Risk and accuracy of outpatient-identified hypoxaemia for death among suspected child pneumonia cases in rural Bangladesh: a multifacility prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Hypoxaemic pneumonia mortality risk in low-income and middle-income countries is high in children who have been hospitalised, but unknown among outpatient children. We sought to establish the outpatient burden, mortality risk, and prognostic accuracy of death from hypoxaemia in children with suspected pneumonia in Bangladesh. METHODS: We conducted a prospective community-based cohort study encompassing three upazila (subdistrict) health complex catchment areas in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Children aged 3-35 months participating in a community surveillance programme and presenting to one of three upazila health complex Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) outpatient clinics with an acute illness and signs of difficult breathing (defined as suspected pneumonia) were enrolled in the study; because lower respiratory tract infection mortality mainly occurs in children younger than 1 year, the primary study population comprised children aged 3-11 months. Study physicians recorded WHO IMCI pneumonia guideline clinical signs and peripheral arterial oxyhaemoglobin saturations (SpO2) in room air. They treated children with pneumonia with antibiotics (oral amoxicillin [40 mg/kg per dose twice per day for 5-7 days, as per local practice]), and recommended oxygen, parenteral antibiotics, and hospitalisation for those with an SpO2 of less than 90%, WHO IMCI danger signs, or severe malnutrition. Community health workers documented the children's vital status and the date of any vital status changes during routine household surveillance (one visit to each household every 2 months). The primary outcome was death at 2 weeks after enrolment in children aged 3-11 months (primary study population) and 12-35 months (secondary study population). Primary analyses included estimating the outpatient prevalence, mortality risk, and prognostic accuracy of hypoxaemia for death in children aged 3-11 months with suspected pneumonia. Risk ratios were produced by fitting a multivariable model that regressed predefined SpO2 ranges (<90%, 90-93%, and 94-100%) on the primary 2-week mortality outcome (binary outcome) using Poisson models with robust variance estimation. We established the prognostic accuracy of WHO IMCI guidelines for death with and without varying SpO2 thresholds. FINDINGS: Participants were recruited between Sept 1, 2015, to Aug 31, 2017. During the study period, a total of 7440 children aged 3-35 months with the first suspected pneumonia episode were enrolled, of whom 3848 (54·3%) with an attempted pulse oximeter measurement and 2-week outcome were included in our primary study population of children aged 3-11-months. Among children aged 3-11 months, an SpO2 of less than 90% occurred in 102 (2·7%) of 3848 children, an SpO2 of 90-93% occurred in 306 (8·0%) children, a failed SpO2 measurement occurred in 67 (1·7%) children, and 24 (0·6%) children with suspected pneumonia died. Compared with an SpO2 of 94-100% (3373 [87·7%] of 3848), the adjusted risk ratio for death was 10·3 (95% CI 3·2-32·3; p<0·001) for an SpO2 of less than 90%, 4·3 (1·5-11·8; p=0·005) for an SpO2 of 90-93%, and 11·4 (3·1-41·4; p<0·001) for a failed measurement. When not considering pulse oximetry, of the children who died, WHO IMCI guidelines identified only 25·0% (95% CI 9·7-46·7; six of 24 children) as eligible for referral to hospital. For identifying deaths, in children with an SpO2 of less than 90% WHO IMCI guidelines had a 41·7% sensitivity (95% CI 22·1-63·4) and 89·7% specificity (88·7-90·7); for children with an SpO2 of less than 90% or measurement failure the guidelines had a 54·2% sensitivity (32·8-74·4) and 88·3% specificity (87·2-89·3); and for children with an SpO2 of less than 94% or measurement failure the guidelines had a 62·5% sensitivity (40·6-81·2) and 81·3% specificity (80·0-82·5). INTERPRETATION: These findings support pulse oximeter use during the outpatient care of young children with suspected pneumonia in Bangladesh as well as the re-evaluation of the WHO IMCI currently recommended threshold of an SpO2 less than 90% for hospital referral. FUNDING: Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health (K01TW009988), The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1084286 and OPP1117483), and GlaxoSmithKline (90063241)

