Divergent competitiveness in the eurozone and the optimum currency area theory

As the euro is on its second decade, the European sovereign debt crisis and the ever more evident disparities in competitiveness among member states are prompting many to question whether monetary union is bringing more benefits than costs. The optimum currency area (OCA) theory provides a framework with several criteria for such analysis. Most literature focuses either or on OCA individual criteria or on an aggregate analysis of these criteria, using meta-properties. Differently, we start by a descriptive analysis of the first twelve euro countries under six criteria between 1999 and 2009. We detect signs of labour geographic mobility. However, nominal wages growth largely outpaced productivity growth in some periphery countries, resulting in losses of competitiveness. Financial markets seem to be deeply integrated. Total intra-EMU trade increased, though core countries seem to have benefited more, as their relative competitiveness improved. We detect no increased homogeneity of exports structures of EMU countries. Inflation rates alternated between periods of convergence and of divergence, though prices levels consistently converged between EMU countries. Finally, budgetary indiscipline was frequent preventing several countries from having fiscal room to face asymmetrical shocks.We conclude by estimating the impact of five OCA criteria on countries’ relative competitiveness, using real effective exchange rates as a proxy. Differences in the growth of unit labour costs, the dissimilarity of trade and the differences in output growth were found to be significant. With a higher confidence level, bilateral trade is significant and points towards the specialization paradigm. Thus, we identify some causes of the divergent competitiveness between some EMU countries that contributed to weaker economic growth in parts of the euro area.Optimum currency area, Euro Area; Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), Competitiveness

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts

Invasive hornets on the road: motorway-driven dispersal must be considered in management plans of Vespa velutina

Understanding the mechanisms that potentiate the dispersion of an invasive species is essential to anticipate its arrival into new regions and to develop adequate management actions to minimize damage to biodiversity and society. One of the most successful invaders in Europe, the yellow-legged hornet (Vespa velutina), is dispersing through self-diffusion and jump dispersal. Using information on species occurrence in Portugal from 2013 to 2018, this study aimed to understand the range expansion trajectory of V. velutina and to identify the role of climate, landscape and anthropogenic variables on the two mechanisms of spread. We found that in Portugal the invasion is proceeding faster southwards (45 km/year) along the Atlantic coast than eastwards (20 km/ year) where the climatic suitability gradient is more compressed, with jump dispersal playing an important role in this difference and in the acceleration of the invasion process. Dispersal by diffusion was best explained by the annual range of temperature and precipitation of the wettest month, with distance to shrub land also having an important role. Additionally, jump dispersal appeared to be facilitated by motorways, hinting at the role of human-mediated dispersal. Indeed, the number of nests that resulted from this dispersive mechanism were significantly closer to motorways than expected by chance. To prevent the dispersal of V. velutina into Mediterranean regions, and in addition to a special attention to the advancing front, early monitoring programs should also target a buffer zone on both sides of motorways, and at freight shipping hubs.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Limb malformations in a 1982 museum collection of Pleurodeles waltl larvae

info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Transferência inteligente de instruções digitais de montagem

Mestrado em Sistemas de InformaçãoThe German maritime industry has a strong economic influence, prevailing over competitors by offering a higher quality product and a higher degree of flexibility during design and building phases. In order to maintain its competitive edge, means to increase the productivity of a ship’s construction process are researched and developed. Under the PROSPER project, an Android application running augmented reality technology was developed to assist shipbuilders in the performance of their tasks. In this work, we researched organizational models capable of holding assembly instruction information later transfered to the application. Different wireless technologies and protocols were analyzed and studied to determine the most suitable transferring mechanisms. In the end, a Node.js server capable of handling complex assembly instructions requests was developed and tested using real-word scenarios. Throughout the development process, time was devoted to security measures in the protection of the server, end connections, and all information. Two different transferring methods were developed and testes, together with improvements to the overall transfer of assembly instructionsA indústria marítima alemã tem uma forte influência econômica, prevalecendo sobre os seus concorrentes, oferecendo um produto de maior qualidade e um maior grau de flexibilidade durante as fases de conceção e construção. A fim de manter a sua vantagem competitiva, fins para aumentar a produtividade do processo de construção de um navio são investigados e desenvolvidos. No âmbito do projecto PROSPER, uma aplicação Android foi desenvolvida para ajudar, através de realidade aumentada, construtores navais no desempenho das suas funções. Neste trabalho, investigamos modelos organizacionais capazes de armazenar informação pertinentes a instruções de montagem de navios, mais tarde transferidas para a aplicação. Diferentes tecnologias e protocolos sem fio foram analisados e estudados para determinar os mecanismos mais adequados para o procedimento de transferência. No final, um servidor Node.js capaz de lidar com complexas solicitações de instruções de montagem foi desenvolvido e testado utilizando cenários reais de montagem. Durante todo o processo de desenvolvimento, medidas de segurança na proteção do servidor, conexões entre servidor e clientes, e informações foram implementadas. Dois métodos distintos de transferência foram desenvolvidos e testados, juntamente com melhorias para a transferência global de instruções de montagem

