Predict or classify: The deceptive role of time-locking in brain signal classification

Several experimental studies claim to be able to predict the outcome of simple decisions from brain signals measured before subjects are aware of their decision. Often, these studies use multivariate pattern recognition methods with the underlying assumption that the ability to classify the brain signal is equivalent to predict the decision itself. Here we show instead that it is possible to correctly classify a signal even if it does not contain any predictive information about the decision. We first define a simple stochastic model that mimics the random decision process between two equivalent alternatives, and generate a large number of independent trials that contain no choice-predictive information. The trials are first time-locked to the time point of the final event and then classified using standard machine-learning techniques. The resulting classification accuracy is above chance level long before the time point of time-locking. We then analyze the same trials using information theory. We demonstrate that the high classification accuracy is a consequence of time-locking and that its time behavior is simply related to the large relaxation time of the process. We conclude that when time-locking is a crucial step in the analysis of neural activity patterns, both the emergence and the timing of the classification accuracy are affected by structural properties of the network that generates the signal.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figure

Switch-independent task representations in frontal and parietal cortex

Alternating between two tasks is effortful and impairs performance. Previous fMRI studies have found increased activity in frontoparietal cortex when task switching is required. One possibility is that the additional control demands for switch trials are met by strengthening task representations in the human brain. Alternatively, on switch trials, the residual representation of the previous task might impede the buildup of a neural task representation. This would predict weaker task representations on switch trials, thus also explaining the performance costs. To test this, male and female participants were cued to perform one of two similar tasks, with the task being repeated or switched between successive trials. Multivoxel pattern analysis was used to test which regions encode the tasks and whether this encoding differs between switch and repeat trials. As expected, we found information about task representations in frontal and parietal cortex, but there was no difference in the decoding accuracy of task-related information between switch and repeat trials. Using cross-classification, we found that the frontoparietal cortex encodes tasks using a generalizable spatial pattern in switch and repeat trials. Therefore, task representations in frontal and parietal cortex are largely switch independent. We found no evidence that neural information about task representations in these regions can explain behavioral costs usually associated with task switching

COMT Val158Met polymorphism and socioeconomic status interact to predict attention deficit/hyperactivity problems in children aged 10–14

The functional Val158Met COMT polymorphism appears to affect a host of behaviours mediated by the pre-frontal cortex, and has been found associated to the risk for disruptive behaviours including ADHD. Parental socioeconomic status (SES) has also been reported as a predictor for the same childhood disorders. In a general population sample of 575 Italian pre-adolescents aged 10–14, we examined the association of the functional Val158Met COMT polymorphism and SES—both as linear and interactive effects—with oppositional defiant problems, conduct problems, and attention deficit/hyperactivity problems, as defined by the newly established Child Behaviour Check-List/6-18 DSM oriented scales. Multivariate- and subsequent univariate-analysis of covariance showed a significant association of COMT × SES interaction with CBCL 6/18 DOS attention deficit/hyperactivity problems (p = 0.004), and revealed higher scores among those children with Val/Val COMT genotype who belonged to low-SES families. We also found a significant association of SES with attention deficit/hyperactivity problems and conduct problems DOS (p = 0.04 and 0.01, respectively). Our data are consistent with a bulk of recent literature suggesting a role of environmental factors in moderating the contribution of specific genetic polymorphisms to human variability in ADHD. While future investigations will refine and better clarify which specific environmental and genetic mechanisms are at work in influencing the individual risk to ADHD in pre-adolescence, these data may contribute to identify/prevent the risk for ADHD problems in childhood

A B-cell receptor-related gene signature predicts survival in mantle cell lymphoma: Results from the Fondazione Italiana Linfomi MCL-0208 trial

Mantle cell lymphoma patients have variable clinical courses, ranging from indolent cases that do not require immediate treatment to aggressive, rapidly progressing diseases. Thus, diagnostic tools capable of stratifying patients according to their risk of relapse and death are needed. This study included 83 samples from the Fondazione Italiana Linfomi MCL-0208 clinical trial. Through gene expression profiling and quantitative real-time PCR we analyzed 46 peripheral blood and 43 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded lymph node samples. A prediction model to classify patients was developed. By analyzing the transcriptome of 27 peripheral blood samples, two subgroups characterized by a differential expression of genes from the B-cell receptor pathway (B-cell receptor low and B-cell receptor high ) were identified. The prediction model based on the quantitative real-time PCR values of six representative genes (AKT3, BCL2, BTK, CD79B, PIK3CD, and SYK), was used to classify the 83 cases (43 B-cell receptor low and 40 B-cell receptor high ). The B-cell receptor high signature associated with shorter progression-free survival (P=0.0074), selected the mantle cell lymphoma subgroup with the shortest progression-free survival and overall survival (P=0.0014 and P=0.029, respectively) in combination with high ( extgreater30%) Ki-67 staining, and was an independent predictor of short progression-free survival along with the Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index-combined score. Moreover, the clinical impact of the 6-gene signature related to the B-cell receptor pathway identified a mantle cell lymphoma subset with shorter progression-free survival intervals also in an external independent mantle cell lymphoma cohort homoge-nously treated with different schedules. In conclusion, this 6-gene signature associates with a poor clinical response in the context of the MCL-0208 clinical trial. (clinicaltrials.gov identifier: 02354313)

Incidence of asthma and mortality in a cohort of young adults: a 7-year prospective study

BACKGROUND: Few longitudinal data exist on the incidence of asthma in young adults and on the overall mortality risk due to asthma. A 7-year follow-up prospective study was performed to assess the incidence of asthma and mortality from all causes in a cohort of young adults. METHODS: The life status of a cohort of 6031 subjects, aged 20–44 years, who replied to a respiratory screening questionnaire between 1991 and 1992, was ascertained in 1999. A new questionnaire investigating the history of asthma was subsequently sent to the 5236 subjects who were still alive and residents in the areas of the study. 3880 subjects (74%) replied to the second questionnaire. RESULTS: The incidence of adult-onset asthma was 15.3/10,000/year (95%CI:11.2–20.8). The presence of asthma-like symptoms (IRR:4.17; 95%CI:2.20–7.87) and allergic rhinitis (IRR:3.30; 95%CI:1.71–6.36) at baseline were independent predictors of the onset of asthma, which was more frequent in women (IRR:2.32; 95%CI:1.16–4.67) and increased in the younger generations. The subjects who reported asthma attacks or nocturnal asthma symptoms at baseline had an excess mortality risk from all causes (SMR = 2.05; 95%CI:1.06–3.58) in the subsequent seven years. The excess mortality was mainly due to causes not related to respiratory diseases. CONCLUSION: Asthma occurrence is a relevant public health problem even in young adults. The likelihood of developing adult onset asthma is significantly higher in people suffering from allergic rhinitis, in women and in more recent generations. The presence of asthma attacks and nocturnal symptoms seems to be associated with a potential excess risk of all causes mortality