Emptying Water Towers? Impacts of Future Climate and Glacier Change on River Discharge in the Northern Tien Shan, Central Asia

Impacts of projected climate and glacier change on river discharge in five glacierized catchments in the northern Tien Shan, Kazakhstan are investigated using a conceptual hydrological model HBV‐ETH. Regional climate model PRECIS driven by four different GCM‐scenario combinations (HadGEM2.6, HadGEM8.5, A1B using HadCM3Q0 and ECHAM5) is used to develop climate projections. Future changes in glaciation are assessed using the Blatter–Pattyn type higherorder 3D coupled ice flow and mass balance model. All climate scenarios show statistically significant warming in the 21st Century. Neither projects statistically significant change in annual precipitation although HadGEM and HadCM3Q0‐driven scenarios show 20–37% reduction in July–August precipitation in 2076–2095 in comparison with 1980–2005. Glaciers are projected to retreat rapidly until the 2050s and stabilize afterwards except under the HadGEM8.5 scenario where retreat continues. Glaciers are projected to lose 38–50% of their volume and 34–39% of their area. Total river discharge in July–August, is projected to decline in catchments with low (2–4%) glacierization by 20–37%. In catchments with high glacierization (16% and over), no significant changes in summer discharge are expected while spring discharge is projected to increase. In catchments with medium glacierization (10–12%), summer discharge is expected to decline under the less aggressive scenarios while flow is sustained under the most aggressive HadGEM8.5 scenario, which generates stronger melt

Застосування екіпажами оперативних автомобілів універсальних швидкісних стенограм

Purpose: experimentally to check up possibility and efficiency of application of operative cars of universal speed shorthand records of unknown roads crews. Materials and Methods: theoretical analysis and generalization, pedagogical supervisions, pedagogical experiment, methods of mathematical statistics. In research took part 20 professional crews road patrol State Automobile Inspectorate, in all 40 persons, up-diffused on 2 groups for 10 crews: experimental and control. Results: application of methods of universal speed shorthand record of СД an experimental group allowed to shorten time-of-flight of segment of control distance on 7,37%. Conclusion: the results of pedagogical experiment at participation of professional crews road patrol State Automobile Inspectorate on official cars in the contention terms of the real route testify to possibility and efficiency of application of operative cars of the special setting of universal speed shorthand records of unknown roads crews during their professional activity.Цель: экспериментально проверить возможность и эффективность применения экипажами оперативных автомобилей универсальных скоростных стенограмм незнакомых дорог. Материалы и методы: теоретический анализ и обобщение, педагогические наблюдения, педагогический эксперимент, методы математической статистики. В исследовании приняли участие 20 профессиональных экипажей ДПС ГАИ, всего 40 человек, распределенные на 2 группы по 10 экипажей: экспериментальная и контрольная. Результаты: применение экспериментальной группой методики универсальной скоростной стенограммы СД позволило сократить время прохождения отрезка контрольной дистанции на 7,37%. Вывод: результаты педагогического эксперимента при участии профессиональных экипажей ДПС ГАИ на служебных автомобилях в состязательных условиях реальной трассы свидетельствуют о возможности и эффективности применения экипажами оперативных автомобилей специального назначения универсальных скоростных стенограмм незнакомых дорог во время их профессиональной деятельности.Мета: експериментально перевірити можливість та ефективність застосування екіпажами оперативних автомобілів універсальних швидкісних стенограм незнайомих доріг. Матеріали і методи: теоретичний аналіз та узагальнення, педагогічні спостереження, педагогічний експеримент, методи математичної статистики. У дослідженні прийняли участь 20 професійних екіпажів дорожньо-патрульної служби Державної автомобільної інспекції, усього 40 чоловік, розподілені на 2 групи по 10 екіпажів: експериментальна та контрольна. Результати: застосування експериментальною групою методики універсальної швидкісної стенограми СД дозволило скоротити час проходження відрізку контрольної дистанції на 7,37%. Висновок: результати педагогічного експерименту за участі професійних екіпажів дорожньо-патрульної служби Державної автомобільної інспекції на службових автомобілях у змагальних умовах реальної траси свідчать про можливість та ефективність застосування екіпажами оперативних автомобілів спеціального призначення універсальних швидкісних стенограм незнайомих доріг під час їх професійної діяльності

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Praca recenzowana / peer-reviewed pape

Lagranzhev metod rascheta vozrasta i izotopnogo sostava lda v trekhmernoy modeli Antarkticheskogo ledovogo shita (in Russian), A Lagrangian method of calculation of age and isotopic composition of ice in a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

