Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Autonomic response to walk tests is useful for assessing outcome measures in people with multiple sclerosis

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between changes in the autonomic control of cardiorespiratory system induced by walk tests and outcome measures in people with Multiple Sclerosis (pwMS). Methods: Electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings of 148 people with Relapsing-Remitting MS (RRMS) and 58 with Secondary Progressive MS (SPMS) were acquired using a wearable device before, during, and after walk test performance from a total of 386 periodical clinical visits. A subset of 90 participants repeated a walk test at home. Various MS-related symptoms, including fatigue, disability, and walking capacity were evaluated at each clinical visit, while heart rate variability (HRV) and ECG-derived respiration (EDR) were analyzed to assess autonomic nervous system (ANS) function. Statistical tests were conducted to assess differences in ANS control between pwMS grouped based on the phenotype or the severity of MS-related symptoms. Furthermore, correlation coefficients (r) were calculated to assess the association between the most significant ANS parameters and MS-outcome measures. Results: People with SPMS, compared to RRMS, reached higher mean heart rate (HRM) values during walk test, and larger sympathovagal balance after test performance. Furthermore, pwMS who were able to adjust their HRM and ventilatory values, such as respiratory rate and standard deviation of the ECG-derived respiration, were associated with better clinical outcomes. Correlation analyses showed weak associations between ANS parameters and clinical outcomes when the Multiple Sclerosis phenotype is not taken into account. Blunted autonomic response, in particular HRM reactivity, was related with worse walking capacity, yielding r = 0.36 r = 0.29 (RRMS) and r > 0.5 (SPMS). A positive strong correlation r > 0.7 r > 0.65 between cardiorespiratory parameters derived at hospital and at home was also found. Conclusion: Autonomic function, as measured by HRV, differs according to MS phenotype. Autonomic response to walk tests may be useful for assessing clinical outcomes, mainly in the progressive stage of MS. Participants with larger changes in HRM are able to walk longer distance, while reduced ventilatory function during and after walk test performance is associated with higher fatigue and disability severity scores. Monitoring of disorder severity could also be feasible using ECG-derived cardiac and respiratory parameters recorded with a wearable device at home

Redefining the "carrier" state for foot-and-mouth disease from the dynamics of virus persistence in endemically affected cattle populations

The foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) “carrier” state was defined by van Bekkum in 1959. It was based on the recovery of infectious virus 28 days or more post infection and has been a useful construct for experimental studies. Using historic data from 1,107 cattle, collected as part of a population based study of endemic FMD in 2000, we developed a mixed effects logistic regression model to predict the probability of recovering viable FMDV by probang and culture, conditional on the animal’s age and time since last reported outbreak. We constructed a second set of models to predict the probability of an animal being probang positive given its antibody response in three common non-structural protein (NSP) ELISAs and its age. We argue that, in natural ecological settings, the current definition of a ”carrier” fails to capture the dynamics of either persistence of the virus (as measured by recovery using probangs) or the uncertainty in transmission from such animals that the term implies. In these respects it is not particularly useful. We therefore propose the first predictive statistical models for identifying persistently infected cattle in an endemic setting that captures some of the dynamics of the probability of persistence. Furthermore, we provide a set of predictive tools to use alongside NSP ELISAs to help target persistently infected cattle

Cause-Specific Excess Mortality in Siblings of Patients Co-Infected with HIV and Hepatitis C Virus

BACKGROUND: Co-infection with hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals is associated with 3- to 4-fold higher mortality among these patients' siblings, compared with siblings of mono-infected HIV-patients or population controls. This indicates that risk factors shared by family members partially account for the excess mortality of HIV/HCV-co-infected patients. We aimed to explore the causes of death contributing to the excess sibling mortality. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We retrieved causes of death from the Danish National Registry of Deaths and estimated cause-specific excess mortality rates (EMR) for siblings of HIV/HCV-co-infected individuals (n = 436) and siblings of HIV mono-infected individuals (n = 1837) compared with siblings of population controls (n = 281,221). Siblings of HIV/HCV-co-infected individuals had an all-cause EMR of 3.03 (95% CI, 1.56-4.50) per 1,000 person-years, compared with siblings of matched population controls. Substance abuse-related deaths contributed most to the elevated mortality among siblings [EMR = 2.25 (1.09-3.40)] followed by unnatural deaths [EMR = 0.67 (-0.05-1.39)]. No siblings of HIV/HCV co-infected patients had a liver-related diagnosis as underlying cause of death. Siblings of HIV-mono-infected individuals had an all-cause EMR of 0.60 (0.16-1.05) compared with siblings of controls. This modest excess mortality was due to deaths from an unknown cause [EMR = 0.28 (0.07-0.48)], deaths from substance abuse [EMR = 0.19 (-0.04-0.43)], and unnatural deaths [EMR = 0.18 (-0.06-0.42)]. CONCLUSIONS: HCV co-infection among HIV-infected patients was a strong marker for family-related mortality due to substance abuse and other unnatural causes. To reduce morbidity and mortality in HIV/HCV-co-infected patients, the advances in antiviral treatment of HCV should be accompanied by continued focus on interventions targeted at substance abuse-related risk factors

