Analysis of Different Types of Regret in Continuous Noisy Optimization

The performance measure of an algorithm is a crucial part of its analysis. The performance can be determined by the study on the convergence rate of the algorithm in question. It is necessary to study some (hopefully convergent) sequence that will measure how "good" is the approximated optimum compared to the real optimum. The concept of Regret is widely used in the bandit literature for assessing the performance of an algorithm. The same concept is also used in the framework of optimization algorithms, sometimes under other names or without a specific name. And the numerical evaluation of convergence rate of noisy algorithms often involves approximations of regrets. We discuss here two types of approximations of Simple Regret used in practice for the evaluation of algorithms for noisy optimization. We use specific algorithms of different nature and the noisy sphere function to show the following results. The approximation of Simple Regret, termed here Approximate Simple Regret, used in some optimization testbeds, fails to estimate the Simple Regret convergence rate. We also discuss a recent new approximation of Simple Regret, that we term Robust Simple Regret, and show its advantages and disadvantages.Comment: Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference 2016, Jul 2016, Denver, United States. 201

Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru.

During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally

Densidade Da Jaguatirica Em Um Ambiente Semiárido No Nordeste Do Brasil

Ocelots play a key role in ecological communities as mesopredators affecting the lower trophic level and other mesopredators. They show great variability in ecological traits across their distribution, but knowledge of this species is missing in several regions where it occurs. Here, we present the first study of ocelot in the Brazilian semiarid of Caatinga. Arid habitats might keep carnivore population density low and therefore vulnerable to environmental shocks and to human-induced changes, at risk of local extinction. To assess their population status, we used camera traps between September 2009 and January 2010. We estimated the density of ocelots using a spatially explicit capture-recapture method (SECR) to be 3.16 ± 0.46 individuals per 100 km2. This is a low-density estimate for ocelots, which might reflect the harsh conditions of the arid habitat. A longer population study of the ocelot can answer if this low population density is enough for a long-term persistence of this species in this and other arid environments. © 2016, Universidade Estadual de Campinas UNICAMP. All rights reserved.16

Current diversity of Phytophthora infestans infecting cultivated potato in the Peruvian Andes

Late blight caused by P. infestans is the most devastating disease of potato worldwide. To understand the current P. infestans population structure in the Peruvian Andes, 701 single-lesion samples were collected from cultivated potato in different agroecological zones at 2016-2017. Genetic diversity was analyzed using the 12-plex SSR markers kit and mtADN. Phenotypic diversity was characterized for mating type, metalaxyl resistance and virulence. SSR analysis showed that population consists of EC-1 and PE-3 clonal lineages variants, that have the mtADN IIa and Ia, respectively. All isolates were A1 mating type. 94% of the EC-1 variant isolates were resistant to metalaxil, whereas the sensitive proportion (47%) in the PE-3 variants was bigger than the resistant (35%). Furthermore, virulence assays detected 41 complex physiological races from 142 selected isolates, the most frequent physiological race was 1,3,4,7,10,11 in both EC-1 and PE-3 variants. Phylogenetic analysis evidenced that isolates share identical SSR genotypes and physiological races in distant regions, that suggests that migration could have occurred. Additionally, no detection of A2 mating type indicate that population reproduction must be asexual. EC-1 clonal lineage continues to dominate across the Peruvian Andes, since 91% of the isolates were variants of this clonal lineage. The US-1 clonal lineage reported at 2001, appears to be displaced as it was no longer detected infecting cultivated potato