Long-Lived Pluvial Episodes during Deposition of the Navajo Sandstone

The Navajo Sandstone of the American Southwest was deposited at approximately 190 Ma in a giant, subtropical dune field near the western margin of Pangea. From this unit, we report thick intervals of dune cross-strata that were churned by insects and trampled by reptiles. Although dunes continued to migrate freely, the distribution of trace fossils shows that plant life in wet interdune areas sustained high levels of animal activity on the dunes for many thousands of years. We interpret this suite of structures as the record of a pluvial episode climatologically similar to the period of “greening” in the Sahara 4000–10,000 yr ago. A high percentage of the rainfall on the Navajo erg recharged the water table and led to the development of highly dilute, local groundwater flow systems that discharged into interdune areas

An approach to hydrogeological modeling of a large system of groundwater-fed lakes and wetlands in the Nebraska Sand Hills, USA

The feasibility of a hydrogeological modeling approach to simulate several thousand shallow groundwater-fed lakes and wetlands without explicitly considering their connection with groundwater is investigated at the regional scale (~40,000 km2) through an application in the semi-arid Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH), USA. Hydraulic heads are compared to local land-surface elevations from a digital elevation model (DEM) within a geographic information system to assess locations of lakes and wetlands. The water bodies are inferred where hydraulic heads exceed, or are above a certain depth below, the land surface. Numbers of lakes and/or wetlands are determined via image cluster analysis applied to the same 30-m grid as the DEM after interpolating both simulated and estimated heads. The regional water-table map was used for groundwater model calibration, considering MODIS-based net groundwater recharge data. Resulting values of simulated total baseflow to interior streams are within 1% of observed values. Locations, areas, and numbers of simulated lakes and wetlands are compared with Landsat 2005 survey data and with areas of lakes from a 1979–1980 Landsat survey and the National Hydrography Dataset. This simplified process-based modeling approach avoids the need for field-based morphology or water-budget data from individual lakes or wetlands, or determination of lake-groundwater exchanges, yet it reproduces observed lake-wetland characteristics at regional groundwater management scales. A better understanding of the NSH hydrogeology is attained, and the approach shows promise for use in simulations of groundwater-fed lake and wetland characteristics in other large groundwater systems. Includes supplementary materials

Precipitation Extremes in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI exceed 0.5 for all except the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII). However, significant overestimations or underestimations exist over localized areas in the region. Projected changes in Total annual Precipitation (PRCPTOT) and the annual number of heavy (\u3e10 mm) and very heavy (\u3e20 mm) precipitation days by 2069–2098 show a general north-south pattern, with decreases over the southern half and increases over the northern half of the GHA. These changes are often greatest over parts of Somalia, Eritrea, the Ethiopian highlands and southern Tanzania. Maximum one- and five-day precipitation totals over a year and SDII (ratio of PRCPTOT to rainy days) are projected to increase over a majority of the GHA, including areas where PRCPTOT is projected to decrease, suggesting fewer, but heavier rainy days in the future. Changes in the annual sum of daily precipitation above the 95th and 99th percentiles are statistically significant over a few locations, with the largest projected decrease/increase over Eritrea and northwestern Sudan/Somalia. Projected changes in Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) suggest longer periods of dryness over the majority of the GHA, except the central portions covering northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia and Somalia. Substantial increases in CDD are located over southern Tanzania and the Ethiopian highlands. The magnitude and the spatial extent of statistically-significant changes in all MPEI increase from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, and the separation between positive and negative changes becomes clearer under RCP8.5

Precipitation Extremes in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI exceed 0.5 for all except the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII). However, significant overestimations or underestimations exist over localized areas in the region. Projected changes in Total annual Precipitation (PRCPTOT) and the annual number of heavy (\u3e10 mm) and very heavy (\u3e20 mm) precipitation days by 2069–2098 show a general north-south pattern, with decreases over the southern half and increases over the northern half of the GHA. These changes are often greatest over parts of Somalia, Eritrea, the Ethiopian highlands and southern Tanzania. Maximum one- and five-day precipitation totals over a year and SDII (ratio of PRCPTOT to rainy days) are projected to increase over a majority of the GHA, including areas where PRCPTOT is projected to decrease, suggesting fewer, but heavier rainy days in the future. Changes in the annual sum of daily precipitation above the 95th and 99th percentiles are statistically significant over a few locations, with the largest projected decrease/increase over Eritrea and northwestern Sudan/Somalia. Projected changes in Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) suggest longer periods of dryness over the majority of the GHA, except the central portions covering northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia and Somalia. Substantial increases in CDD are located over southern Tanzania and the Ethiopian highlands. The magnitude and the spatial extent of statistically-significant changes in all MPEI increase from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, and the separation between positive and negative changes becomes clearer under RCP8.5

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Surface Characteristics on the Greenland Ice Sheet as Derived from Passive Microwave Observations

The primary goals of this research were to identify and begin to comprehend the spatial and temporal variations in surface characteristics of the Greenland ice sheet using passive microwave observations, physically-based models of the snowpack and field observations of snowpack and firn properties

