Several experimental studies claim to be able to predict the outcome of
simple decisions from brain signals measured before subjects are aware of their
decision. Often, these studies use multivariate pattern recognition methods
with the underlying assumption that the ability to classify the brain signal is
equivalent to predict the decision itself. Here we show instead that it is
possible to correctly classify a signal even if it does not contain any
predictive information about the decision. We first define a simple stochastic
model that mimics the random decision process between two equivalent
alternatives, and generate a large number of independent trials that contain no
choice-predictive information. The trials are first time-locked to the time
point of the final event and then classified using standard machine-learning
techniques. The resulting classification accuracy is above chance level long
before the time point of time-locking. We then analyze the same trials using
information theory. We demonstrate that the high classification accuracy is a
consequence of time-locking and that its time behavior is simply related to the
large relaxation time of the process. We conclude that when time-locking is a
crucial step in the analysis of neural activity patterns, both the emergence
and the timing of the classification accuracy are affected by structural
properties of the network that generates the signal.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figure