Control of heat pumps with CO2 emission intensity forecasts

An optimized heat pump control for building heating was developed for minimizing CO2 emissions from related electrical power generation. The control is using weather and CO2 emission forecasts as input to a Model Predictive Control (MPC) - a multivariate control algorithm using a dynamic process model, constraints and a cost function to be minimized. In a simulation study the control was applied using weather and power grid conditions during a full year period in 2017-2018 for the power bidding zone DK2 (East, Denmark). Two scenarios were studied; one with a family house and one with an office building. The buildings were dimensioned on the basis of standards and building codes. The main results are measured as the CO2 emission savings relative to a classical thermostatic control. Note that this only measures the gain achieved using the MPC control, i.e. the energy flexibility, not the absolute savings. The results show that around 16% savings could have been achieved during the period in well insulated new buildings with floor heating. Further, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of various building properties, e.g. level of insulation and thermal capacity. Danish building codes from 1977 and forward was used as benchmarks for insulation levels. It was shown that both insulation and thermal mass influence the achievable flexibility savings, especially for floor heating. Buildings that comply with codes later than 1979 could provide flexibility emission savings of around 10%, while buildings that comply with earlier codes provided savings in the range of 0-5% depending on the heating system and thermal mass.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Energie

The Role and Limits of Principles in AI Ethics: Towards a Focus on Tensions

The last few years have seen a proliferation of principles for AI ethics. There is substantial overlap between different sets of principles, with widespread agreement that AI should be used for the common good, should not be used to harm people or undermine their rights, and should respect widely held values such as fairness, privacy, and autonomy. While articulating and agreeing on principles is important, it is only a start- ing point. Drawing on comparisons with the field of bioethics, we highlight some of the limitations of principles: in particular, they are often too broad and high-level to guide ethics in practice. We suggest that an important next step for the field of AI ethics is to focus on exploring the tensions that inevitably arise as we try to implement principles in practice. By explicitly recognising these tensions we can begin to make decisions about how they should be resolved in specific cases, and develop frameworks and guidelines for AI ethics that are rigorous and practically relevant. We discuss some different specific ways that tensions arise in AI ethics, and what processes might be needed to resolve them.Work supported by the Nuffield Foundation and Leverhulme Trus

Gender differences in time to first hospital admission at age 60 in Denmark, 1995–2014

Women have consistently lower mortality rates than men at all ages and with respect to most causes. However, gender differences regarding hospital admission rates are more mixed, varying across ages and causes. A number of intuitive metrics have previously been used to explore changes in hospital admissions over time, but have not explicitly quantified the gender gap or estimated the cumulative contribution from cause-specific admission rates. Using register data for the total Danish population between 1995 and 2014, we estimated the time to first hospital admission for Danish men and women aged 60. This is an intuitive population-level metric with the same interpretive and mathematical properties as period life expectancy. Using a decomposition approach, we were able to quantify the cumulative contributions from eight causes of hospital admission to the gender gap in time to first hospital admission. Between 1995 and 2014, time to first admission increased for both, men (7.6 to 9.4 years) and women (8.3 to 10.3 years). However, the magnitude of gender differences in time to first admission remained relatively stable within this time period (0.7 years in 1995, 0.9 years in 2014). After age 60, Danish men had consistently higher rates of admission for cardiovascular conditions and neoplasms, but lower rates of admission for injuries, musculoskeletal disorders, and sex-specific causes. Although admission rates for both genders have generally declined over the last decades, the same major causes of admission accounted for the gender gap. Persistent gender differences in causes of admission are, therefore, important to consider when planning the delivery of health care in times of population ageing.Output Status: Forthcoming/Available Onlin

Do men avoid seeking medical advice? A register-based analysis of gender-specific changes in primary healthcare use after first hospitalisation at ages 60+ in Denmark

