Integrating remote sensing datasets into ecological modelling: a Bayesian approach

Process-based models have been used to simulate 3-dimensional complexities of forest ecosystems and their temporal changes, but their extensive data requirement and complex parameterisation have often limited their use for practical management applications. Increasingly, information retrieved using remote sensing techniques can help in model parameterisation and data collection by providing spatially and temporally resolved forest information. In this paper, we illustrate the potential of Bayesian calibration for integrating such data sources to simulate forest production. As an example, we use the 3-PG model combined with hyperspectral, LiDAR, SAR and field-based data to simulate the growth of UK Corsican pine stands. Hyperspectral, LiDAR and SAR data are used to estimate LAI dynamics, tree height and above ground biomass, respectively, while the Bayesian calibration provides estimates of uncertainties to model parameters and outputs. The Bayesian calibration contrasts with goodness-of-fit approaches, which do not provide uncertainties to parameters and model outputs. Parameters and the data used in the calibration process are presented in the form of probability distributions, reflecting our degree of certainty about them. After the calibration, the distributions are updated. To approximate posterior distributions (of outputs and parameters), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling approach is used (25 000 steps). A sensitivity analysis is also conducted between parameters and outputs. Overall, the results illustrate the potential of a Bayesian framework for truly integrative work, both in the consideration of field-based and remotely sensed datasets available and in estimating parameter and model output uncertainties

Effect of Pressure on the Activity Coefficients of Au and Other Siderophile Elements in Liquid Fe-Si Alloys

Light elements can alloy into the iron cores of terrestrial planetary bodies. It is estimated that the Earths core contains ~10% of a light element, most likely a combination of S, C, Si, and O with Si probably being the most abundant. Si dissolved into Fe metal liquids can have a significant influence on the activity coefficients of siderophile elements, and thus the partitioning behavior of those elements between the core and mantle. Many of these elements have been investigated extensively at ambient pressure, and studies up to 1 GPa are becoming more common, but few have been studied at pressures above this. The formation of the Earths core has been estimated to have formed at pressures between 40-60 GPa, so investigating the effect pressure has on Sis influence on siderophile element partitioning is important for modeling core formation in the Earth and smaller planets. Pressure is well known to influence volumetric properties of metallic and silicate liquids, and oxygen fugacity (e.g., [10,11]), but less is known about its effect on activity coefficients (e.g., [12]). Some activity coefficients depend strongly upon the Si content of Fe liquids, and the concentration of siderophile elements such as P, Sb, and As in the terrestrial mantle is easily influenced by dissolved Si in the core. Thus, isolating the effect of pressure on activity coefficients in general is critical in quantitative analysis of core formation models. In this work, we investigate the effect variable Si content has on the partitioning of Au between Fe metal and silicate melt at 10 GPa and 2373 K, with the intention of comparing the behavior to that already investigated at lower pressures. In addition, P, V, Mn, Ga, Zn, Cd, Sn, W, Pb, and Nb were also measured and could thus be included in the assessment of potential pressure effects

Trends in total column ozone measurements

It is important to ensure the best available data are used in any determination of possible trends in total ozone in order to have the most accurate estimates of any trends and the associated uncertainties. Accordingly, the existing total ozone records were examined in considerable detail. Once the best data set has been produced, the statistical analysis must examine the data for any effects that might indicate changes in the behavior of global total ozone. The changes at any individual measuring station could be local in nature, and herein, particular attention was paid to the seasonal and latitudinal variations of total ozone, because two dimensional photochemical models indicate that any changes in total ozone would be most pronounced at high latitudes during the winter months. The conclusions derived from this detailed examination of available total ozone can be split into two categories, one concerning the quality and the other the statistical analysis of the total ozone record

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome: characteristic features of the infected fetus

Pregnant gilts were infected at 90 days of gestation with porcine reproductive and respiratory virus (PRRSV) isolate SD-23983. Fetuses recovered between 109 and 112 days of gestation were analyzed for the presence of PRRSV. The results showed that not all fetuses were infected, and that infected fetuses tended to be clustered within the uterine horns, suggesting that virus is spread from fetus to fetus. Even though affected litters exhibited different degrees of gross pathology, the presence of an anatomical abnormality was not an identifier of an infected fetus. Analysis of virus replication in individual tissues identified the thymus as the principal site of PRRSV replication. The results show that PRRSV infection in the developing fetus follows a unique course and that PRRSVinduced alterations may be the result of the effect of PRRSV on maternal tissues. These factors need to be taken into consideration when diagnosing PRRSV infection as the cause for aborted and stillborn fetuses.; Swine Day, 2005, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, 200