Two basic approaches exist for describing advection in the ice sheet model. We proceed with.comparing traditional Eulerian approach with a rather new in glaciological applications Lagrangian one. Particle tracing in the ice sheet is required to deal with such problems as detailed ice dating,establishing of isotopical composition, or distribution of any other conservative characteristic, which is advected with the ice flow. Within the frame of the Particle-in-Cell-(PlC) algorithm, a particle's trajectory is constructed by numerical interpolation as it moves through an evolving ice sheet within a regular 3D grid. The algorithm is conceptually straightforward, but demanding in terms of its practical implementation. The main advantage of the algorithm as compared to a pure Eulerian approach is that it is diffusion free, which makes it much more accurate in the lower part of the ice sheet. Application of PIC immediately yields the trajectories of the-particles, which is important for reconstruction of the flow peculiarities and the distribution of transported properties on isochronous surfaces. To implement it in the most effective way it is necessary to follow accurate balance between computational overhead and designed accuracy

Regionalnaya model' dinamiki l'da. Chast'1. Opisaniye modeli, postanovka chislennykh eksperimentov i sovremennaya dinamika potoka v oksrestnostiakh stantsii Konen (in Russian; Regional ice-dynamic model. Part 1. Model description, performance of numerical experiments, and present-day ice-flow dynamics around Kohnen station)

Considered in this study are methodological issues of a detailed reconstruction of the time-dependent ice flow in a limited area in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The nested domain of 600×400 km is located around Kohnen Station, where the deep drilling has been completed. The key point of our approach to regional modeling consists in separation of the model macro- and regional scale ice dynamics. We couple a time-dependent 3-D comprehensive model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet employing Shallow Ice Approximation dynamics (Big Model, or BM) with a steady3state model of the incomplete second-order approximation (Small Model, or SM). All prognostic calculations take place within BM, which simulates evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet through eight glacial cycles. SM receives boundary conditions from BM at lateral boundaries through a transition zone to eliminate the effects of different spatial resolution (20 km in BM and 2.5 in SM), but there is no feedback between SM and BM. SM assimilates the up-to-date observational data on accumulation rate and bedrock topography. In the numerical experiments we reconstruct history of variations of the surface and bed topography, accumulation rate and 3-D velocity field in the nested domain. Model estimate of the surface velocity at Kohnen is close to the observational one

Reconstruction of the annual balance of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since 1865

We have reconstructed the annual balance of the Vadret da Morteratsch, Engadine, with a two-dimensional energy-balance model for the period between 1865 and 2005. The model takes into account a parameterisation of the surface energy fluxes, an albedo that decreases exponentially with snow depth as well as the shading effect of the surrounding mountains. The model was first calibrated with a 5-year record of annual balance measurements made at 20 different sites on the glacier between 2001 and 2006 using meteorological data from surrounding weather stations as input. To force the model for the period starting in 1865 we employed monthly temperature and precipitation records from nearby valley stations. The model is capable to reproduce the observed annual balance reasonably well, except for the lower part during the warmest years. Most crucial to the results is the altitudinal precipitation gradient, but this factor is hard to quantify from the limited precipitation data at high elevations. The simulation shows an almost continuous mass loss since 1865, with short interruptions around 1920, 1935 and 1980. A trend towards a more negative annual balance can be observed since the beginning of the 1980s. The simulated cumulative mass balance for the entire period from 1865 to 2005 was found to be -46 m w.e

Ice thinning, upstream advection, and non-climatic biases for the upper 89% of the EDML ice core from a nested model of the Antarctic ice sheet

A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves

Regional effects of the global climate change; a case study: the Sochi National Park area (Russia)

The Sochi National Park (SNP) occupies a considerable territory within the Greater Sochi municipality. It is located in several altitudinal zones. Therefore, climatic conditions within its territory are rather diverse. The average climatic conditions of SNP are rather well studied, but the global and regional climate change together with long tendencies in natural climate variability, require regular updating of corresponding changes on the SNP territory. This is important, first of all, for tracking changes and establishing reasons in local biodiversity changes. In the paper, we consider recent variations of the key climatic characteristics (air surface temperature and precipitation amount) in three elevation zones of the SNP. Analyses of mean annual and mean seasonal values reveal that besides common features, climatic tendencies are influenced by local conditions. Positive trends were established in temperature time series and negative in precipitation ones