Recoil Polarization Measurements for Neutral Pion Electroproduction at Q^2=1 (GeV/c)^2 Near the Delta Resonance

We measured angular distributions of differential cross section, beam analyzing power, and recoil polarization for neutral pion electroproduction at Q^2 = 1.0 (GeV/c)^2 in 10 bins of W across the Delta resonance. A total of 16 independent response functions were extracted, of which 12 were observed for the first time. Comparisons with recent model calculations show that response functions governed by real parts of interference products are determined relatively well near 1.232 GeV, but variations among models is large for response functions governed by imaginary parts and for both increases rapidly with W. We performed a nearly model-independent multipole analysis that adjusts complex multipoles with high partial waves constrained by baseline models. Parabolic fits to the W dependence of the multipole analysis around the Delta mass gives values for SMR = (-6.61 +/- 0.18)% and EMR = (-2.87 +/- 0.19)% that are distinctly larger than those from Legendre analysis of the same data. Similarly, the multipole analysis gives Re(S0+/M1+) = (+7.1 +/- 0.8)% at W=1.232 GeV, consistent with recent models, while the traditional Legendre analysis gives the opposite sign because its truncation errors are quite severe. Finally, using a unitary isobar model (UIM), we find that excitation of the Roper resonance is dominantly longitudinal with S1/2 = (0.05 +/- 0.01) GeV^(-1/2) at Q^2=1. The ReS0+ and ReE0+ multipoles favor pseudovector coupling over pseudoscalar coupling or a recently proposed mixed-coupling scheme, but the UIM does not reproduce the imaginary parts of 0+ multipoles well.Comment: 60 pages, 54 figure

The Quasielastic 3He(e,e'p)d Reaction at Q^2 = 1.5 GeV^2 for Recoil Momenta up to 1 GeV/c

We have studied the quasielastic 3He(e,e'p)d reaction in perpendicular coplanar kinematics, with the energy and momentum transferred by the electron fixed at 840 MeV and 1502 MeV/c, respectively. The 3He(e,e'p)d cross section was measured for missing momenta up to 1000 MeV/c, while the A_TL asymmetry was extracted for missing momenta up to 660 MeV/c. For missing momenta up to 150 MeV/c, the measured cross section is described well by calculations that use a variational ground-state wave function of the 3He nucleus derived from a potential that includes three-body forces. For missing momenta from 150 to 750 MeV/c, strong final-state interaction effects are observed. Near 1000 MeV/c, the experimental cross section is more than an order of magnitude larger than predicted by available theories. The A_TL asymmetry displays characteristic features of broken factorization, and is described reasonably well by available models.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Physical Review Letters, v3: changed conten

Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary Information; Nature Physics (2011

Analysis of the archetypal functional equation in the non-critical case

We study the archetypal functional equation of the form $y(x)=\iint_{R^2} y(a(x-b))\,\mu(da,db)$ ($x\in R$), where $\mu$ is a probability measure on $R^2$; equivalently, $y(x)=E\{y(\alpha (x-\beta))\}$, where $E$ is expectation with respect to the distribution $\mu$ of random coefficients $(\alpha,\beta)$. Existence of non-trivial (i.e. non-constant) bounded continuous solutions is governed by the value $K:=\iint_{R^2}\ln |a| \mu(da,db) =E \{\ln |\alpha|\}$; namely, under mild technical conditions no such solutions exist whenever $K0$ (and $\alpha>0$) then there is a non-trivial solution constructed as the distribution function of a certain random series representing a self-similar measure associated with $(\alpha,\beta)$. Further results are obtained in the supercritical case $K>0$, including existence, uniqueness and a maximum principle. The case with $P(\alpha0$ is drastically different from that with $\alpha>0$; in particular, we prove that a bounded solution $y(\cdot)$ possessing limits at $\pm\infty$ must be constant. The proofs employ martingale techniques applied to the martingale $y(X_n)$, where $(X_n)$ is an associated Markov chain with jumps of the form $x\rightsquigarrow\alpha (x-\beta)$

Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees

The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts among social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolution are limited, so that data is not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamical aspect of the contacts is disregarded. Here, we want to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns among individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population. We consider high resolution data of face-to-face interactions between the attendees of a conference, obtained from the deployment of an infrastructure based on Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess mutual face-to-face proximity. The spread of epidemics along these interactions is simulated through an SEIR model, using both the dynamical network of contacts defined by the collected data, and two aggregated versions of such network, in order to assess the role of the data temporal aspects. We show that, on the timescales considered, an aggregated network taking into account the daily duration of contacts is a good approximation to the full resolution network, whereas a homogeneous representation which retains only the topology of the contact network fails in reproducing the size of the epidemic. These results have important implications in understanding the level of detail needed to correctly inform computational models for the study and management of real epidemics