The work was supported by the US National Institute of Health (P01AG031719, R01AG026786, and 2P01AG031719), the VELUX Foundation and the Max Planck Society within the framework of the project “On the edge of societies: New vulnerable populations, emerging challenges for social policies and future demands for social innovation. The experience of the Baltic Sea States (2016-2021)”.Background  It remains unclear whether women’s greater primary healthcare use reflects a lower treatment-seeking threshold or a health disadvantage. We address this question by studying primary healthcare use surrounding a major health shock. Methods  This cohort study utilises routinely-collected healthcare data covering the Danish population aged 60+ years between 1996 and 2011. Using a hurdle model, we investigate levels of non-use and levels of primary healthcare use before and after first inpatient hospitalisation for stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and gastrointestinal cancers (GIC). Results  Before hospitalisation, irrespective of cause, men were more likely than women to be non-users of primary healthcare (OR (95% CI): stroke 1.802 (1.731 to 1.872); MI 1.841 (1.760 to 1.922); COPD 2.160 (2.028 to 2.292); GIC 1.609 (1.525 to 1.693)). Men who were users had fewer primary healthcare contacts than women (proportional change (eβ) (95% CI): stroke 0.821 (0.806 to 0.836); MI 0.796 (0.778 to 0.814); COPD 0.855 (0.832 to 0.878); GIC 0.859 (0.838 to 0.881)). Following hospitalisation, changes in the probability of being a non-user (OR (95% CI): stroke 0.965 (0.879 to 1.052); MI 0.894 (0.789 to 0.999); COPD 0.755 (0.609 to 0.900); GIC 0.895 (0.801 to 0.988)) and levels of primary healthcare use (eβ (95% CI): stroke 1.113 (1.102 to 1.124); MI 1.112 (1.099 to 1.124); COPD 1.078 (1.063 to 1.093); GIC 1.097 (1.079 to 1.114)) were more pronounced among men. Gender differences widened after accounting for survival following hospitalisation. Conclusion  Women’s consistently higher levels of primary healthcare use are likely to be explained by a combination of a lower treatment-seeking threshold and a health disadvantage resulting from better survival in bad health.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Sex Differences in Medication and Primary Healthcare Use before and after Spousal Bereavement at Older Ages in Denmark: Nationwide Register Study of over 6000 Bereavements

Background. The study aimed to examine sex differences in healthcare use before and after widowhood to investigate whether reduced healthcare use among widowers compared with widows may partially explain excess mortality and more adverse health outcomes among men than women after spousal loss. Methods. All individuals alive and aged at least 60 years in 1996 and who became widowed in the period from 1996 to 2003 were selected from the 5% sample of the total Danish population and all Danish twins. The healthcare use was assessed as the average daily all-cause and major system-specific medication use and the average annual number of visits to general physicians (GPs). Results. The average daily use of all-cause and major system-specific medications, as well as the number of GP visits increased over the period from 1 year before and up to 5 years after a spouse's death, but there were no sex-specific patterns in the trajectories of medication use and number of GP visits after conjugal loss. Conclusion. We found little support for the hypothesis that reduced healthcare use contributes to the explanation of more adverse health outcomes after conjugal loss in men compared with women in Denmark

Brown bear predation on semi-domesticated reindeer and depredation compensations

The recovery and conservation of large carnivores can negatively impact the economy of traditional pastoralist societies, including indigenous reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) herding communities. Quantifying the magnitude of predation on livestock is critical to evaluating governmental carnivore compensation schemes. We collaborated with two Sami herding communities in northern Sweden (2010-2012) to examine brown bear (Ursus arctos) predation patterns on semi-domesticated reindeer and quantify the economic impact of bear predation. Predation patterns were estimated by following 21 GPS proximity-collared bears and similar to 2500 transmitter-collared female reindeer during calving season. We calculated economic impact by multiplying the monetary value of reindeer by the expected number lost to bears. On average, bears killed 10.2 [8.6, 11.5] calves per bear, accounting for 39-62% of all calf mortality, while few adult reindeer were killed. Bear kill rates increased with time spent in the calving area, and varied widely by individual and reproductive status, e.g., females with cubs-of-the-year did not kill calves. Kill intervals increased over the parturition season, and were larger for sub-adults than adults. The mean reindeer calf predation rate was 16-27%, which resulted in an annual loss between similar to(sic)50,000 and similar to(sic)62,000 per herding group. Current compensation schemes for herding communities in Sweden are calculated as a fixed rate based on herding community land-area. The herding groups in our study were reimbursed for similar to 2% of realized monetary loss. Compensation schemes based on herding community area, rather than realized predation patterns, may be less effective at mitigating the economic impact of living with large carnivores