Clinical hypoxemia score for outpatient child pneumonia care lacking pulse oximetry in Africa and South Asia

Background: Pulse oximeters are not routinely available in outpatient clinics in low- and middle-income countries. We derived clinical scores to identify hypoxemic child pneumonia. / Methods: This was a retrospective pooled analysis of two outpatient datasets of 3–35 month olds with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined pneumonia in Bangladesh and Malawi. We constructed, internally validated, and compared fit & discrimination of four models predicting SpO2 < 93% and <90%: (1) Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines, (2) WHO-composite guidelines, (3) Independent variable least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO); (4) Composite variable LASSO. / Results: 12,712 observations were included. The independent and composite LASSO models discriminated moderately (both C-statistic 0.77) between children with a SpO2 < 93% and ≥94%; model predictive capacities remained moderate after adjusting for potential overfitting (C-statistic 0.74 and 0.75). The IMCI and WHO-composite models had poorer discrimination (C-statistic 0.56 and 0.68) and identified 20.6% and 56.8% of SpO2 < 93% cases. The highest score stratum of the independent and composite LASSO models identified 46.7% and 49.0% of SpO2 < 93% cases. Both LASSO models had similar performance for a SpO2 < 90%. / Conclusions: In the absence of pulse oximeters, both LASSO models better identified outpatient hypoxemic pneumonia cases than the WHO guidelines. Score external validation and implementation are needed

Clinical hypoxemia score for outpatient child pneumonia care lacking pulse oximetry in Africa and South Asia

BackgroundPulse oximeters are not routinely available in outpatient clinics in low- and middle-income countries. We derived clinical scores to identify hypoxemic child pneumonia.MethodsThis was a retrospective pooled analysis of two outpatient datasets of 3–35 month olds with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined pneumonia in Bangladesh and Malawi. We constructed, internally validated, and compared fit &amp; discrimination of four models predicting SpO2 &lt; 93% and &lt;90%: (1) Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines, (2) WHO-composite guidelines, (3) Independent variable least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO); (4) Composite variable LASSO.Results12,712 observations were included. The independent and composite LASSO models discriminated moderately (both C-statistic 0.77) between children with a SpO2 &lt; 93% and ≥94%; model predictive capacities remained moderate after adjusting for potential overfitting (C-statistic 0.74 and 0.75). The IMCI and WHO-composite models had poorer discrimination (C-statistic 0.56 and 0.68) and identified 20.6% and 56.8% of SpO2 &lt; 93% cases. The highest score stratum of the independent and composite LASSO models identified 46.7% and 49.0% of SpO2 &lt; 93% cases. Both LASSO models had similar performance for a SpO2 &lt; 90%.ConclusionsIn the absence of pulse oximeters, both LASSO models better identified outpatient hypoxemic pneumonia cases than the WHO guidelines. Score external validation and implementation are needed

