Association is not causation: treatment effects cannot be estimated from observational data in heart failure

Aims: Treatment ‘effects’ are often inferred from non-randomized and observational studies. These studies have inherent biases and limitations, which may make therapeutic inferences based on their results unreliable. We compared the conflicting findings of these studies to those of prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in relation to pharmacological treatments for heart failure (HF). Methods and results: We searched Medline and Embase to identify studies of the association between non-randomized drug therapy and all-cause mortality in patients with HF until 31 December 2017. The treatments of interest were: angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), statins, and digoxin. We compared the findings of these observational studies with those of relevant RCTs. We identified 92 publications, reporting 94 non-randomized studies, describing 158 estimates of the ‘effect’ of the six treatments of interest on all-cause mortality, i.e. some studies examined more than one treatment and/or HF phenotype. These six treatments had been tested in 25 RCTs. For example, two pivotal RCTs showed that MRAs reduced mortality in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction. However, only one of 12 non-randomized studies found that MRAs were of benefit, with 10 finding a neutral effect, and one a harmful effect. Conclusion: This comprehensive comparison of studies of non-randomized data with the findings of RCTs in HF shows that it is not possible to make reliable therapeutic inferences from observational associations. While trials undoubtedly leave gaps in evidence and enrol selected participants, they clearly remain the best guide to the treatment of patients

The emerging burden of heart failure in adults with congenital heart disease

Ntiloudi et al. confirm the high burden of failure-related morbidity and mortality in adults with CHD. However, the pathways leading to heart failure in ACHD are heterogeneous and often poorly understood. Most importantly, there is a need for more randomized trials. Trials investigating effects on symptoms and surrogate measures of disease need not be large. However, much larger trials are required to investigate the effects of treatment on disease progression and prognosis, requiring collaborations at national and international levels, as is already the case for other forms of heart failure

Limitations of Remotely Sensed Aerosol as a Spatial Proxy for Fine Particulate Matter

Background: Recent research highlights the promise of remotely sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) as a proxy for ground-level particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5). Particular interest lies in estimating spatial heterogeneity using AOD, with important application to estimating pollution exposure for public health purposes. Given the correlations reported between AOD and PM2.5, it is tempting to interpret the spatial patterns in AOD as reflecting patterns in PM2.5. Objectives: We evaluated the degree to which AOD can help predict long-term average PM2.5 concentrations for use in chronic health studies. Methods: We calculated correlations of AOD and PM2.5 at various temporal aggregations in the eastern United States in 2004 and used statistical models to assess the relationship between AOD and PM2.5 and the potential for improving predictions of PM2.5 in a subregion, the mid-Atlantic. Results: We found only limited spatial associations of AOD from three satellite retrievals with daily and yearly PM2.5. The statistical modeling shows that monthly average AOD poorly reflects spatial patterns in PM2.5 because of systematic, spatially correlated discrepancies between AOD and PM2.5. Furthermore, when we included AOD as a predictor of monthly PM2.5 in a statistical prediction model, AOD provided little additional information in a model that already accounts for land use, emission sources, meteorology, and regional variability. Conclusions: These results suggest caution in using spatial variation in currently available AOD to stand in for spatial variation in ground-level PM2.5 in epidemiologic analyses and indicate that when PM2.5 monitoring is available, careful statistical modeling outperforms the use of AOD

Restriction landmark genomic scanning (RLGS) spot identification by second generation virtual RLGS in multiple genomes with multiple enzyme combinations.

BackgroundRestriction landmark genomic scanning (RLGS) is one of the most successfully applied methods for the identification of aberrant CpG island hypermethylation in cancer, as well as the identification of tissue specific methylation of CpG islands. However, a limitation to the utility of this method has been the ability to assign specific genomic sequences to RLGS spots, a process commonly referred to as "RLGS spot cloning."ResultsWe report the development of a virtual RLGS method (vRLGS) that allows for RLGS spot identification in any sequenced genome and with any enzyme combination. We report significant improvements in predicting DNA fragment migration patterns by incorporating sequence information into the migration models, and demonstrate a median Euclidian distance between actual and predicted spot migration of 0.18 centimeters for the most complex human RLGS pattern. We report the confirmed identification of 795 human and 530 mouse RLGS spots for the most commonly used enzyme combinations. We also developed a method to filter the virtual spots to reduce the number of extra spots seen on a virtual profile for both the mouse and human genomes. We demonstrate use of this filter to simplify spot cloning and to assist in the identification of spots exhibiting tissue-specific methylation.ConclusionThe new vRLGS system reported here is highly robust for the identification of novel RLGS spots. The migration models developed are not specific to the genome being studied or the enzyme combination being used, making this tool broadly applicable. The identification of hundreds of mouse and human RLGS spot loci confirms the strong bias of RLGS studies to focus on CpG islands and provides a valuable resource to rapidly study their methylation

Large scale localization of protein phosphorylation by use of electron capture dissociation mass spectrometry.

