Essays on the challenges of global land change science

This dissertation considers selected economic aspects of global land change science. The first set of three papers analyses different aspects of the sustainability regulation within the European biofuel policy. The first paper analyses the greenhouse gas balance of biofuels when taking into account direct land use change. The second paper revises the aspect of indirect land use change by evaluating approaches for quantifying indirect land use change and related policy proposals. The third paper analyses policy instruments for reducing emissions from land use change caused by biofuels in a case study for Sumatra and Kalimantan based on a carbon map. The forth paper analyzes the heterogeneity in agricultural productivity of Brazilian agriculture by applying a latent common factor model that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity. The fifth paper analyses the suitability of satellite based night light data as a proxy for regional growth in GDP

Scenarios for an impact assessment of global bioeconomy strategies: Results from a co-design process

The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy. To explore potential outcomes of bioeconomy strategies assuming different future pathways, a scenario analysis is a tool to inform decision-makers about policy impacts and trade-offs. The inter- and transdisciplinary research project "BioNex - The future of the biomass nexus" is the first project to develop bioeconomy scenarios together with stakeholders from politics, industry, and civil society in an iterative co-design process. As a result, three storylines describing diverging potential global futures are developed and quantified: Towards sustainability, business as usual, and towards resource depletion. The futures are driven by different assumptions on climate policy, cropland expansion, productivity growth in agriculture, prices of fossil energy, and consumption behaviour. Additionally, in the co-design process, three bioeconomy policies are developed: policy as usual, stronger development of the bioeconomy, and no policies. Besides presenting the results of the stakeholder workshops, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of a stakeholder approach in terms of policy-oriented research. According to the experience made within this study, it provides valuable insights for researchers and funding authorities they can use to optimise the employment of stakeholder-based research approaches

Health impacts of extreme weather events – Cascading risks in a changing climate

Background: Extreme weather events represent one of the most tangible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. They have increased in number and severity and a further increase is expected. This is accompanied by direct and indirect negative consequences for human health. Methods: Flooding events, storms and droughts are analysed here for Germany from a systemic perspective on the basis of a comprehensive literature review. Cascading risks beyond the initial event are also taken into account in order to depict downstream consequences. Results: In addition to the immediate health burdens caused by extreme weather events, such as injuries, long-term consequences such as stress-related mental disorders occur. These stresses particularly affect certain vulnerable groups, e.g. older persons, children, pregnant women or first responders. Conclusions: A look at the cascading risks described in the international literature allows us to develop precautionary measures for adaptation to the consequences of climate change. Many adaptation measures protect against different risks at the same time. In addition to planning measures, these include, above all, increasing the population's ability to protect itself through knowledge and strengthening of social networks. This is part of a series of articles that constitute the German Status Report on Climate Change and Health 2023

Gesundheitliche Auswirkungen von Extremwetterereignissen – Risikokaskaden im anthropogenen Klimawandel

Hintergrund: Extremwetterereignisse stellen eine der greifbarsten Auswirkungen des anthropogenen Klimawandels dar. Sie haben in Zahl und Ausprägung zugenommen und eine weitere Zunahme wird erwartet. Damit gehen unmittelbare und mittelbare negative Folgen für die menschliche Gesundheit einher. Methode: Überschwemmungsereignisse, Stürme und Dürren werden hier für Deutschland aus systemischer Perspektive auf Basis einer umfassenden Literaturrecherche analysiert, wobei über das konkrete Schadensereignis hinausgehende Risikokaskaden in den Blick genommen werden, um auch nachgelagerte Folgen darzustellen. Ergebnisse: Neben den unmittelbaren gesundheitlichen Belastungen durch Extremwetterereignisse, wie Verletzungen, treten langfristige Folgen, wie psychische Belastungsstörungen, auf. Diese Belastungen betreffen bestimmte vulnerable Gruppen, z. B. ältere Menschen, Kinder, Schwangere oder Einsatzkräfte, in besonderem Maße. Schlussfolgerungen: Der Blick auf die in der internationalen Literatur beschriebenen Risikokaskaden erlaubt es, Vorsorgemaßnahmen für die Anpassung an die Folgen des Klimawandels zu entwickeln. Viele Anpassungsmaßnahmen schützen dabei vor unterschiedlichen Risiken gleichzeitig. Neben planerischen Maßnahmen ist dies vor allem auch die Erhöhung der Selbstschutzfähigkeit in der Bevölkerung durch Wissen und die Stärkung sozialer Netzwerke. Dieser Artikel ist Teil der Beitragsreihe zum Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel und Gesundheit 202

Gesundheitliche Auswirkungen von Extremwetterereignissen – Risikokaskaden im anthropogenen Klimawandel