Atmospheric effects of the emerging mainland Chinese transportation system at and beyond the regional scale

Local surface travel needs in the People's Republic of China (mainland China) have traditionally been met largely by nonpolluting bicycles. A major automobile manufacturing/importing effort has begun in the country over the last decade, and planning documents indicate that the Chinese may strive to acquire more than 100 million vehicles early in the next century. By analogy with large automotive fleets already existing in the western world, both regional and global scale pollution effects are to be expected from the increase. The present work adopts the latest projections of Chinese automobile manufacture and performs some quantitative assessments of the extent of pollution generation. Focus for the investigation is placed upon the oxidant ozone. Emissions of the precursor species nitrogen oxides and volatile organics are constructed based on data for the current automotive sector in the eastern portion of the United States. Ozone production is first estimated from measured values for continental/oceanic scale yields relative to precursor oxidation. The estimates are then corroborated through idealized two dimensional modeling of the photochemistry taking place in springtime air flow off the Asian land mass and toward the Pacific Ocean. The projected fleet sizes could increase coastal and remote oceanic ozone concentrations by tens of parts per billion (ppb) in the lower troposphere. Influences on the tropospheric aerosol system and on the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are treated peripherally. Nitrogen oxides created during the vehicular internal combustion process will contribute to nitrate pollution levels measured in the open Pacific. The potential for soot and fugitive dust increases should be considered as the automotive infrastructure develops. Since the emerging Chinese automotive transportation system will represent a substantial addition to the global fleet and all the carbon in gasoline is eventually oxidized completely, a significant rise in global carbon dioxide inputs will ensue as well. Some policy issues are treated preliminary. The assumption is made that alterations to regional oxidant/aerosol systems and to terrestrial climate are conceivable. The likelihood that the Chinese can achieve the latest vehicle fleet goals is discussed, from the points of view of new production, positive pollution feedbacks from a growing automobile industry, and known petroleum reserves. Vehicular fuel and maintenance options lying before the Chinese are outlines and compared. To provide some perspective on the magnitude of the environmental changes associated with an Asian automotive buildup, recent estimates of the effects of future air traffic over the Pacific Rim are described

Comparison of free tropospheric western Pacific air mass classification schemes for the PEM-West A experiment

During September/October 1991, NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) conducted an airborne field measurement program (PEM-West A) in the troposphere over the western Pacific Ocean. In this paper we describe and use the relative abundance of the combustion products C2H2 and CO to classify air masses encountered during PEM-West A based on the degree that these tracers were processed by the combined effects of photochemical reactions and dynamical mixing (termed the degree of atmospheric processing). A large number of trace compounds (e.g., C2H6, C3H8, C6H6, NOy, and O3) are found to be well correlated with the degree of atmospheric processing that is reflected by changes in the ratio of C2H2/CO over the range of values from ∼0.3 to 2.0 (parts per trillion volume) C2H2/ (parts per billion volume) CO. This C2H2/CO-based classification scheme is compared to model simulations and to two independent classification schemes based on air mass back-trajectory analyses and lidar profiles of O3 and aerosols. In general, these schemes agree well, and in combination they suggest that the functional dependence that other observed species exhibit with respect to the C2H2/CO atmospheric processing scale can be used to study the origin, sources, and sinks of trace species and to derive several important findings. First, the degree of atmospheric processing is found to be dominated by dilution associated with atmospheric mixing, which is found to primarily occur through the vertical mixing of relatively recent emissions of surface layer trace species. Photochemical reactions play their major role by influencing the background concentrations of trace species that are entrained during the mixing (i.e., dilution) process. Second, a significant noncontinental source(s) of NO (and NOx) in the free troposphere is evident. In particular, the enhanced NO mixing ratios that were observed in convected air masses are attributed to either emissions from lightning or the rapid recycling of NOy compounds. Third, nonsoluble trace species emitted in the continental boundary layer, such as CO and hydrocarbons, are vertically transported to the upper troposphere as efficiently as they are to the midtroposphere. In addition, the mixing ratios of CO and hydrocarbons in the upper troposphere over the western Pacific may reflect a significant contribution from northern hemisphere land areas other than Asia. Finally, we believe that these results can be valuable for the quantitative evaluation of the vertical transport processes that are usually parameterized in models. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union