We used on-line electron capture dissociation (ECD) for the large scale identification and localization of sites of phosphorylation. Each FT-ICR ECD event was paired with a linear ion trap collision-induced dissociation (CID) event, allowing a direct comparison of the relative merits of ECD and CID for phosphopeptide identification and site localization. Linear ion trap CID was shown to be most efficient for phosphopeptide identification, whereas FT-ICR ECD was superior for localization of sites of phosphorylation. The combination of confident CID and ECD identification and confident CID and ECD localization is particularly valuable in cases where a phosphopeptide is identified just once within a phosphoproteomics experiment

Addition of abiraterone to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): Model to estimate long-term survival, quality-adjusted survival, and cost-effectiveness

Background: Results from randomised trials show adding abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone (AAP) to standard of care (SOC) improves disease-free and overall survival in men with prostate cancer (PC) starting long-term hormone therapy for first time. Formal assessment is required of whether funding AAP here shows appropriate use of resources. This cost-effectiveness decision model tests if giving AAP to these patients is cost-effective using costs from English National Health Service, the largest nation where STAMPEDE recruited. / Methods: Health outcomes and costs were modelled using patient data from AAP comparison of STAMPEDE (recruitment 2011-14). This included 1917 men with high-risk, locally advanced metastatic or recurrent PC starting 1st-line hormone therapy. SOC was hormone therapy for ≥2 years with radiotherapy in pre-selected patients. If allocated to research group, AAP (AA 1000mg/day, P 5mg/day) was added to SOC. The model makes lifetime predictions of survival, costs and quality-adjusted lifeyears (QALYs), with costs and QALYs discounted at 3.5% annually. Sensitivity analyses were performed. / Results: The model predicted AAP would extend survival (discounted quality-adjusted survival) by 2.68y (1.46 QALYs) for metastatic patients and 0.30y (0.29 QALYs) for non-metastatic. The cost of AAP means it is not currently cost-effective in this setting, including with Patient Access Scheme costs for AAP and enzalutamide and similar reductions for cabazitaxel and Ra. If AAP’s price reduces after patent expiry as expected (90% reduction on BNF cost), it would be cost-effective in both patient groups, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below £10,000 (US$12,665) per QALY. AAP could also dominate in non-metastatic patients (i.e. lower costs and higher QALYs than SOC alone). / Conclusions: AAP could be cost-effective for patients with non-metastatic and metastatic disease with expected future pricing and may be cost-saving in the former. Policymakers should encourage license submissions and generic price reductions to facilitate use of AAP given cost-saving potential in addition to improving survival. / Clinical trial information: NCT00268476

Signature for Pain Recovery IN Teens (SPRINT): protocol for a multisite prospective signature study in chronic musculoskeletal pain

INTRODUCTION: Current treatments for chronic musculoskeletal (MSK) pain are suboptimal. Discovery of robust prognostic markers separating patients who recover from patients with persistent pain and disability is critical for developing patient-specific treatment strategies and conceiving novel approaches that benefit all patients. Given that chronic pain is a biopsychosocial process, this study aims to discover and validate a robust prognostic signature that measures across multiple dimensions in the same adolescent patient cohort with a computational analysis pipeline. This will facilitate risk stratification in adolescent patients with chronic MSK pain and more resourceful allocation of patients to costly and potentially burdensome multidisciplinary pain treatment approaches. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Here we describe a multi-institutional effort to collect, curate and analyse a high dimensional data set including epidemiological, psychometric, quantitative sensory, brain imaging and biological information collected over the course of 12 months. The aim of this effort is to derive a multivariate model with strong prognostic power regarding the clinical course of adolescent MSK pain and function. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study complies with the National Institutes of Health policy on the use of a single internal review board (sIRB) for multisite research, with Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center Review Board as the reviewing IRB. Stanford's IRB is a relying IRB within the sIRB. As foreign institutions, the University of Toronto and The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) are overseen by their respective ethics boards. All participants provide signed informed consent. We are committed to open-access publication, so that patients, clinicians and scientists have access to the study data and the signature(s) derived. After findings are published, we will upload a limited data set for sharing with other investigators on applicable repositories. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04285112

Cost-utility analysis of adding abiraterone acetate plus prednisone/prednisolone to long-term hormone therapy in newly diagnosed advanced prostate cancer in England: Lifetime decision model based on STAMPEDE trial data

Adding abiraterone acetate (AA) plus prednisolone (P) to standard of care (SOC) improves survival in newly diagnosed advanced prostate cancer (PC) patients starting hormone therapy. Our objective was to determine the value for money to the English National Health Service (NHS) of adding AAP to SOC. We used a decision analytic model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of providing AAP in the English NHS. Between 2011-2014, the STAMPEDE trial recruited 1917 men with high-risk localised, locally advanced, recurrent or metastatic PC starting first-line androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT), and they were randomised to receive SOC plus AAP, or SOC alone. Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated using STAMPEDE trial data supplemented with literature data where necessary, adjusting for baseline patient and disease characteristics. British National Formulary (BNF) prices (£98/day) were applied for AAP. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3.5%/year. AAP was not cost-effective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £149,748/QALY gained in the non-metastatic (M0) subgroup, with 2.4% probability of being cost-effective at NICE's £30,000/QALY threshold; and the metastatic (M1) subgroup had an ICER of £47,503/QALY gained, with 12.0% probability of being cost-effective. Scenario analysis suggested AAP could be cost-effective in M1 patients if priced below £62/day, or below £28/day in the M0 subgroup. AAP could dominate SOC in the M0 subgroup with price below £11/day. AAP is effective for non-metastatic and metastatic disease but is not cost-effective when using the BNF price. AAP currently only has UK approval for use in a subset of M1 patients. The actual price currently paid by the English NHS for abiraterone acetate is unknown. Broadening AAP's indication and having a daily cost below the thresholds described above is recommended, given AAP improves survival in both subgroups and its cost-saving potential in M0 subgroup