Measurement of GEp/GMp in ep -> ep to Q2 = 5.6 GeV2

The ratio of the electric and magnetic form factors of the proton, GEp/GMp, was measured at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab) using the recoil polarization technique. The ratio of the form factors is directly proportional to the ratio of the transverse to longitudinal components of the polarization of the recoil proton in the elastic $\vec ep \to e\vec p$ reaction. The new data presented in this article span the range 3.5 < Q2 < 5.6 GeV2 and are well described by a linear Q2 fit. Also, the ratio QF2p/F1p reaches a constant value above Q2=2 GeV2.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures Added two names to the main author lis

Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1)

Here we present a review of the literature of influenza modeling studies, and discuss how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1), formerly known as swine flu. We discuss how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0). The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918–1919 pandemic strain (mean R0~2: range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1). By reviewing results from previous modeling studies we conclude it is theoretically possible that a pandemic of H1N1 could be contained. However it may not be feasible, even in resource-rich countries, to achieve the necessary levels of vaccination and treatment for control. As a recent modeling study has shown, a global cooperative strategy will be essential in order to control a pandemic. This strategy will require resource-rich countries to share their vaccines and antivirals with resource-constrained and resource-poor countries. We conclude our review by discussing the necessity of developing new biologically complex models. We suggest that these models should simultaneously track the transmission dynamics of multiple strains of influenza in bird, pig and human populations. Such models could be critical for identifying effective new interventions, and informing pandemic preparedness planning. Finally, we show that by modeling cross-species transmission it may be possible to predict the emergence of pandemic strains of influenza

Predictability and epidemic pathways in global outbreaks of infectious diseases: the SARS case study

Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The introduction of extensive transportation data sets is therefore an important step in order to develop epidemic models endowed with realism. Methods: We develop a general stochastic meta-population model that incorporates actual travel and census data among 3 100 urban areas in 220 countries. The model allows probabilistic predictions on the likelihood of country outbreaks and their magnitude. The level of predictability offered by the model can be quantitatively analyzed and related to the appearance of robust epidemic pathways that represent the most probable routes for the spread of the disease. Results: In order to assess the predictive power of the model, the case study of the global spread of SARS is considered. The disease parameter values and initial conditions used in the model are evaluated from empirical data for Hong Kong. The outbreak likelihood for specific countries is evaluated along with the emerging epidemic pathways. Simulation results are in agreement with the empirical data of the SARS worldwide epidemic. Conclusions: The presented computational approach shows that the integration of long-range mobility and demographic data provides epidemic models with a predictive power that can be consistently tested and theoretically motivated. This computational strategy can be therefore considered as a general tool in the analysis and forecast of the global spreading of emerging diseases and in the definition of containment policies aimed at reducing the effects of potentially catastrophic outbreaks.Comment: 21 pages, 2 tables, 7 figure

The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computational models play an increasingly important role in the assessment and control of public health crises, as demonstrated during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Much research has been done in recent years in the development of sophisticated data-driven models for realistic computer-based simulations of infectious disease spreading. However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We present "GLEaMviz", a publicly available software system that simulates the spread of emerging human-to-human infectious diseases across the world. The GLEaMviz tool comprises three components: the client application, the proxy middleware, and the simulation engine. The latter two components constitute the GLEaMviz server. The simulation engine leverages on the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) framework, a stochastic computational scheme that integrates worldwide high-resolution demographic and mobility data to simulate disease spread on the global scale. The GLEaMviz design aims at maximizing flexibility in defining the disease compartmental model and configuring the simulation scenario; it allows the user to set a variety of parameters including: compartment-specific features, transition values, and environmental effects. The output is a dynamic map and a corresponding set of charts that quantitatively describe the geo-temporal evolution of the disease. The software is designed as a client-server system. The multi-platform client, which can be installed on the user's local machine, is used to set up simulations that will be executed on the server, thus avoiding specific requirements for large computational capabilities on the user side.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The user-friendly graphical interface of the GLEaMviz tool, along with its high level of detail and the realism of its embedded modeling approach, opens up the platform to simulate realistic epidemic scenarios. These features make the GLEaMviz computational tool a convenient teaching/training tool as well as a first step toward the development of a computational tool aimed at facilitating the use and exploitation of computational models for the policy making and scenario analysis of infectious disease outbreaks.</p

Precision Measurement of the Neutron Spin Asymmetry A1nA_1^n and Spin-Flavor Decomposition in the Valence Quark Region

We have measured the neutron spin asymmetry $A_1^n$ with high precision at three kinematics in the deep inelastic region at $x=0.33$, 0.47 and 0.60, and $Q^2=2.7$, 3.5 and 4.8 (GeV/c)$^2$, respectively. Our results unambiguously show, for the first time, that $A_1^n$ crosses zero around $x=0.47$ and becomes significantly positive at $x=0.60$. Combined with the world proton data, polarized quark distributions were extracted. Our results, in general, agree with relativistic constituent quark models and with perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) analyses based on the earlier data. However they deviate from pQCD predictions based on hadron helicity conservation.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, this is the final version appeared in Phys. Rev. Let