The Navajos

xvi,299 hal.;ill.;22 c

An Integrated Population Model From Constant Effort Bird-Ringing Data

Data from annual bird-ringing programs, in which catch effort is standardized, are routinely used to index abundance, productivity, and adult survival. Efficient models have been developed for each. Such monitoring schemes, based on ringing across a number of sites, are perhaps unique in providing this combination of demographic information and make the data particularly amenable to an integrated approach to population modeling. We develop a Bayesian approach and a deterministic population model uniting abundance, productivity, and survival. The method is applied to sedge warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus data from the British Trust for Ornithology’s Constant Effort Sites scheme. The possibility of “transient” birds needs to be incorporated within this analysis. We demonstrate how current methodology can efficiently be extended to use additional data from multiple within year recaptures when controlling for transience. Supplemental materials for this article are available online

Survival and Spatial Fidelity of Mouflons: the Effect of Location, Age and Sex

This article is motivated by a series of data on a population of mouflons (Ovis gmelini) in the Caroux-Espinouse massif and focuses upon discriminating between competing biological hypotheses corresponding to the dependence of any or all of the population parameters upon either sex, location, or age. We show how we can analyze the data using a Bayesian approach, where we are able to take into account prior information obtained via a previous radio-tagging study. We consider the Amason-Schwarz model together with its submodels to describe the data. Efficiently exploring model space using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology, we are able to calculate model-averaged estimates of parameters of interest, which incorporate both parameter and model uncertainty. In addition, we quantitatively compare different biological hypotheses by calculating their corresponding posterior probabilities. In particular, we show that survival rates tend to remain constant with some evidence to suggest a slight senescent decline. We also provide evidence to suggest that movement around the habitat is largely the same for both sexes up until age 4, when the males appear to extend their migration range, venturing further from the main flock in search of better grazing.</p