856 research outputs found
Computing the distribution of the maximum in balls-and-boxes problems, with application to clusters of disease cases
We present a rapid method for the exact calculation of the cumulative
distribution function of the maximum of multinomially distributed random
variables. The method runs in time , where is the desired maximum
and is the number of variables. We apply the method to the analysis of two
situations where an apparent clustering of cases of a disease in some locality
has raised the possibility that the disease might be communicable, and this
possibility has been discussed in the recent literature. We conclude that one
of these clusters may be explained on purely random grounds, whereas the other
may not
Temporal and dimensional effects in evolutionary graph theory
The spread in time of a mutation through a population is studied analytically
and computationally in fully-connected networks and on spatial lattices. The
time, t_*, for a favourable mutation to dominate scales with population size N
as N^{(D+1)/D} in D-dimensional hypercubic lattices and as N ln N in
fully-connected graphs. It is shown that the surface of the interface between
mutants and non-mutants is crucial in predicting the dynamics of the system.
Network topology has a significant effect on the equilibrium fitness of a
simple population model incorporating multiple mutations and sexual
reproduction. Includes supplementary information.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures Replaced after final round of peer revie
An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity
We present novel analytical results about ecosystem species diversity that
stem from a proposed coarse grained neutral model based on birth-death
processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding
and synthesizing both theoretical results of ecological neutral theory and
empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. Neutral model of
biodiversity deals with ecosystems in the same trophic level where per-capita
vital rates are assumed to be species-independent. Close-form analytical
solutions for neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where
the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results
pertain: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the
ecosystem both in transient and stationary states; the n-points connected time
correlation function; and the survival probability, definned as the
distribution of time-spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled
from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data
from a estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the
ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model,
with implications on biodiversity and conservation biology.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures. To appear in Journal of Statistichal Mechanic
Universality of weak selection
Weak selection, which means a phenotype is slightly advantageous over
another, is an important limiting case in evolutionary biology. Recently it has
been introduced into evolutionary game theory. In evolutionary game dynamics,
the probability to be imitated or to reproduce depends on the performance in a
game. The influence of the game on the stochastic dynamics in finite
populations is governed by the intensity of selection. In many models of both
unstructured and structured populations, a key assumption allowing analytical
calculations is weak selection, which means that all individuals perform
approximately equally well. In the weak selection limit many different
microscopic evolutionary models have the same or similar properties. How
universal is weak selection for those microscopic evolutionary processes? We
answer this question by investigating the fixation probability and the average
fixation time not only up to linear, but also up to higher orders in selection
intensity. We find universal higher order expansions, which allow a rescaling
of the selection intensity. With this, we can identify specific models which
violate (linear) weak selection results, such as the one--third rule of
coordination games in finite but large populations.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review
Pupil mobility, attainment and progress in secondary school
This paper is the second of two articles arising from a study of the association between pupil mobility and attainment in national tests and examinations in an inner London borough. The first article (Strand & Demie, 2006) examined the association of pupil mobility with attainment and progress during primary school. It concluded that pupil mobility had little impact on performance in national tests at age 11, once pupils’ prior attainment at age 7 and other pupil background factors such as age, sex, special educational needs, stage of fluency in English and socio-economic disadvantage were taken into account. The present article reports the results for secondary schools (age 11-16). The results indicate that pupil mobility continues to have a significant negative association with performance in public examinations at age 16, even after including statistical controls for prior attainment at age 11 and other pupil background factors. Possible reasons for the contrasting results across school phases are explored. The implications for policy and further research are discussed
Multi-locus match probability in a finite population: a fundamental difference between the Moran and Wright–Fisher models
Motivation: A fundamental problem in population genetics, which being also of importance to forensic science, is to compute the match probability (MP) that two individuals randomly chosen from a population have identical alleles at a collection of loci. At present, 11–13 unlinked autosomal microsatellite loci are typed for forensic use. In a finite population, the genealogical relationships of individuals can create statistical non-independence of alleles at unlinked loci. However, the so-called product rule, which is used in courts in the USA, computes the MP for multiple unlinked loci by assuming statistical independence, multiplying the one-locus MPs at those loci. Analytically testing the accuracy of the product rule for more than five loci has hitherto remained an open problem
Stochastic slowdown in evolutionary processes
We examine birth--death processes with state dependent transition
probabilities and at least one absorbing boundary. In evolution, this describes
selection acting on two different types in a finite population where
reproductive events occur successively. If the two types have equal fitness the
system performs a random walk. If one type has a fitness advantage it is
favored by selection, which introduces a bias (asymmetry) in the transition
probabilities. How long does it take until advantageous mutants have invaded
and taken over? Surprisingly, we find that the average time of such a process
can increase, even if the mutant type always has a fitness advantage. We
discuss this finding for the Moran process and develop a simplified model which
allows a more intuitive understanding. We show that this effect can occur for
weak but non--vanishing bias (selection) in the state dependent transition
rates and infer the scaling with system size. We also address the Wright-Fisher
model commonly used in population genetics, which shows that this stochastic
slowdown is not restricted to birth-death processes.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publicatio
Evolutionary dynamics on degree-heterogeneous graphs
The evolution of two species with different fitness is investigated on
degree-heterogeneous graphs. The population evolves either by one individual
dying and being replaced by the offspring of a random neighbor (voter model
(VM) dynamics) or by an individual giving birth to an offspring that takes over
a random neighbor node (invasion process (IP) dynamics). The fixation
probability for one species to take over a population of N individuals depends
crucially on the dynamics and on the local environment. Starting with a single
fitter mutant at a node of degree k, the fixation probability is proportional
to k for VM dynamics and to 1/k for IP dynamics.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, 2 column revtex4 format. Revisions in response to
referee comments for publication in PRL. The version on arxiv.org has one
more figure than the published PR
The statistical mechanics of a polygenic characterunder stabilizing selection, mutation and drift
By exploiting an analogy between population genetics and statistical
mechanics, we study the evolution of a polygenic trait under stabilizing
selection, mutation, and genetic drift. This requires us to track only four
macroscopic variables, instead of the distribution of all the allele
frequencies that influence the trait. These macroscopic variables are the
expectations of: the trait mean and its square, the genetic variance, and of a
measure of heterozygosity, and are derived from a generating function that is
in turn derived by maximizing an entropy measure. These four macroscopics are
enough to accurately describe the dynamics of the trait mean and of its genetic
variance (and in principle of any other quantity). Unlike previous approaches
that were based on an infinite series of moments or cumulants, which had to be
truncated arbitrarily, our calculations provide a well-defined approximation
procedure. We apply the framework to abrupt and gradual changes in the optimum,
as well as to changes in the strength of stabilizing selection. Our
approximations are surprisingly accurate, even for systems with as few as 5
loci. We find that when the effects of drift are included, the expected genetic
variance is hardly altered by directional selection, even though it fluctuates
in any particular instance. We also find hysteresis, showing that even after
averaging over the microscopic variables, the macroscopic trajectories retain a
memory of the underlying genetic states.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figure
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