Controlled Collisions for Multiparticle Entanglement of Optically Trapped Atoms

Entanglement lies at the heart of quantum mechanics and in recent years has been identified as an essential resource for quantum information processing and computation. Creating highly entangled multi-particle states is therefore one of the most challenging goals of modern experimental quantum mechanics, touching fundamental questions as well as practical applications. Here we report on the experimental realization of controlled collisions between individual neighbouring neutral atoms trapped in the periodic potential of an optical lattice. These controlled interactions act as an array of quantum gates between neighbouring atoms in the lattice and their massively parallel operation allows the creation of highly entangled states in a single operational step, independent of the size of the system. In the experiment, we observe a coherent entangling-disentangling evolution in the many-body system depending on the phase shift acquired during the collision between neighbouring atoms. This dynamics is indicative of highly entangled many-body states that present novel opportunities for theory and experiment.Comment: 17 pages, including 5 figures, accepted for publication in Natur

Rapid Growth Reduces Cold Resistance: Evidence from Latitudinal Variation in Growth Rate, Cold Resistance and Stress Proteins

Background: Physiological costs of rapid growth may contribute to the observation that organisms typically grow at submaximal rates. Although, it has been hypothesized that faster growing individuals would do worse in dealing with suboptimal temperatures, this type of cost has never been explored empirically. Furthermore, the mechanistic basis of the physiological costs of rapid growth is largely unexplored. Methodology/Principal Finding: Larvae of the damselfly Ischnura elegans from two univoltine northern and two multivoltine southern populations were reared at three temperatures and after emergence given a cold shock. Cold resistance, measured by chill coma recovery times in the adult stage, was lower in the southern populations. The faster larval growth rates in the southern populations contributed to this latitudinal pattern in cold resistance. In accordance with their assumed role in cold resistance, Hsp70 levels were lower in the southern populations, and faster growing larvae had lower Hsp70 levels. Yet, individual variation in Hsp70 levels did not explain variation in cold resistance. Conclusions/Significance: We provide evidence for a novel cost of rapid growth: reduced cold resistance. Our results indicate that the reduced cold resistance in southern populations of animals that change voltinism along the latitudinal gradient may not entirely be explained by thermal selection per se but also by the costs of time constraint-induced higher growth rates. This also illustrates that stressors imposed in the larval stage may carry over and shape fitness in the adul

Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms in IL1B and the Risk of Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Danish Case-Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Interleukin-1B (IL-1B) is a key pro-inflammatory cytokine that has been associated with the development of atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction. However, the prospective associations between functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in IL1B and incident acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have not been thoroughly investigated. The aims of this study were to examine the associations between individual SNPs in and SNP haplotypes of the promoter region of IL1B and incident ACS in a prospective study. Furthermore, we wanted to explore potential interactions with other risk factors for ACS on an additive scale. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The present study was based on the Danish prospective study Diet, Cancer and Health comprising more than 57 000 participants aged 50-64 at baseline. During a median follow-up of 7.2 years we identified 989 cases of incident ACS (755 men and 234 women). All cases were validated by review of medical records, and information on covariates was collected by study technicians. The study was conducted according to a case-cohort study design including ACS cases and a sex-stratified sub cohort of 1663 participants drawn randomly from the entire cohort. Weighted Cox proportional hazard models with age as time axis were used in the statistical analyses. Individual IL1B SNPs, SNP haplotypes, or haplotype combinations were not significantly associated with incident ACS, and, likewise, we found no evidence of interaction on an additive scale between IL1B haplotypes and risk factors, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Genetic variation in the promoter region of IL1B may not be associated with incident ACS in men or women above the age of 50 years

Efficacy of a referral and physical activity program for survivors of prostate cancer [ENGAGE]: Rationale and design for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background: Despite evidence that physical activity improves the health and well-being of prostate cancer survivors, many men do not engage in sufficient levels of activity. The primary aim of this study (ENGAGE) is to determine the efficacy of a referral and physical activity program among survivors of prostate cancer, in terms of increasing participation in physical activity. Secondary aims are to determine the effects of the physical activity program on psychological well-being, quality of life and objective physical functioning. The influence of individual and environmental mediators on participation in physical activity will also be determined.Methods/Design: This study is a cluster randomised controlled trial. Clinicians of prostate cancer survivors will be randomised into either the intervention or control condition. Clinicians in the intervention condition will refer eligible patients (n = 110) to participate in an exercise program, comprising 12 weeks of supervised exercise sessions and unsupervised physical activity. Clinicians allocated to the control condition will provide usual care to eligible patients (n = 110), which does not involve the recommendation of the physical activity program. Participants will be assessed at baseline, 12 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months on physical activity, quality of life, anxiety, depression, self-efficacy, outcome expectations, goals, and socio-structural factors.Discussion: The findings of this study have implications for clinicians and patients with different cancer types or other chronic health conditions. It will contribute to our understanding on the potential impact of clinicians promoting physical activity to patients and the long term health benefits of participating in physical activity programs.<br /