Validação de uma bateria de testes de aptidão física e desempenho motor especifica para o Andebol em Cadeira de Rodas

A avaliação da aptidão física e do desempenho motor no âmbito do desporto adaptado são de grande importância para identificar o perfil de cada atleta e, assim, oferecer melhores condições de treino que potenciem o desempenho desportivo. No entanto, são escassos os testes de aptidão física validados para população com deficiência motora, especificamente no contexto do andebol em cadeira de rodas (ACR). Deste modo, o presente estudo teve como objetivo validar uma bateria de testes de aptidão física (Agilidade; Velocidade 20m) e desempenho motor (Desempenho do bloqueio; Precisão de passes; Eficácia de remate; Condução de Bola) (Costa & Silva, 2011) para atletas de ACR, analisando a fiabilidade, reprodutibilidade e correlações dos referidos testes. A amostra foi constituída por 12 homens (M=37,58 ± DP=10,20 anos) e 2 mulheres (M=36,50 ± DP=12,02 anos) atletas de ACR que realizaram duas avaliações da bateria de testes com um intervalo de 48horas. Com a exceção do teste do bloqueio e do passe, todos os testes apresentaram adequada fiabilidade com os coeficientes de correlação intraclasse acima de 0.07. Correlações significativas foram identificadas entre os testes da bateria e a classificação funcional e o tempo de lesão. O presente estudo demonstrou que a bateria de testes pode ser recomendada para a avaliação da aptidão física e desempenho motor de atletas de ACR no contexto português.Physical fitness and motor skills assessment in the context of disability sport is crucial to identify the profile of each athlete and, therefore, to offer better training conditions to enhance sport performance. However, there is a lack of valid and reliable tests for athletes with physical disability, specifically in the context ofwheelchair handball (WH). In this way, the present study aimed to validate a physical fitness (Agility; Velocity 20m) and motor performance battery (Block Performance; Pass Precision; Shot Precision; Ball Dribling) (Costa & Silva, 2011) for WH, analysing the reliability, reproducibility and correlations of referred the tests. The sample consisted of 12 men (M=37.58 ± DP=10.20 years) and 2 women (M=36.50 ± DP=12.02 years) WH athletes who performed two evaluations of the battery with a 48 hours' interval. With the exception of the block performance and shot precision test, all tests showed adequate reliability with intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.07. Significant correlations were identified between the battery tests with the functional classification and injury time. The present study demonstrated that the battery can be recommended for the evaluation of physical fitness and motor skills of Portuguese WH athletes

Sensing Shared Places: Designing a mobile audio streaming environment

This paper addresses mobile audio streaming in the context of sharing a sense of place. This action is mediated by the network, the body and remote listening. These elements are essential in the concept and design of a platform for audio transmission (liveshout), that aims at intersecting mobility within the realms of radio, network and transmission art

Gestão de parques de estacionamento com base em tecnologias sem fios

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrónica e TelecomunicaçõesActualmente, existem inúmeros parques de estacionamento pagos espalhados pelas nossas cidades, parques esses concessionados ou explorados por Empresas ou Câmaras Municipais. A sua utilização nem sempre é pacífica e exige, quase sempre, que o Utilizador possua trocos para poder adquirir tempo de estacionamento. A crescente necessidade de modernizar e simplificar o processo de exploração e de utilização dos parques de estacionamento conduz a este projecto. Este projecto, realizado em parceria com a Micro I/O, pretende desenvolver um sistema de pagamentos de Parques de Estacionamento inovador, com base em prépagamento, que seja robusto, simples e de fácil utilização. Pretendem-se criar vantagens para o Utilizador e para a Empresa exploradora e Fiscalizadora. Este projecto compreende a utilização de várias tecnologias, desde sensores de ultra-sons, até comunicações ZigBee, passando por comunicações de proximidade sem contacto RFID. Adicionalmente, o sistema deve ter autonomia energética, por exemplo com base em painéis solares. Tendo em conta o grau de complexidade, o projecto passou por um levantamento de todas as tecnologias e pela especificação e definição da arquitectura do sistema a desenvolver. Tendo em conta que se pretende realizar um produto comercial, as decisões tomadas na sua especificação tiveram em conta também factores comerciais.Currently there are numerous car parks which are paid, all over the central areas of large or medium sized cities. These parks are operated by companies or local councils. Their use is not always trivial and most of the times requires that the user has some coins with her/him to purchase parking time. The growing need to modernize and simplify the process of deployment and use of car parks leads us to this project. This project has been developed in partnership with Micro I/O to create an innovative payment system of car parks, based on pre-payment, which should be robust, simple and easy to use. The aim is to create benefits for the user and for the enterprise operator and also for the surveillance team. This project includes the use of various technologies, from ultrasonic sensors to ZigBee communications and RFID. Power is also a concern, being solar panels a solution to analyse. Taking into account the degree of complexity, the project went through a survey of all technologies and the specification and definition of an architecture to develop the product. During this project, some decisions where taken, ruled by commercial requirements