Hintergrund: Extremwetterereignisse stellen eine der greifbarsten Auswirkungen des anthropogenen Klimawandels dar. Sie haben in Zahl und Ausprägung zugenommen und eine weitere Zunahme wird erwartet. Damit gehen unmittelbare und mittelbare negative Folgen für die menschliche Gesundheit einher. Methode: Überschwemmungsereignisse, Stürme und Dürren werden hier für Deutschland aus systemischer Perspektive auf Basis einer umfassenden Literaturrecherche analysiert, wobei über das konkrete Schadensereignis hinausgehende Risikokaskaden in den Blick genommen werden, um auch nachgelagerte Folgen darzustellen. Ergebnisse: Neben den unmittelbaren gesundheitlichen Belastungen durch Extremwetterereignisse, wie Verletzungen, treten langfristige Folgen, wie psychische Belastungsstörungen, auf. Diese Belastungen betreffen bestimmte vulnerable Gruppen, z. B. ältere Menschen, Kinder, Schwangere oder Einsatzkräfte, in besonderem Maße. Schlussfolgerungen: Der Blick auf die in der internationalen Literatur beschriebenen Risikokaskaden erlaubt es, Vorsorgemaßnahmen für die Anpassung an die Folgen des Klimawandels zu entwickeln. Viele Anpassungsmaßnahmen schützen dabei vor unterschiedlichen Risiken gleichzeitig. Neben planerischen Maßnahmen ist dies vor allem auch die Erhöhung der Selbstschutzfähigkeit in der Bevölkerung durch Wissen und die Stärkung sozialer Netzwerke. Dieser Artikel ist Teil der Beitragsreihe zum Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel und Gesundheit 202

Land Use Change under Biofuel Policies and a Tax on Meat and Dairy Products: Considering Complexity in Agricultural Production Chains Matters

Growing demand for meat and dairy products (MDP), biofuels, and scarcity of agricultural land are drivers of global land use competition. Impacts of policies targeting demand for MDP or biofuels have only been analysed separately. We use the computable general equilibrium model DART-BIO to investigate combined effects, since MDP and biofuel production are closely related via feestock use and co-production of animal feed. We implement four scenarios: (a) a baseline scenario; (b) halving MDP consumption in industrialised countries by a tax; (c) abolishing current biofuel policies; and (d) no exogenous land use change. We find that a MDP tax and exogenous land use change have larger effects on land use and food markets than biofuel policies. International trade is affected in all scenarios. With respect to combined effects of a MDP tax and biofuel policies, we find decreasing biodiesel but increasing bioethanol production. In addition, the MDP tax decreases the impact of biofuel policies on agricultural markets and land use. Our results highlight the importance of a detailed representation of different vegetable oils used in biodiesel production and related by-products. Finally, since the MDP tax increases the use of fossil fuels, the net climate mitigation potentials of such a tax should be investigated further

Extreme weather events cause significant crop yield losses at the farm level in German agriculture

Extreme weather events frequently cause severe crop yield losses, affecting food security and farmers’ incomes. In this paper, we aim to provide a holistic assessment of these impacts across various extreme weather events and multiple crops. More specifically, we estimate and compare the impact of frost, heat, drought and waterlogging on yields of winter wheat, winter barley, winter rapeseed and grain maize production in Germany. We analyse 423,815 farm-level yield observations between 1995 and 2019, and account for extreme weather conditions within critical phenological phases. Furthermore, we monetarize historical yield losses due to extreme weather events on a spatially disaggregated level. We find that drought is a main driver for farm-level grain yield and monetary losses in German agriculture. For instance, a single drought day can reduce winter wheat yields by up to 0.36%. It is estimated that during the period 1995–2019, summer drought led to yield losses in winter wheat, which, on average, caused annual revenues to sink by over 23 million Euro across Germany. We find that the impacts of extreme weather events vary considerably across space and time. For example, only the most important winter rapeseed production region in the North of Germany was prone to winter rapeseed yield losses due to heat during flowering. Moreover, waterlogging and frost are generally less relevant from an economic point of view, but can nevertheless cause crop- and regional-specific damage. Our analysis provides stakeholders with information for weather-related risk management and adaptation strategies.ISSN:0306-9192ISSN:1873-565

Phasing out palm and soy oil biodiesel in the EU: What is the benefit?

Abstract The Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by the European Union (EU) provides an updated framework for the use of renewable energy in the EU transport sector until 2030, and bans the use of biofuels with a high risk of causing indirect land‐use change in high carbon stock areas (high ILUC‐risk criteria). The only biofuel feedstock affected by this criterion is palm oil. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model DART‐BIO for a scenario‐based policy analysis and evaluate a phase‐out of palm oil‐based biodiesel, and an additional phase‐out of soy oil‐based biodiesel in the EU. Our results show that the palm phase‐out has only a relatively small impact on global palm fruit production and total crop land use in tropical and subtropical regions, while the soy phase‐out leads to a comparable stronger decrease in global soy production, and a reduction in total cropland use in soy‐producing regions. Both policies lead to increased oilseed production in the EU. Therefore, farmer in Malaysia and Indonesia face a significantly reduced income. While European farmers profit the most, EU firms and households are confronted with higher expenditures. Finally, this study indicates that unilateral demand‐side regulations for a single good in a single sector is not sufficient for effective environmental protection. Enhanced binding sustainability criteria and certification schemes for the use of all vegetable oils in every sector and industry as well as improved protection schemes for sensible forest areas are necessary