Understanding Online Channel Expansion in an SME Context: A Business Model Perspective

The purpose of the paper is to study, from a business model perspective, value creating activities taken by SMEs when making a transition to an online multichannel context by adopting and adding e-commerce and/or m-commerce. 16 SMEs in Sweden are studied using a basic qualitative research approach and an e-transit business model configuration. Main results of the study are the existence of primary and secondary transition activities and the existence of a discrepancy between actions taken and their perceived degree of importance. One main conclusion is that the combination of value creating activities an SME should focus on during different stages of an online channel expansion differ depending on transition category and will change over time

Preparing for the future : the changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050

Funding: Both grants – 2P01AG031719, US National Institute of Health and ”On the edge of societies: Vulnerable populations, emerging challenges for social policies and future demands for social innovation. The experience of the Baltic Sea States (2016-2021)” – were received by Prof. James W. Vaupel, Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark (https://portal.findresearcher.sdu.dk/en/persons/jvaupel), who is not a co-author on this paper. The experience of the Baltic Sea States (2016-2021) provided by the Max Planck Society has no number.Background Population aging will pose huge challenges for healthcare systems and will require a promotion of positive attitudes towards older people and the encouragement of careers in geriatrics to attract young professionals into the field and to meet the needs of a rapidly growing number of old-aged patients. We describe the current demographic profile of hospital care use in Denmark and make projections for changes in the patient profile up to 2050. Methods The Danish population in 2013 (N = 5.63 million) was followed up for inpatient and emergency admissions recorded in Danish hospitals in 2013 using population-based registers. We combined age- and sex-specific hospital care use in 2013 with official population estimates to forecast the profile of hospital days up to 2050 with respect to age and sex. Results The total number of hospital days per year is projected to increase by 42% between 2013 and 2050, from 4.66 to 6.72 million days. While small changes are projected for the population aged 0–69, the largest change is projected to occur for the population aged 70+. The 2013 levels were 0.82 and 0.93 million days for men and women aged 70+, respectively. By 2050, these levels are projected to have reached 1.94 and 1.84 million days. While the population aged 70+ accounted for 37.5% of all days in 2013, its contribution is projected to increase to 56.2% by 2050. Conclusion Our study shows one possible scenario for changes in the hospital days due to population aging by 2050: Assuming no changes in hospital care use over the forecast period, the absolute contribution of individuals aged 70+ to the total hospital days will more than double, and the relative contribution of persons aged 70+ will account for nearly 60% of all hospital days by 2050, being largest among men.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Brown bear predation on semi-domesticated reindeer and depredation compensations

The recovery and conservation of large carnivores can negatively impact the economy of traditional pastoralist societies, including indigenous reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) herding communities. Quantifying the magnitude of predation on livestock is critical to evaluating governmental carnivore compensation schemes. We collaborated with two Sami herding communities in northern Sweden (2010–2012) to examine brown bear (Ursus arctos) predation patterns on semidomesticated reindeer and quantify the economic impact of bear predation. Predation patterns were estimated by following 21 GPS proximity- collared bears and ~2500 transmitter-collared female reindeer during calving season. We calculated economic impact by multiplying the monetary value of reindeer by the expected number lost to bears. On average, bears killed 10.2 [8.6, 11.5] calves per bear, accounting for 39− 62% of all calf mortality, while few adult reindeer were killed. Bear kill rates increased with time spent in the calving area, and varied widely by individual and reproductive status, e.g., females with cubs-of-the- year did not kill calves. Kill intervals increased over the parturition season, and were larger for sub-adults than adults. The mean reindeer calf predation rate was 16–27%, which resulted in an annual loss between ~€50,000 and ~€62,000 per herding group. Current compensation schemes for herding communities in Sweden are calculated as a fixed rate based on herding community land-area. The herding groups in our study were reimbursed for ~2% of realized monetary loss. Compensation schemes based on herding community area, rather than realized predation patterns, may be less effective at mitigating the economic impact of living with large carnivores. Compensation Depredation Economic impact Proximity collars Indigenous communities PastoralismpublishedVersio