Estudo numérico do efeito da espessura do adesivo na tenacidade à tração de juntas adesivas

A utilização de ligações adesivas tem vindo a aumentar progressivamente no âmbito de aplicações estruturais comparativamente às ligações mecânicas convencionais. Esta mudança de padrão de ligação deve-se maioritariamente às vantagens oferecidas pelas ligações adesivas. Com a evolução da indústria, é sempre necessário estudar e melhorar o produto. Para este efeito, podem-se usar técnicas como os Modelos de Dano Coesivo (MDC), aliados ao Método de Elementos Finitos (MEF), para prever a resistência de juntas adesivas. Os MDC utilizam critérios de resistência dos materiais e conceitos da mecânica da fratura para prever a iniciação do dano e para a propagação da fenda, respetivamente. Nas simulações por MDC existem várias formas de leis coesivas que podem ser usadas para modelar a camada de adesivo, conforme o material utilizado e o seu comportamento expectável. Neste âmbito, é importante a existência de métodos de análise que permitam determinar estas leis de forma fiável e que estas sejam validadas para aplicação em projeto de estruturas. Nesta dissertação estudou-se numericamente o efeito da espessura do adesivo na sua tenacidade à tração pelo ensaio Double-Cantilever Beam (DCB). De facto, as propriedades coesivas dos adesivos variam bastante com a espessura do adesivo e dos aderentes a ligar, pelo que é de extrema importância conhecer estes efeitos. Foram utilizados dados experimentais já disponíveis para obter as leis coesivas do adesivo pelo método direto. Foi realizada uma modelação numérica por MDC, recorrendo à lei triangular, para reproduzir o comportamento do adesivo e posteriormente comparar com o comportamento verificado nos ensaios experimentais fornecidos. Por fim, foram inseridas variações nos parâmetros coesivos de forma a verificar a sua influência no comportamento do adesivo. O estudo revelou uma grande proximidade entre os dados experimentais disponibilizados e as modelações realizadas, validando as leis coesivas do adesivo e a forma de lei utilizada. Foi também possível verificar a influência dos parâmetros coesivos nos resultados da simulação, bem como a relativa importância de cada um no comportamento dos provetes à tração.The use of adhesive joints has been progressively increasing in the scope of structural applications compared to conventional mechanical connections. This change in joint pattern is mainly due to the advantages offered by adhesive joints. With the evolution of the industry, it is always necessary to study and improve the product. For this purpose, techniques such as Cohesive Zone Models (CZM), combined with the Finite Element Method (FEM), can be used to predict the strength of adhesive joints. CZM use strength of materials criteria and concepts of fracture mechanics to predict the initiation of damage and the crack propagation, respectively. In CZM simulations, there are several cohesive law shapes that can be used to model the adhesive layer, depending on the material used and its expected behaviour. In this context, it is important to have methods of analysis that allow these laws to be reliably determined and that these are validated for application in structural design. In this thesis, the adhesive thickness effect on its tensile toughness was numerically studied by the Double-Cantilever Beam (DCB) test. In fact, the cohesive properties of adhesives widely vary with the adhesive thickness and the adherends to be bonded, so it is extremely important to know these effects. Experimental data already available were used to obtain the cohesive laws of the adhesive by the direct method. Numerical modeling by CZM was undertaken, using the triangular law, to reproduce the behavior of the adhesive and then compare it with the behavior verified in the provided experimental tests. Finally, variations in the cohesive parameters were tested in order to verify their influence on the behavior of the adhesive. The study revealed a good correspondence between the experimental data made available and the models performed, validating the cohesive laws of the adhesive and the used law shape. It was also possible to verify the influence of the cohesive parameters on the simulation results, as well as the relative importance of each one in the tensile behavior of the specimens

On the Dynamics of Trade Reform

The empirical evidence on trade reforms suggests that these have a surprisingly small impact on the country's industrial configuration. This industrial structure inertia is difficult to rationalize in standard trade models. This paper develops a two-sector industry dynamics model in which industrial composition inertia arises naturally. The model is then used to study the consequences of different types of trade reforms (e.g. permanent, temporary, gradual, pre-announced) on investment, employment composition, and income distribution.