Sero-prevalence and risk factors for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 infection in women and children in a rural district of Bangladesh: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Bangladesh reported its first COVID-19 case on March 8, 2020. Despite lockdowns and promoting behavioural interventions, as of December 31, 2021, Bangladesh reported 1.5 million confirmed cases and 27 904 COVID-19-related deaths. To understand the course of the pandemic and identify risk factors for SARs-Cov-2 infection, we conducted a cohort study from November 2020 to December 2021 in rural Bangladesh. METHODS: After obtaining informed consent and collecting baseline data on COVID-19 knowledge, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, and lifestyle, we collected data on COVID-like illness and care-seeking weekly for 54 weeks for women (n = 2683) and their children (n = 2433). Between March and July 2021, we tested all participants for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using ROCHE's Elecsys® test kit. We calculated seropositivity rates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) separately for women and children. In addition, we calculated unadjusted and adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% CI of seropositivity for different age and risk groups using log-binomial regression models. RESULTS: Overall, about one-third of women (35.8%, 95% CI = 33.7-37.9) and one-fifth of children (21.3%, 95% CI = 19.2-23.6) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The seroprevalence rate doubled for women and tripled for children between March 2021 and July 2021. Compared to women and children with the highest household wealth (HHW) tertile, both women and children from poorer households had a lower risk of infection (RR, 95% CI for lowest HHW tertile women (0.83 (0.71-0.97)) and children (0.75 (0.57-0.98)). Most infections were asymptomatic or mild. In addition, the risk of infection among women was higher if she reported chewing tobacco (RR = 1.19,95% CI = 1.03-1.38) and if her husband had an occupation requiring him to work indoors (RR = 1.16,  95% CI = 1.02-1.32). The risk of infection was higher among children if paternal education was >5 years (RR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.10-1.71) than in children with a paternal education of ≤5 years. CONCLUSIONS: We provided prospectively collected population-based data, which could contribute to designing feasible strategies against COVID-19 tailored to high-risk groups. The most feasible strategy may be promoting preventive care practices; however, collecting data on reported practices is inadequate. More in-depth understanding of the factors related to adoption and adherence to the practices is essential

Population-based incidence and serotype distribution of invasive pneumococcal disease prior to introduction of conjugate pneumococcal vaccine in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND:Bangladesh introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-10) in 2015. We measured population-based incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) prior to introduction of PCV-10 to provide a benchmark against which the impact of PCV-10 can be assessed. METHODS:We conducted population, facility and laboratory-based surveillance in children 0-59 months of age in three rural sub-districts of Sylhet district of Bangladesh from January 2014 to June 2015. All children received two-monthly home visits with one week recall for morbidity and care seeking. Children attending the three Upazilla Health Complexes (UHC, sub-district hospitals) in the surveillance area were screened for suspected IPD. Blood samples were collected from suspected IPD cases for culture and additionally, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was collected from suspected meningitis cases for culture and molecular testing. Pneumococcal isolates were serotyped by Quellung. Serotyping of cases detected by molecular testing was done by sequential multiplex polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS:Children under surveillance contributed to 126,657 child years of observations. Sixty-three thousand three hundred eighty-four illness episodes were assessed in the UHCs. Blood specimens were collected from 8,668 suspected IPD cases and CSF from 177 suspected meningitis cases. Streptococcus pneumoniae was isolated from 46 cases; 32 (70%) were vaccine serotype. The population-based incidence of IPD was 36.3/100,000 child years of observations. About 80% of the cases occurred in children below two years of age. DISCUSSION:IPD was common in rural Bangladesh suggesting the potential benefit of an effective vaccine. Measurement of the burden of IPD requires multiple surveillance modalities

Protocol for validation of the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) for children under 3 years of age in seven countries.

IntroductionChildren's early development is affected by caregiving experiences, with lifelong health and well-being implications. Governments and civil societies need population-based measures to monitor children's early development and ensure that children receive the care needed to thrive. To this end, the WHO developed the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) to measure children's early development up to 3 years of age. The GSED includes three measures for population and programmatic level measurement: (1) short form (SF) (caregiver report), (2) long form (LF) (direct administration) and (3) psychosocial form (PF) (caregiver report). The primary aim of this protocol is to validate the GSED SF and LF. Secondary aims are to create preliminary reference scores for the GSED SF and LF, validate an adaptive testing algorithm and assess the feasibility and preliminary validity of the GSED PF.Methods and analysisWe will conduct the validation in seven countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Pakistan, The Netherlands, People's Republic of China, United Republic of Tanzania), varying in geography, language, culture and income through a 1-year prospective design, combining cross-sectional and longitudinal methods with 1248 children per site, stratified by age and sex. The GSED generates an innovative common metric (Developmental Score: D-score) using the Rasch model and a Development for Age Z-score (DAZ). We will evaluate six psychometric properties of the GSED SF and LF: concurrent validity, predictive validity at 6 months, convergent and discriminant validity, and test-retest and inter-rater reliability. We will evaluate measurement invariance by comparing differential item functioning and differential test functioning across sites.Ethics and disseminationThis study has received ethical approval from the WHO (protocol GSED validation 004583 20.04.2020) and approval in each site. Study results will be disseminated through webinars and publications from WHO, international organisations, academic journals and conference proceedings.Registration detailsOpen Science Framework https://osf.io/ on 19 November 2021 (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/KX5T7; identifier: osf-registrations-kx5t7-v1)