Understanding and Assessing Climate Change: Implications for Nebraska

This report was commissioned by the UNL Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources (IANR) with the objective of evaluating and summarizing the existing scientific literature related to our changing climate. Scientists from the IANR’s School of Natural Resources and the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences in the College of Arts and Sciences have been the principal contributors to the report under the able leadership of long-time, internationally leading applied climate scientist Professor Don Wilhite. Their efforts have resulted in a timely and seminal reference for state and local policy-makers, government agency leaders, private industry, and indeed all citizens of our great state. Globally, we face significant economic, social, and environmental risks as we confront the challenges associated with climate change. The body of scientific evidence confirms with a high degree of certainty that human activities in the form of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, changes in land use, and other factors are the primary cause for the warming that the planet has experienced, especially in recent decades. Is there a debate within the scientific community with regard to observed changes in climate and human activities as the principal causal factor? The short answer here is “no”, at least certainly not among climate scientists—that is, those scientists who have actual expertise in the study of climate and climate change. For more than a decade, there has been broad and overwhelming consensus within the climate science community that the human-induced effects on climate change are both very real and very large. The debate in 2014 is restricted to precisely how these changes will play out and what actions we will need to take to adapt to and mitigate the effects of these changes. The magnitude and rapidity of the projected changes in climate are unprecedented. The implications of these changes for the health of our planet, and the legacy we will leave to our children, our grandchildren and future generations are of vital concern. Therefore, it is imperative that we develop strategies now to adapt to the multitude of changes we are experiencing and will continue to experience in our climate. This process of adaptation must begin at the local level, where these changes are being observed and their impacts felt. However, global agreements on the reduction of GHG emissions are a critical part of the solution in terms of mitigating as much future warming as possible. The approach taken in this report is to review the voluminous scientific literature on the subject and interpret—given time and resource constraints—our current understanding of the science of climate change and the implications of projections of climate change for Nebraska. The goal of this report is to inform policy makers, natural resource managers, and the public about 1) the state of the science on climate change, 2) current projections for ongoing changes over the twenty-first century, 3) current and potential future impacts, and 4) the management and policy implications of these changes. Hopefully, this report will lead to a higher degree of awareness and the initiation of timely and appropriate strategic actions that enable Nebraskans to prepare for and adapt to current and future changes in our climate

Surficial fractures in the Navajo sandstone, south-western USA: the roles of thermal cycles, rainstorms, granular disintegration, and iterative cracking

Deep (\u3e 5 m) sheeting fractures in the Navajo sandstone are evident at numerous sites in southern Utah and derive from tectonic stresses. Strong diurnal thermal cycles are, however, the likely triggers for shallow (\u3c 0.3 m) sheeting fractures. Data from subsurface thermal sensors reveal that large temperature differences between sensors at 2 and 15 cm depth on clear summer afternoons are as great as those that trigger sheeting fractures in exposed California granite. Extensive polygonal patterns in the Navajo sandstone are composed of surface-perpendicular fractures and were produced by contractile stresses. Numerous studies have shown that porewater diminishes the tensile strength of sandstone. Based on our thermal records, we propose that cooling during monsoonal rainstorms triggers polygonal fracturing of temporarily weakened rock. On steep outcrops, polygonal patterns are rectilinear and orthogonal, with T-vertices. Lower-angle slopes host hexagonal patterns (defined by the dominance of Y-vertices). Intermediate patterns with rectangles and hexagons of similar scale are common. We posit that outcropping fractures are advancing downward by iterative steps, and that hexagons on sandstone surfaces (like prismatic columns of basalt) have evolved from ancestral orthogonal polygons of similar scale. In lava flows, fractures elongate intermittently as they follow a steep thermal gradient (the source of stress) as it rapidly moves through the rock mass. In our model, a steep, surficial thermal gradient descends through unfractured sandstone, but at the slow pace of granular disintegration. Through time, as the friable rock on stable slopes erodes, iterative cracking advances into new space. Hexagonal patterns form as new fractures, imperfectly guided by the older ones, propagate in new directions, and vertices drift into a configuration that minimizes the ratio of fracture length to polygon area

Mapping Heat Vulnerability Index Based on Different Urbanization Levels in Nebraska, USA

Heatwaves cause excess mortality and physiological impacts on humans throughout the world, and climate change will intensify and increase the frequency of heat events. Many adaptation and mitigation studies use spatial distribution of highly vulnerable local populations to inform heat reduction and response plans. However, most available heat vulnerability studies focus on urban areas with high heat intensification by Urban Heat Islands (UHIs). Rural areas encompass different environmental and socioeconomic issues that require alternate analyses of vulnerability. We categorized Nebraska census tracts into four urbanization levels, then conducted factor analyses on each group and captured different patterns of socioeconomic vulnerabilities among resultant Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs). While disability is the major component of HVI in two urbanized classes, lower education, and races other than white have higher contributions in HVI for the two rural classes. To account for environmental vulnerability of HVI, we considered different land type combinations for each urban class based on their percentage areas and their differences in heat intensifications. Our results demonstrate different combinations of initial variables in heat vulnerability among urban classes of Nebraska and clustering of high and low heat vulnerable areas within the highest urbanized sections. Less urbanized areas show no spatial clustering of HVI. More studies with separation on urbanization level of residence can give insights into different socioeconomic vulnerability patterns in rural and urban areas, while also identifying changes in environmental variables that better capture heat intensification in rural settings

Statistics for the Evaluation and Comparison of Models

Copyright 1985 by the American Geophysical Union.Procedures that may be used to evaluate the operational performance of a wide spectrum of geophysical models are introduced. Primarily using a complementary set of difference measures, both model accuracy and precision can be meaningfully estimated, regardless of whether the model predictions are manifesteda s scalars,d irections,o r vectors.I t is additionally suggestedth at the reliability of the accuracy and precision measures can be determined from bootstrap estimates of confidence and significance. Recommendedp roceduresa re illustrated with a comparativee valuation of two models that estimate wind velocity over the South Atlantic Bight