Horizon 202

Accurate ab initio spin densities

We present an approach for the calculation of spin density distributions for molecules that require very large active spaces for a qualitatively correct description of their electronic structure. Our approach is based on the density-matrix renormalization group (DMRG) algorithm to calculate the spin density matrix elements as basic quantity for the spatially resolved spin density distribution. The spin density matrix elements are directly determined from the second-quantized elementary operators optimized by the DMRG algorithm. As an analytic convergence criterion for the spin density distribution, we employ our recently developed sampling-reconstruction scheme [J. Chem. Phys. 2011, 134, 224101] to build an accurate complete-active-space configuration-interaction (CASCI) wave function from the optimized matrix product states. The spin density matrix elements can then also be determined as an expectation value employing the reconstructed wave function expansion. Furthermore, the explicit reconstruction of a CASCI-type wave function provides insights into chemically interesting features of the molecule under study such as the distribution of $\alpha$- and $\beta$-electrons in terms of Slater determinants, CI coefficients, and natural orbitals. The methodology is applied to an iron nitrosyl complex which we have identified as a challenging system for standard approaches [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2011, 7, 2740].Comment: 37 pages, 13 figure

Hydrodynamic interactions in colloidal ferrofluids: A lattice Boltzmann study

We use lattice Boltzmann simulations, in conjunction with Ewald summation methods, to investigate the role of hydrodynamic interactions in colloidal suspensions of dipolar particles, such as ferrofluids. Our work addresses volume fractions $\phi$ of up to 0.20 and dimensionless dipolar interaction parameters $\lambda$ of up to 8. We compare quantitatively with Brownian dynamics simulations, in which many-body hydrodynamic interactions are absent. Monte Carlo data are also used to check the accuracy of static properties measured with the lattice Boltzmann technique. At equilibrium, hydrodynamic interactions slow down both the long-time and the short-time decays of the intermediate scattering function $S(q,t)$, for wavevectors close to the peak of the static structure factor $S(q)$, by a factor of roughly two. The long-time slowing is diminished at high interaction strengths whereas the short-time slowing (quantified via the hydrodynamic factor $H(q)$) is less affected by the dipolar interactions, despite their strong effect on the pair distribution function arising from cluster formation. Cluster formation is also studied in transient data following a quench from $\lambda = 0$; hydrodynamic interactions slow the formation rate, again by a factor of roughly two

A multi-data assessment of land use and land cover emissions from Brazil during 2000–2019

This is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available upon reasonable request from the authors.Brazil is currently the largest contributor of land use and land cover change (LULCC) carbon dioxide net emissions worldwide, representing 17%-29% of the global total. There is, however, a lack of agreement among different methodologies on the magnitude and trends in LULCC emissions and their geographic distribution. Here we perform an evaluation of LULCC datasets for Brazil, including those used in the annual global carbon budget (GCB), and national Brazilian assessments over the period 2000-2018. Results show that the latest global HYDE 3.3 LULCC dataset, based on new FAO inventory estimates and multi-annual ESA CCI satellite-based land cover maps, can represent the observed spatial variation in LULCC over the last decades, representing an improvement on the HYDE 3.2 data previously used in GCB. However, the magnitude of LULCC assessed with HYDE 3.3 is lower than estimates based on MapBiomas. We use HYDE 3.3 and MapBiomas as input to a global bookkeeping model (bookkeeping of land use emission, BLUE) and a process-based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JULES-ES) to determine Brazil's LULCC emissions over the period 2000-2019. Results show mean annual LULCC emissions of 0.1-0.4 PgC yr-1, compared with 0.1-0.24 PgC yr-1 reported by the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation System of land use changes and forest sector (SEEG/LULUCF) and by FAO in its latest assessment of deforestation emissions in Brazil. Both JULES-ES and BLUE now simulate a slowdown in emissions after 2004 (-0.006 and -0.004 PgC yr-2 with HYDE 3.3, -0.014 and -0.016 PgC yr-2 with MapBiomas, respectively), in agreement with the Brazilian INPE-EM, global Houghton and Nassikas book-keeping models, FAO and as reported in the 4th national greenhouse gas inventories. The inclusion of Earth observation data has improved spatial representation of LULCC in HYDE and thus model capability to simulate Brazil's LULCC emissions. This will likely contribute to reduce uncertainty in global LULCC emissions, and thus better constrains GCB assessments

Recovery of release cloud from laser shock-loaded graphite and hydrocarbon targets: in search of diamonds

This work presents first insights into the dynamics of free-surface release clouds from dynamically compressed polystyrene and pyrolytic graphite at pressures up to 200 GPa, where they transform into diamond or lonsdaleite, respectively. These ejecta clouds are released into either vacuum or various types of catcher systems, and are monitored with high-speed recordings (frame rates up to 10 MHz). Molecular dynamics simulations are used to give insights to the rate of diamond preservation throughout the free expansion and the catcher impact process, highlighting the challenges of diamond retrieval. Raman spectroscopy data show graphitic signatures on a catcher plate confirming that the shock-compressed PS is transformed. First electron microscopy analyses of solid catcher plates yield an outstanding number of different spherical-like objects in the size range between ten(s) up to hundreds of nanometres, which are one type of two potential diamond candidates identified. The origin of some objects can unambiguously be assigned, while the history of others remains speculative