Protocol for validation of the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) for children under 3 years of age in seven countries

Introduction Children's early development is affected by caregiving experiences, with lifelong health and well-being implications. Governments and civil societies need population-based measures to monitor children's early development and ensure that children receive the care needed to thrive. To this end, the WHO developed the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) to measure children's early development up to 3 years of age. The GSED includes three measures for population and programmatic level measurement: (1) short form (SF) (caregiver report), (2) long form (LF) (direct administration) and (3) psychosocial form (PF) (caregiver report). The primary aim of this protocol is to validate the GSED SF and LF. Secondary aims are to create preliminary reference scores for the GSED SF and LF, validate an adaptive testing algorithm and assess the feasibility and preliminary validity of the GSED PF. Methods and analysis We will conduct the validation in seven countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Pakistan, The Netherlands, People's Republic of China, United Republic of Tanzania), varying in geography, language, culture and income through a 1-year prospective design, combining cross-sectional and longitudinal methods with 1248 children per site, stratified by age and sex. The GSED generates an innovative common metric (Developmental Score: D-score) using the Rasch model and a Development for Age Z-score (DAZ). We will evaluate six psychometric properties of the GSED SF and LF: concurrent validity, predictive validity at 6 months, convergent and discriminant validity, and test-retest and inter-rater reliability. We will evaluate measurement invariance by comparing differential item functioning and differential test functioning across sites. Ethics and dissemination This study has received ethical approval from the WHO (protocol GSED validation 004583 20.04.2020) and approval in each site. Study results will be disseminated through webinars and publications from WHO, international organisations, academic journals and conference proceedings. Registration details Open Science Framework https://osf.io/ on 19 November 2021 (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/KX5T7; identifier: osf-registrations-kx5t7-v1)

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns : a descriptive analysis of subnational, population‐based birth cohorts for 238 143 live births in low‐ and middle‐income settings from 2000 to 2017

Objective: We aimed to understand the mortality risks of vulnerable newborns (defined as preterm and/or born weighing smaller or larger compared to a standard population), in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Design: Descriptive multi-country, secondary analysis of individual-level study data of babies born since 2000. Setting: Sixteen subnational, population-based studies from nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America. Population: Live birth neonates. Methods: We categorically defined five vulnerable newborn types based on size (large-or appropriate-or small-for-gestational age [LGA, AGA, SGA]), and term (T) and preterm (PT): T + LGA, T + SGA, PT + LGA, PT + AGA, and PT + SGA, with T + AGA (reference). A 10-type definition included low birthweight (LBW) and non-LBW, and a four-type definition collapsed AGA/LGA into one category. We performed imputation for missing birthweights in 13 of the studies. Main Outcome Measures: Median and interquartile ranges by study for the prevalence, mortality rates and relative mortality risks for the four, six and ten type classification. Results: There were 238 143 live births with known neonatal status. Four of the six types had higher mortality risk: T + SGA (median relative risk [RR] 2.8, interquartile range [IQR] 2.0–3.2), PT + LGA (median RR 7.3, IQR 2.3–10.4), PT + AGA (median RR 6.0, IQR 4.4–13.2) and PT + SGA (median RR 10.4, IQR 8.6–13.9). T + SGA, PT + LGA and PT + AGA babies who were LBW, had higher risk compared with non-LBW babies. Conclusions: Small and/or preterm babies in LIMCs have a considerably increased mortality risk compared with babies born at term and larger. This classification system may advance the understanding of the social determinants and biomedical risk factors along with improved treatment that is critical for newborn health