Discussion of: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?

Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?" by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [arXiv:1104.4002]Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS398F the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods

We present results from continued investigations into the fidelity of covariance-based climate field reconstruction (CFR) approaches used in proxy-based climate reconstruction. Our experiments employ synthetic “pseudoproxy” data derived from simulations of forced climate changes over the past millennium. Using networks of these pseudoproxy data, we investigate the sensitivity of CFR performance to signal-to-noise ratios, the noise spectrum, the spatial sampling of pseudoproxy locations, the statistical representation of predictors used, and the diagnostic used to quantify reconstruction skill. Our results reinforce previous conclusions that CFR methods, correctly implemented and applied to suitable networks of proxy data, should yield reliable reconstructions of past climate histories within estimated uncertainties. Our results also demonstrate the deleterious impact of a linear detrending procedure performed recently in certain CFR studies and illustrate flaws in some previously proposed metrics of reconstruction skill

Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP): A Group Effectiveness Approach

Sales and Operations planning (S&OP) is an approach meant to help firms achieve demand and supply balance, yet experts agree that it has fallen short on delivering anticipated benefits. Carried out by cross-functional teams, S&OP entails getting people from different thought worlds, especially sales, aligned around common goals. Despite ample practitioner guidance, there is a dearth of scholarly research indicating pathways to success. Using a group effectiveness theoretical framework, this study identifies both internal team factors and contextual influencers that are predictors of S&OP effectiveness. Perspectives were captured from S&OP team members across a wide cross-section of industries representing sales and operations functions using a survey-based approach. Results indicate that internal team factors of social cohesion and decision making autonomy are key drivers of collaboration. Similarly, information quality, procedural quality, and team-based rewards/incentives serve as contextual influencers of collaboration. In turn, collaboration serves as a central mediator, partially linking antecedents to S&OP effectiveness and also serving as a direct influencer of success. Moreover, having joint rewards and incentives, which is often not the case among S&OP teams, is the greatest overall driver of S&OP effectiveness. Overall, these findings provide empirically-based guidance for managers seeking to determine which factors are most important for S&OP team success. Additionally, grounding S&OP in principles of group effectiveness theory will also aid future academic study in efforts to help firms achieve greater demand and supply balance

Evaluating the Influence of Personal Learning On Salesperson Role Ambiguity and Organizational Commitment

Learning facilitates changes in attitudes and behavior and these changes beseech improved performance and increased sales outcomes. Yet, given the independent nature of most sales positions, with fewer opportunities to engage with supervisors and co-workers, it is reasonable to postulate that many of the benefits of the organizational learning resources may go unrealized causing these employees to feel ill prepared and less committed to performing the duties of their job. The current study offers insight as to how ongoing efforts might produce positive energy toward the application of workplace learning thereby increasing the probability that the benefits will lead to performance outcomes that can be felt on an organizational level. Using a sample of frontline salespeople across varying industries, this study investigates personal learning, defined as the acquisition of knowledge, skills, or competencies which contribute to individual development. We evaluate changes in role ambiguity and organizational commitment as evidence of personal learning. The findings of the study reveal the effects of which may have longstanding organizational impact

The genesis of Hurricane Nate and its interaction with a nearby environment of very dry air

The Supplement related to this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10349-2017-supplementThe article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10349-2017The interaction of a tropical disturbance with its environment is thought to play an important role in whether a disturbance will develop or not. Most developing disturbances are somewhat protected from the intrusion of environmental dry air at mid-levels. For African easterly wave (AEW) disturbances, the protective boundary is approximated by closed streamlines in the wave-relative frame, and their interior is called the wave pouch. The dynamic and thermodynamic processes of spin-up occur inside the pouch. In this study, we define the kinematic boundaries for a nonAEW disturbance in the Bay of Campeche that originated along a sharp frontal boundary in a confluent region of low pressure. We examine these boundaries during the genesis of Hurricane Nate (2011) to show how a pouch boundary on isobaric levels in the Lagrangian frame may allow for some transport into the pouch along the frontal boundary while still protecting the innermost development region. This result illustrates a generic property of weakly unsteady flows, including the time-dependent critical layer of AEWs, that lateral exchange of air occurs along a segment of the boundary formed by the instantaneous, closed translating streamlines. Transport in the Lagrangian frame is simplest when measured with respect to the stable and unstable manifolds of a hyperbolic trajectory, which are topologically invariant. In this framework, an exact analysis of vorticity transport identifies the primary source as the advection of vorticity through the entrainment and expulsion of bounded material regions called lobes. We also show how these Lagrangian boundaries impact the concentration of moisture, influence convection, and contribute to the pouch vertical structure.NSFNASAAGS-1313948AGS-1439283AGS-0733380NNG11PK02

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 °C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica

The Role of Prior Sales Experience of Buyers and Duration in Buyer-Seller Relationships

This paper examines the impact that a buyer’s prior sales experience and the duration of the buyer-salesperson relationship has on the satisfaction and commitment linkages established within the literature. First, two key facets of satisfaction (social and economic) are linked to buyer’s commitment to the salesperson. Next, buyer-salesperson relationship duration is examined as an influencer between the satisfaction and commitment linkages. Following this, the study shifts its focus to examine if and how buyers with prior sales experience view the buyer-salesperson relationship different than buyers without prior sales experience. Findings of the study highlight the importance of developing our understanding of buyer-salesperson relationships with regards to multi-faceted satisfaction, buyer background, and relationship length

MathBrush: An Experimental Pen-Based Math System

It is widely believed that mathematics will be one of the major applications for Tablet PCs and other pen-based devices. In this paper we discuss many of the issues that make doing mathematics on such pen-based devices a hard task. We give a preliminary description of an experimental system, currently named MathBrush, for working with mathematics using pen-based devices. The system allows a user to enter mathematical expressions with a pen and to then do mathematical computation using a computer algebra system. The system provides a simple and easy way for users to verify the correctness of their handwritten expressions and, if needed, to correct any errors in recognition. Choosing mathematical operations is done making use of context menus, both with input and output expressions